Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#288
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#172
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#260
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 4.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 14.7
.500 or above 19.5% 57.5% 19.2%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 61.9% 31.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 4.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 4.9% 15.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round1.4% 3.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 83 - 12
Quad 49 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   @ North Carolina L 63-89 1%    
  Nov 16, 2024 246   @ Gardner-Webb L 70-75 31%    
  Nov 20, 2024 306   @ Northern Illinois L 72-74 44%    
  Nov 22, 2024 66   @ Notre Dame L 58-76 6%    
  Nov 29, 2024 253   Maine L 66-68 43%    
  Nov 30, 2024 258   Navy L 67-69 45%    
  Dec 01, 2024 166   @ Penn L 67-76 20%    
  Dec 07, 2024 153   Wofford L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 18, 2024 170   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-75 22%    
  Dec 21, 2024 188   UNC Greensboro L 68-70 42%    
  Dec 28, 2024 194   Marshall L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 02, 2025 312   @ N.C. A&T L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 322   Hampton W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 247   @ William & Mary L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Campbell W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 187   @ Delaware L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 23, 2025 216   Monmouth L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 117   College of Charleston L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 155   Hofstra L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 220   Northeastern L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 06, 2025 301   @ Campbell L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 117   @ College of Charleston L 70-82 15%    
  Feb 13, 2025 312   N.C. A&T W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 65-75 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 124   Towson L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 247   William & Mary W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 216   @ Monmouth L 69-76 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 260   @ Stony Brook L 69-74 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.3 2.2 0.2 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.5 1.5 0.1 10.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.4 1.9 0.2 10.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 3.2 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.4 13th
14th 0.5 1.8 2.8 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 14th
Total 0.5 1.9 4.0 6.6 9.1 10.8 11.9 11.9 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 87.8% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-3 67.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 30.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 45.5% 45.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 28.8% 28.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 16.1% 16.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 14.9% 14.9% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 2.5% 8.4% 8.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-6 3.9% 7.5% 7.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.6
11-7 5.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6
10-8 7.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5
9-9 9.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.5
8-10 11.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.2
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-13 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-14 9.1% 9.1
3-15 6.6% 6.6
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%