Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#247
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#278
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#259
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 34.1% 48.1% 23.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.1% 56.7% 39.9%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.7% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 4.8% 10.4%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round3.2% 4.8% 2.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 269   @ Radford L 65-67 43%    
  Nov 14, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 70-67 62%    
  Nov 15, 2024 189   @ Winthrop L 67-73 29%    
  Nov 16, 2024 256   NC Central W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 17, 2024 209   Georgia Southern L 71-73 44%    
  Nov 22, 2024 49   @ North Carolina St. L 62-79 7%    
  Nov 24, 2024 139   @ Appalachian St. L 64-72 23%    
  Dec 02, 2024 227   @ Old Dominion L 70-74 36%    
  Dec 18, 2024 133   Richmond L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 22, 2024 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-74 12%    
  Dec 29, 2024 258   Navy W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 02, 2025 155   @ Hofstra L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 260   @ Stony Brook L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 288   Elon W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 312   N.C. A&T W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 322   @ Hampton W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 23, 2025 322   Hampton W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 216   Monmouth W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 301   @ Campbell W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 117   College of Charleston L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 06, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 187   @ Delaware L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 13, 2025 155   Hofstra L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 154   Drexel L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 20, 2025 157   UNC Wilmington L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 288   @ Elon L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 124   @ Towson L 59-68 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 220   Northeastern W 69-67 56%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.8 1.1 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.6 0.2 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.8 0.9 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.3 1.4 0.1 7.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.6 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.9 7.9 9.7 11.1 11.7 11.3 10.0 8.7 6.6 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 66.1% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.3% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 39.8% 35.3% 4.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0%
17-1 0.2% 41.1% 41.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 28.8% 28.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-3 1.7% 23.8% 23.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.0% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-5 4.8% 11.7% 11.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.2
12-6 6.6% 7.6% 7.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.1
11-7 8.7% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.2
10-8 10.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-9 11.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
8-10 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.1
6-12 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%