Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.6 207
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 189
Pace 80.5 6
Improvement +2.8 79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 236 C D B- C+ C
Defense C 175 D+ C B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 C 58% 178 +0.2 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 191 D+ 34% 301 -1.0 234
Three Pointers 41% 180 C+ 35% 137 +0.7 158
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 177 C -0.3 179
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 180
Second Chance D 25.7% 311 D+ 0.95 290 D 0.24 321
Turnovers B- 15.7% 106
Freethrows B- 0.33 104 C- 71% 223 C+ 0.24 126
Total Offense C- -2.4 236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 276 D 63% 306 +0.0 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 329 C- 40% 250 +1.7 61
Three Pointers 49% 13 C 34% 203 -4.5 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.1 177 D+ -0.3 179
1st FG Attempt 1.08 275 D+ -2.9 275
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 136 C 1.04 201 C 0.31 163
Turnovers B 19.0% 67
Freethrows C 0.31 201 C+ 72% 144 C 0.22 196
Total Defense C -0.2 175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.9 14 17.0 143
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 19 0.19 237
Improvement -0.9 #248 +3.7 #25

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 18% 38% 12%
.500 or above in Conference 81% 97% 77%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 48 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 106 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 17% -3  14% 0 - 1 C- -3 D -4 D D F+ B- +3 C B D-
 Mon, Nov 10 73 @California L 65 - 93 11% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F -11 D+ F+ D+ C- -3 B C- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 115 Pacific L 73 - 85 39% -14  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F+ -9 F D- A+ C -1 F A A-
 Fri, Nov 21 209 @Portland L 85 - 103 39% -13  2% 0 - 4 F -18 C+ +2 A F C+ F -18 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 126 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 32% -1  39% 1 - 4 B +10 B- +4 C+ D- A B +5 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 171 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 42% -4  13% 1 - 5 C- -5 B- +4 C D- A+ D- -8 C+ D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 294 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 78% +5  72% 2 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 C+ B A- C -0 B B- C
 Thu, Dec 4 259 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 71% -5  6% 2 - 6 0 - 1 D- -11 D -6 C C- F+ D+ -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 102 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 16% -9  1% 2 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 F -11 F+ F A- A- +10 B B B-
 Sat, Dec 13 247 @Denver W 105 - 86 46% +19  96% 3 - 7 A- +17 A +14 A+ B- D+ C+ +2 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 59 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 9% -10  0% 3 - 8 B- +7 B+ +8 A+ A- C+ C -0 F B A+
 Sun, Dec 28 37 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  0% 3 - 9 F -30 F -12 F C- F F -14 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 135 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 45% +13  97% 4 - 9 1 - 2 B +10 B+ +8 B C+ A C+ +1 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 123 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 42% -9  16% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -23 D- -6 D- C- A- F -17 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 140 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 24% +4  52% 5 - 10 2 - 3 A +22 A+ +18 A+ C A+ B- +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 185 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 58% -1  32% 6 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +2 C- -1 B D B- B- +2 C B C
 Thu, Jan 15 187 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 35% -9  0% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F C- C- B +6 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 296 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 58% -9  0% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D- -14 F -12 F D- D- C -1 F A- B
