Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#244
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.0#256
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 8.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 28.5% 57.6% 26.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.1% 64.4% 41.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 9.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 3.4% 9.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round3.8% 8.5% 3.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 410 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   @ Grand Canyon L 62-77 7%    
  Nov 08, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 64-77 11%    
  Nov 13, 2024 79   @ Colorado L 61-75 9%    
  Nov 15, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. L 60-70 20%    
  Nov 18, 2024 315   Idaho St. W 67-60 74%    
  Nov 22, 2024 23   @ UCLA L 54-73 4%    
  Nov 26, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine L 66-70 36%    
  Nov 30, 2024 314   @ Pacific W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 05, 2024 245   Long Beach St. W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 183   @ UC Riverside L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 15, 2024 317   Denver W 76-68 74%    
  Dec 22, 2024 177   Wyoming L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 02, 2025 239   Cal St. Northridge W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 162   UC San Diego L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 191   @ UC Davis L 63-69 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 192   Hawaii W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 16, 2025 103   @ UC Irvine L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 245   @ Long Beach St. L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-61 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 167   UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 02, 2025 192   @ Hawaii L 62-68 33%    
  Feb 06, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Northridge L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 191   UC Davis W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 345   Cal Poly W 70-59 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 20, 2025 167   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 103   UC Irvine L 65-71 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 162   @ UC San Diego L 64-71 28%    
  Mar 06, 2025 345   @ Cal Poly W 67-62 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 183   UC Riverside L 67-68 50%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 4.3 1.4 0.2 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.2 1.4 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.8 6.9 8.2 10.0 10.6 10.9 10.2 9.1 7.5 5.8 4.3 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 98.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
17-3 82.0% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 56.6% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
15-5 31.8% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 78.3% 78.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 61.8% 60.3% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0%
18-2 0.4% 39.6% 38.3% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2%
17-3 0.9% 31.9% 31.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.0% 29.6% 29.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-5 2.9% 21.4% 21.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
14-6 4.3% 15.3% 15.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.6
13-7 5.8% 9.2% 9.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.3
12-8 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.1
11-9 9.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8
10-10 10.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
9-11 10.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
8-12 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.6
7-13 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-14 8.2% 8.2
5-15 6.9% 6.9
4-16 4.8% 4.8
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.5 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%