Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.2#58
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.1% 9.7% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 17.6% 18.6% 5.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.9% 44.7% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.6% 42.3% 19.5%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.2
.500 or above 67.3% 69.6% 38.1%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 59.0% 36.9%
Conference Champion 4.8% 5.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.3% 11.1%
First Four4.9% 5.0% 3.7%
First Round40.3% 42.0% 18.2%
Second Round24.1% 25.2% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen10.2% 10.7% 3.0%
Elite Eight4.3% 4.6% 1.1%
Final Four1.8% 1.9% 0.5%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 48 - 12
Quad 35 - 213 - 13
Quad 44 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Morehead St. W 78-62 93%    
  Nov 09, 2024 14   Tennessee L 74-76 44%    
  Nov 19, 2024 299   Bellarmine W 82-62 96%    
  Nov 22, 2024 189   Winthrop W 82-68 89%    
  Nov 27, 2024 20   Indiana L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 03, 2024 40   Mississippi W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 08, 2024 4   Duke L 71-77 31%    
  Dec 11, 2024 152   UTEP W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 14, 2024 16   @ Kentucky L 79-86 27%    
  Dec 21, 2024 83   @ Florida St. L 78-79 48%    
  Dec 28, 2024 255   Eastern Kentucky W 86-69 93%    
  Jan 01, 2025 7   North Carolina L 77-81 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 57   @ Virginia L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 07, 2025 43   Clemson W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 14, 2025 56   @ Syracuse L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 57   Virginia W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 78   @ SMU L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 41   Wake Forest W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   @ Georgia Tech L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 114   @ Boston College W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 10, 2025 36   Miami (FL) W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 49   @ North Carolina St. L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 16, 2025 66   @ Notre Dame L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 83   Florida St. W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 74   @ Virginia Tech L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 109   California W 80-71 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 93   Stanford W 81-75 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 6.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 6.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.7 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.1 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.0 7.6 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.2 9.6 8.0 6.7 5.3 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.9% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 86.3% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 61.7% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 34.8% 1.3    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 12.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 99.8% 28.6% 71.2% 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.6% 99.8% 16.9% 82.9% 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 5.3% 98.7% 11.7% 87.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
14-6 6.7% 96.1% 8.3% 87.8% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.7%
13-7 8.0% 88.0% 5.1% 82.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.0 87.3%
12-8 9.6% 73.7% 3.2% 70.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.5 72.8%
11-9 10.2% 51.9% 1.6% 50.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.9 51.1%
10-10 10.2% 30.6% 0.9% 29.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.1 29.9%
9-11 9.7% 10.4% 0.4% 10.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 10.0%
8-12 9.0% 2.7% 0.3% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 2.4%
7-13 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.4%
6-14 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 4.4% 4.4
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 42.9% 3.8% 39.1% 7.1 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.1 40.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.6 36.4