Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #201
Pace 72.0 #93
Improvement +1.4 #113

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #238 C C+ F D+ C+
Defense #191 C+ C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.26 #83 +4.1 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.70 #257 -0.6 #206
Three Pointers 38% #254 0.91 #312 -3.8 #306
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #182 -0.3 #181
Freethrows 16.2 #264 72% #207 11.7 #255
Second Chance 30.6% #181 1.13 #73 0.35 #116
Turnovers 19.3% #333
Total Offense -2.5 #238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #254 1.18 #209 +1.1 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #250 0.57 #5 +2.6 #19
Three Pointers 46% #52 0.98 #132 -1.7 #257
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #121 +2.0 #120
Freethrows 18.0 #206 73% #239 13.2 #215
Second Chance 31.1% #206 1.09 #243 0.34 #235
Turnovers 16.7% #173
Total Defense -0.7 #191

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #152 0.3% #186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #199 -4.2% #99
Possession Length 16.9 #132 17.2 #163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #228 0.19 #243
Improvement +2.0 #76 -0.6 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 n/a 14.7
.500 or above 1.0% 4.7% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 13.3% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 3.8% 14.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 61 - 10
Quad 34 - 55 - 16
Quad 47 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 84% +14  1 - 0 -5 -9 D- F F +3 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 181 UC Davis W 67 - 63 55% -0  2 - 0 -0 -8 F D+ F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 108 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 17% -16  2 - 1 -30 -15 F F D+ -15 C F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 64% +13  3 - 1 +11 +17 A+ A+ B+ -8 F A B-
 Sat, Nov 22 185 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 56% -2  3 - 2 -11 -7 F A+ F -3 B+ D F
 Sun, Nov 23 131 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 43% -5  3 - 3 -11 -9 C A- F -2 A F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 250 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 68% +11  4 - 3 +12 +14 A+ C F -3 B+ C- B
 Mon, Dec 1 77 @Stanford L 72 - 94 10% -14  4 - 4 -11 +5 A+ B F -17 D F F
 Sun, Dec 14 148 Kent St. W 88 - 78 46% +0  5 - 4 +8 -1 B D- F +8 A+ C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 68 @Oregon L 69 - 94 10% -11  5 - 5 -14 -7 D C+ F -5 F A- B
 Mon, Dec 22 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 25% -11  5 - 6 -14 -7 F A+ F -8 F D+ B+
 Sun, Dec 28 141 Washington St. L 62 - 67 45% -3  5 - 7 0 - 1 -7 -12 F A+ A+ +5 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 54 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 16% -1  5 - 8 0 - 2 +0 +13 A+ A C -13 F A A
 Fri, Jan 2 42 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 5% -14  5 - 9 0 - 3 -6 -3 F C C+ -5 D- A- C
 Sun, Jan 4 101 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 16% +4  5 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +1 A- F F +1 A+ D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 132 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 43% +4  6 - 10 1 - 4 -0 +12 A A+ F -12 B- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 195 Oregon St. W 82 - 76 58% -2  7 - 10 2 - 4 +1 +11 D+ A A+ -10 D+ B F
 Wed, Jan 14 279 @Pepperdine L 63 - 67 52% -0  7 - 11 2 - 5 -8 -6 F F D+ -1 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 155 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 58 27% +11  8 - 11 3 - 5 +16 +3 B D D+ +13 A+ C A-
 Sat, Jan 24 42 St. Mary's L 66 - 78 13%
 Wed, Jan 28 132 @Pacific L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @Washington St. L 73 - 80 25%
 Wed, Feb 4 6 Gonzaga L 68 - 89 2%
 Sat, Feb 7 121 Seattle L 69 - 72 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 209 @San Diego L 77 - 80 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 279 Pepperdine W 74 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 121 @Seattle L 66 - 75 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 6 @Gonzaga L 65 - 92 1%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 San Diego W 80 - 77 61%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 12 -3 -2 C C+ F -1 C+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 4.7 0.5 7.4 6th
7th 0.5 7.7 2.3 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 5.9 7.8 0.3 14.0 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 13.3 2.3 0.0 18.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 12.4 7.4 0.1 21.5 10th
11th 0.8 7.5 8.6 0.6 17.4 11th
12th 1.7 2.5 0.4 4.6 12th
Total 2.5 11.7 24.5 27.7 20.2 9.7 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 3.1% 3.1
8-10 9.7% 9.7
7-11 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 20.2
6-12 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.7
5-13 24.5% 24.5
4-14 11.7% 11.7
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.5%