Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#247
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 3.9% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 9.2% 9.3% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 22.0% 22.3% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 35.4% 35.8% 10.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.9% 64.5% 32.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.1% 62.7% 31.6%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 7.8
.500 or above 86.1% 86.6% 55.0%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 62.9% 34.2%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 3.0% 10.2%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 5.0%
First Round61.8% 62.3% 29.3%
Second Round42.7% 43.2% 17.0%
Sweet Sixteen21.8% 22.1% 5.5%
Elite Eight10.7% 10.8% 2.3%
Final Four5.1% 5.2% 1.0%
Championship Game2.5% 2.5% 0.6%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 298   Bethune-Cookman W 84-61 98%    
  Nov 08, 2024 333   Northwestern St. W 84-58 99%    
  Nov 13, 2024 177   Wyoming W 79-63 93%    
  Nov 18, 2024 358   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 91-61 99.6%   
  Nov 21, 2024 90   Saint Joseph's W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 29, 2024 226   Northern Colorado W 84-65 95%    
  Dec 04, 2024 122   DePaul W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 70-71 50%    
  Dec 16, 2024 225   Oral Roberts W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 283   Lamar W 83-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 71   Central Florida W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 77   @ Utah W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 32   @ BYU L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 39   @ Kansas St. L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 11   Arizona L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 21, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 26, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 29, 2025 53   TCU W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 3   @ Houston L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 04, 2025 9   Baylor L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 12, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 18, 2025 53   @ TCU W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 65   West Virginia W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 24, 2025 3   Houston L 64-67 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 69-78 23%    
  Mar 05, 2025 79   Colorado W 75-67 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.6 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.4 2.1 2.7 0.8 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.4 6.7 8.3 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.3 7.5 5.9 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 90.9% 1.1    0.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 68.7% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 37.0% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.0% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.3 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.9% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 3.2 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.5% 99.8% 10.1% 89.7% 4.3 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 9.3% 99.3% 6.3% 93.0% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 10.3% 96.5% 3.9% 92.6% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.4 96.3%
11-9 10.7% 88.9% 1.8% 87.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.2 88.7%
10-10 10.6% 73.7% 1.3% 72.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 73.3%
9-11 9.8% 42.3% 0.6% 41.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.6 42.0%
8-12 8.3% 18.3% 0.3% 18.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 6.8 18.0%
7-13 6.7% 3.7% 0.3% 3.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5 3.4%
6-14 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.2%
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 63.9% 4.8% 59.1% 6.1 3.8 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.7 4.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 36.1 62.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 65.2 34.8