Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Gonzaga 79.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 16 - 2 +16.6      +10.6 12 +6.0 40 74.3 45 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 St. Mary's 34.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 13 - 5 +11.1      +3.5 80 +7.5 17 57.7 360 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 San Francisco 14.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +7.3      +3.5 82 +3.8 75 69.2 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
105 Santa Clara 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +4.5      +3.1 92 +1.4 123 71.4 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 Oregon St. 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +3.5      +3.0 95 +0.5 145 61.4 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
121 Seattle 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.3      -1.0 202 +3.3 81 65.5 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
124 Washington St. 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 +2.2      +1.8 115 +0.4 148 75.4 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Loyola Marymount 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.7      +0.3 153 +1.4 124 67.7 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 San Diego 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.6      +0.8 141 -2.4 251 75.8 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Pacific 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 6 - 12 -3.4      -1.0 197 -2.5 260 66.4 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Pepperdine 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4.4      -2.0 228 -2.4 254 71.8 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Portland 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5.3      -0.8 190 -4.5 313 69.9 125 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.5 68.9 18.5 7.3 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.8 24.9 31.5 17.9 10.5 6.4 3.7 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
San Francisco 4.3 9.2 17.3 18.1 15.5 12.3 9.0 6.9 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.4
Santa Clara 5.5 3.8 9.7 12.7 13.6 12.9 12.0 10.9 8.7 6.8 4.7 3.1 1.2
Oregon St. 5.5 3.8 9.9 14.1 13.6 12.3 11.4 10.0 8.4 6.6 5.0 3.4 1.5
Seattle 6.4 2.1 6.0 9.2 11.5 12.4 12.1 11.5 10.6 9.1 7.1 5.3 3.0
Washington St. 6.4 2.0 5.4 8.9 11.5 12.1 12.1 12.2 11.0 9.1 7.5 5.2 2.9
Loyola Marymount 6.4 1.9 6.1 9.6 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.5 10.7 9.2 8.0 5.9 3.0
San Diego 7.8 0.5 2.3 4.8 6.5 8.7 10.2 11.2 12.0 12.4 11.9 11.0 8.4
Pacific 8.6 0.2 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.6 11.0 13.2 14.0 15.2 14.3
Pepperdine 9.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.0 8.0 10.2 13.0 15.9 18.4 19.8
Portland 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.7 9.2 11.6 15.7 20.9 25.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.9 11.1 16.2 20.7 22.0 14.6
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.0 9.0 12.2 14.5 15.4 14.5 11.0 6.3 2.3
San Francisco 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.1 7.4 9.6 11.7 13.0 13.1 11.6 9.7 6.6 3.6 1.5 0.3
Santa Clara 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.7 9.3 11.1 12.3 12.3 11.6 10.0 7.4 5.0 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Oregon St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.6 9.1 10.5 11.6 11.7 11.4 9.8 8.0 5.5 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2
Seattle 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 4.6 6.8 9.0 11.0 12.1 12.4 11.7 9.7 7.4 5.2 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.2 9.3 11.6 12.6 12.1 11.5 9.5 7.6 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.0 7.2 9.3 11.1 11.8 11.6 11.0 9.4 7.3 5.3 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
San Diego 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.2 9.1 11.1 12.2 12.5 11.8 9.9 7.9 5.7 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 6 - 12 1.1 3.6 6.2 9.6 11.5 12.9 12.9 11.3 9.8 7.5 5.4 3.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 5 - 13 1.9 5.2 9.1 12.1 13.7 13.8 12.8 10.6 7.9 5.5 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 2.5 7.3 11.1 13.5 15.1 13.5 12.1 9.2 6.4 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 68.9% 56.3 11.1 1.4 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 24.9% 15.9 7.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 9.2% 5.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 3.8% 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
Oregon St. 3.8% 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seattle 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
Washington St. 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 1.9% 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.5% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 79.3% 55.2% 24.1% 11   4.1 5.9 6.9 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.5 8.0 10.3 6.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 53.7%
St. Mary's 34.1% 21.4% 12.7% 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.4 3.8 7.7 9.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 65.9 16.2%
San Francisco 14.4% 8.8% 5.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.7 3.6 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.6 6.2%
Santa Clara 7.0% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.0 2.8%
Oregon St. 4.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.4 1.2%
Seattle 2.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.2 0.7%
Washington St. 2.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3 0.7%
Loyola Marymount 2.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.4%
San Diego 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.1%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 79.3% 3.8% 77.5% 56.1% 28.4% 13.7% 6.4% 3.0% 1.5%
St. Mary's 34.1% 5.1% 31.9% 17.0% 6.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
San Francisco 14.4% 2.5% 13.2% 5.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 7.0% 1.4% 6.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 4.6% 0.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 2.8% 0.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 2.7% 0.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.1% 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 56.4 39.3 4.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 61.7 35.5 2.8 0.1
2nd Round 71.4% 0.8 28.6 58.8 12.1 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 35.5% 0.4 64.5 33.8 1.7 0.0
Elite Eight 16.5% 0.2 83.5 16.3 0.3
Final Four 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.4 0.0
Final Game 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Champion 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6