Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#303
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#288
Pace84.9#4
Improvement+0.2#171

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#270
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#338
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#213
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement+1.4#75

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#316
First Shot-5.1#334
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#119
Layups/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#287
Freethrows-4.4#352
Improvement-1.2#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 1.1% 3.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 19.4% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.7% 18.5% 38.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 15
Quad 46 - 78 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 106 @Wyoming L 82-92 9%     0 - 1 -2.7 +0.1 -1.2
  Mon, Nov 10 69 @California L 65-93 5%     0 - 2 -17.0 -9.4 -4.9
  Sat, Nov 15 139 Pacific L 73-85 27%     0 - 3 -13.5 -8.0 -4.2
  Fri, Nov 21 270 @Portland L 85-103 32%     0 - 4 -21.1 +1.5 -20.7
  Sat, Nov 22 166 St. Thomas W 88-80 25%     1 - 4 +7.2 +7.0 -0.5
  Sun, Nov 23 151 Northern Colorado L 93-97 22%     1 - 5 -3.7 +7.9 -11.2
  Sat, Nov 29 298 Pepperdine W 83-69 61%     2 - 5 +3.3 +5.6 -2.3
  Thu, Dec 4 243 Cal Poly L 91-94 49%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -10.6 -1.6 -8.4
  Sun, Dec 7 108 @Hawaii L 74-89 8%    
  Sat, Dec 13 291 @Denver L 83-87 36%    
  Sun, Dec 21 47 @Oklahoma St. L 80-102 2%    
  Sun, Dec 28 40 @SMU L 74-97 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 148 UC Santa Barbara L 79-84 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 125 UC Irvine L 72-80 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 102 @UC San Diego L 74-90 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 253 Cal St. Northridge W 88-87 51%    
  Thu, Jan 15 168 @UC Davis L 73-83 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 271 @UC Riverside L 78-83 34%    
  Thu, Jan 22 286 Long Beach St. W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 243 @Cal Poly L 88-94 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-87 16%    
  Thu, Feb 5 271 UC Riverside W 81-80 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-80 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 286 @Long Beach St. L 77-81 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 125 @UC Irvine L 69-83 11%    
  Thu, Feb 19 168 UC Davis L 76-80 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 108 Hawaii L 77-86 22%    
  Thu, Mar 5 102 UC San Diego L 77-87 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 84-90 31%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.4 3.1 0.5 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.3 7.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 16.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.6 7.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 21.0 10th
11th 0.7 2.7 5.7 7.7 6.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 25.7 11th
Total 0.7 2.7 6.0 10.1 14.0 14.7 15.2 12.3 9.4 6.5 4.4 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 46.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 17.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.2
13-7 0.5% 7.6% 7.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
10-10 4.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.4
9-11 6.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.5
8-12 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-13 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-14 15.2% 15.2
5-15 14.7% 14.7
4-16 14.0% 14.0
3-17 10.1% 10.1
2-18 6.0% 6.0
1-19 2.7% 2.7
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%