 Thu, Jan 22 255 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 70% +11  98% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C+ +2 D- -7 B+ F D A- +9 B- A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 259 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 49% +8  89% 8 - 12 5 - 5 B+ +13 A- +11 A F+ B- C+ +1 D+ F+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 135 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 83 24% -13  0% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -9 F -10 D- D+ D- C+ +2 D+ B+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 296 UC Riverside W 78 - 72 78% -1  43% 9 - 13 6 - 6 C- -5 D- -8 F+ F B B- +2 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 325 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 66 84% +16  97% 10 - 13 7 - 6 C+ +3 D -4 B- F B+ B +6 B B- B
 Thu, Feb 12 255 @Long Beach St. W 86 - 82 48% -4  20% 11 - 13 8 - 6 C+ +2 B- +4 C- A- A- C- -3 F A B+
 Sat, Feb 14 123 @UC Irvine L 71 - 79 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 187 UC Davis W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 325 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 78 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 102 Hawaii L 75 - 80 34%
 Thu, Mar 5 140 UC San Diego L 76 - 77 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 185 @Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 88 35%
Totals 14 - 16 11 - 9 -3 F -2 B C C D+ +0 C+ C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ C+ C 39% 20% 41% C C D D+ D B- B- C- C+ C D C- C D+ 35% 15% 49% D+ D+ C+ C C B C C+ C
1.05 58% 34% 35% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.0 .24 16% .33 71% .24 1.09 63% 40% 34% +2 0 1.08 29% 1.0 .31 19% .31 72% .24
Nov
8		 Wyoming D B+ D F D+ 45% 24% 31% D+ D F+ C- D F+ A+ B- A+ B- A- F+ D- C+ 44% 11% 46% D+ C A+ F B D- F A+ D-
0.98 65% 33% 19% -5 0 0.92 18% 0.9 .16 20% .64 72% .46 1.10 48% 50% 38% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.2 .30 13% .51 59% .30
Nov
10		 California F B C- F C- 38% 23% 39% D+ D+ C- F F+ D+ F F F C- B+ A+ D+ A- 36% 15% 49% D- B C- C C- F+ F F F
0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08 1.20 52% 22% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38
Nov
15		 Pacific F+ F F F F 47% 21% 32% A- F C- F D- A+ D+ A- C C D- F F F 46% 26% 28% C F A+ B+ A A- C- F+ D+
0.93 42% 29% 24% -14 +1 0.74 23% 0.8 .17 9% .31 77% .24 1.09 65% 54% 50% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.9 .21 24% .29 82% .24
Nov
21		 Portland C+ B B- A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% B- A D F F C+ D+ F F F F+ F F F 46% 18% 36% D+ F A- F F D- B- B- B
1.09 64% 38% 43% +9 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14 1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18
Nov
22		 St. Thomas B- B F C- C 39% 9% 52% B- C+ F A- D- A A A+ A+ B C D+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% C+ A+ D+ F+ D- D- B F D+
1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +1 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35 1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24
Nov
23		 Northern Colorado B- C F C- C 55% 16% 30% B+ C D D- D- A+ A F+ B+ D- D- C B- C+ 35% 15% 51% C- C+ B F D- F F F F
1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30 1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 0 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47
Nov
29		 Pepperdine B- A- C+ D- C+ 37% 17% 46% D+ C+ C+ B+ B A- F F+ F C D- A- A+ B+ 36% 15% 49% D- B A+ F B- C F F F
1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10 0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40
Dec
4		 Cal Poly D F+ A- A C 41% 22% 37% D+ C D+ C+ C- F+ A+ D- A+ D+ C F F F 27% 4% 69% C+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F B F
1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29 1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35
Dec
6		 Hawaii F F+ C- F F 54% 14% 32% A- F+ F F F A- C- C- C- A- D+ A+ B B+ 30% 8% 62% C B C- A B B- B+ A A
0.81 45% 38% 17% -15 +2 0.75 18% 0.5 .09 12% .28 67% .19 0.95 63% 0% 30% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .28 21% .29 65% .19
Dec
13		 Denver A B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C+ A+ D+ A+ B- D+ B B B+ C+ C- A+ A A 42% 16% 42% F B+ D+ F F C+ D A+ C+
1.37 64% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 31% 1.4 .44 14% .35 74% .26 1.12 58% 22% 29% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.6 .51 16% .34 64% .22
Dec
21		 Oklahoma St. B+ C+ D A+ A+ 42% 11% 47% B A+ B- A A- C+ A+ F A C C+ F+ F F 40% 12% 47% B- F C A B A+ C+ A B
