Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#167
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#192
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 14.8% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 74.0% 83.3% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 78.9% 63.9%
Conference Champion 13.8% 17.3% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.5% 3.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round11.9% 14.7% 8.0%
Second Round1.7% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 58.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 271   @ Portland W 75-73 59%    
  Nov 13, 2024 250   Fresno St. W 72-65 75%    
  Nov 17, 2024 160   @ San Jose St. L 69-72 39%    
  Nov 20, 2024 152   UTEP W 73-71 59%    
  Nov 26, 2024 262   Eastern Washington W 81-73 76%    
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-55 98%    
  Dec 05, 2024 162   UC San Diego W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 191   @ UC Davis L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 14, 2024 310   Green Bay W 73-62 82%    
  Dec 18, 2024 141   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 22, 2024 207   @ Missouri St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 03, 2025 192   @ Hawaii L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 345   @ Cal Poly W 73-64 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 183   UC Riverside W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 191   UC Davis W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 23, 2025 162   @ UC San Diego L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 239   Cal St. Northridge W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 245   Long Beach St. W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 192   Hawaii W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 103   @ UC Irvine L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 183   @ UC Riverside L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 244   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 245   @ Long Beach St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 345   Cal Poly W 76-61 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 103   UC Irvine L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.4 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.3 13.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.4 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.0 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.1 6.4 7.9 9.5 10.4 10.9 10.4 9.4 8.0 6.1 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 95.4% 2.3    2.0 0.3
17-3 81.1% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 55.6% 3.4    2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 29.1% 2.3    1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.8% 13.8 9.2 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 76.9% 67.9% 9.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 28.0%
19-1 1.0% 56.9% 54.7% 2.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 4.7%
18-2 2.4% 47.6% 47.2% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.8%
17-3 4.2% 41.1% 41.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5
16-4 6.1% 33.8% 33.8% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.1
15-5 8.0% 26.9% 26.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 5.9
14-6 9.4% 18.2% 18.2% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 7.7
13-7 10.4% 10.9% 10.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.3
12-8 10.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.3
11-9 10.4% 3.7% 3.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.1
10-10 9.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4
9-11 7.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
8-12 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.3
7-13 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-14 3.5% 3.5
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 3.3 3.4 2.1 0.6 88.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.8 9.1 21.8 8.2 25.5 17.3 9.1 9.1