Preseason Rankings
Iowa St.
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#198
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.6% 3.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.8% 14.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 28.9% 28.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 50.9% 50.9% 25.0%
Top 6 Seed 66.5% 66.5% 25.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.0% 85.0% 50.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.0% 83.0% 50.0%
Average Seed 4.3 4.3 7.5
.500 or above 93.3% 93.3% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 82.4% 50.0%
Conference Champion 15.0% 15.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
First Round83.8% 83.8% 50.0%
Second Round68.3% 68.3% 50.0%
Sweet Sixteen43.4% 43.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight24.6% 24.6% 0.0%
Final Four13.3% 13.3% 0.0%
Championship Game7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
National Champion3.6% 3.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 26 - 113 - 9
Quad 33 - 016 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 100.0%   
  Nov 11, 2024 205   UMKC W 78-57 98%    
  Nov 18, 2024 360   IU Indianapolis W 85-50 99.9%   
  Nov 25, 2024 10   Auburn W 72-71 50%    
  Dec 04, 2024 26   Marquette W 74-67 73%    
  Dec 08, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 12, 2024 45   @ Iowa W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 15, 2024 302   Nebraska Omaha W 82-56 99%    
  Dec 22, 2024 320   Morgan St. W 87-59 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 79   @ Colorado W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 9   Baylor W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 07, 2025 77   Utah W 77-65 84%    
  Jan 11, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 15, 2025 2   Kansas W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 65   @ West Virginia W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 71   Central Florida W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 27, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 39   Kansas St. W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 03, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 53   TCU W 77-67 79%    
  Feb 11, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 18, 2025 79   Colorado W 75-63 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 3   @ Houston L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 11   Arizona W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 32   BYU W 76-68 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   @ Kansas St. W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 4.3 3.8 1.9 0.6 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.7 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.9 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 1.0 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.4 6.0 7.5 9.2 10.4 11.4 11.6 10.5 8.5 6.5 4.2 2.0 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 98.4% 1.9    1.9 0.1
18-2 90.0% 3.8    3.0 0.8 0.0
17-3 65.1% 4.3    2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 35.1% 3.0    1.2 1.2 0.5 0.0
15-5 11.4% 1.2    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.5 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.0% 100.0% 47.7% 52.3% 1.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.2% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.5% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.5 3.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.5% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.0 2.9 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.5% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.6 1.9 3.6 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.6% 99.9% 12.6% 87.3% 3.4 0.8 2.3 3.3 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.4% 99.8% 7.6% 92.2% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 10.4% 98.5% 5.0% 93.4% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.4%
11-9 9.2% 94.3% 2.9% 91.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.1%
10-10 7.5% 83.2% 1.5% 81.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 82.9%
9-11 6.0% 55.4% 0.9% 54.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 55.0%
8-12 4.4% 25.7% 0.6% 25.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.2 25.2%
7-13 3.2% 6.7% 0.6% 6.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9 6.1%
6-14 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.9%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 85.0% 12.0% 73.0% 4.3 14.8 14.0 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.2 5.3 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 15.0 83.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.4 12.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 16.1