1.12 59% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.3 .40 18% .52 50% .26 1.18 57% 43% 48% +10 +1 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 21% .34 67% .22
Dec
28		 SMU F F A+ F F 25% 27% 47% D F B+ F C- F A+ C- A F F A F F 31% 26% 43% B- F F A D+ C- C B- C+
0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26 1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21
Jan
1		 UC Santa Barbara B+ A+ A+ F B 43% 25% 31% C- B F A+ C+ A A+ A A+ C+ F D F F 27% 14% 59% C+ F D- A B- A+ A+ F B+
1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45 1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19
Jan
3		 UC Irvine D- F F A D 28% 31% 41% F+ D- D+ B- C- A- D- B D F F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% F F F F F A- D A+ C+
0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15 1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20
Jan
8		 UC San Diego A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% D+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ F+ A- B- D+ B- A A 27% 6% 67% C+ A- F F F A+ F F F
1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24 1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34
Jan
10		 Cal St. Northridge C- C F A+ B 41% 15% 44% B B D D+ D B- A+ F A- B- D+ A+ C C 47% 15% 38% C- C A- C- B C B+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28 1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09
Jan
15		 UC Davis F+ F+ F B- F 40% 17% 42% C- F D+ C C- C- A+ F A B C- D+ A+ B+ 47% 11% 42% F B- F C F A+ F A F
0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32 0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39
Jan
17		 UC Riverside F B- F+ F F 39% 21% 39% D+ F F+ D+ D- D- A+ B- A+ C F F C- F 34% 26% 40% B+ F A- A A- B F+ F F
0.93 64% 33% 14% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .49 71% .35 1.04 71% 54% 35% +9 -1 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 22% .36 82% .30
Jan
22		 Long Beach St. D- A A+ F A 34% 27% 39% D- B+ F F F D C- B C A- D B B+ B 27% 20% 53% D B- C A+ A A+ D- D+ D-
1.04 73% 75% 24% +9 -1 1.18 19% 0.8 .15 19% .35 79% .27 0.90 67% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.6 .14 25% .33 76% .25
Jan
24		 Cal Poly A- B A+ A A 38% 10% 52% B- A C+ F F+ B- A+ A A+ C+ B- F C D 28% 6% 67% B- D+ F C+ F+ A B B B
1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33 1.06 53% 100% 33% +2 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Santa Barbara F B+ F B- D 31% 25% 43% D- D- F A+ D+ D- D F+ D- C+ F F B D+ 38% 9% 53% D- D+ C- A+ B+ B+ C+ D- C-
0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21 1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24
Feb
5		 UC Riverside D- F+ F C- F 62% 10% 29% A+ F+ F C F B A+ A+ A+ B- B- C C+ B- 34% 21% 45% B- B- A+ A A+ F B+ A+ A
1.03 50% 20% 33% -7 +3 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 13% .49 84% .41 0.95 52% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 14% 0.7 .09 12% .24 56% .14
Feb
7		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F A+ A+ B 35% 15% 50% C B- D- F F B+ C C+ C B C B- A+ A- 42% 17% 40% F B C B+ B- B F+ A+ B
1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27 0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22
Feb
12		 Long Beach St. B- C F B+ C- 45% 18% 38% B- C- B- A A- A- C- A- C+ C- F F C F 33% 24% 43% D+ F A+ F A B+ F C F
1.16 60% 20% 38% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.5 .46 13% .34 82% .28 1.11 81% 58% 33% +12 -1 1.24 12% 1.3 .15 20% .39 74% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.8 3.1 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.4 7.7 10.7 1.2 20.1 4th
5th 0.1 4.4 14.5 2.4 0.0 21.3 5th
6th 1.8 12.8 6.4 0.0 21.1 6th
7th 2.0 12.1 10.4 0.7 25.2 7th
8th 1.3 1.3 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.4 15.2 28.2 29.7 17.1 5.7 0.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 21.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.8% 11.7% 11.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 5.7% 8.0% 8.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.2
12-8 17.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 16.3
11-9 29.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 29.0
10-10 28.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.1 0.2 27.9
9-11 15.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.1
8-12 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.7 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 2.5%