Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#242
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#250
Pace83.4#4
Improvement+3.7#21

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#229
First Shot-0.9#195
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#265
Layup/Dunks+0.4#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement+2.3#41

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#252
First Shot-2.4#252
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#195
Layups/Dunks+2.5#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#331
Freethrows-1.9#305
Improvement+1.4#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.1 15.1
.500 or above 5.2% 18.0% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.7% 33.9% 20.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 17.7% 9.2% 18.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 47 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 103 @Wyoming L 82-92 13%     0 - 1 -2.3 -1.1 +0.5
  Mon, Nov 10 65 @California L 65-93 8%     0 - 2 -16.7 -8.3 -5.8
  Sat, Nov 15 138 Pacific L 73-85 37%     0 - 3 -13.3 -8.3 -3.8
  Fri, Nov 21 256 @Portland L 85-103 41%     0 - 4 -20.3 +2.9 -21.3
  Sat, Nov 22 135 St. Thomas W 88-80 27%     1 - 4 +9.7 +8.0 +1.1
  Sun, Nov 23 171 Northern Colorado L 93-97 35%     1 - 5 -4.7 +6.4 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 29 262 Pepperdine W 83-69 65%     2 - 5 +5.4 +7.6 -2.3
  Thu, Dec 4 257 Cal Poly L 91-94 64%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -11.4 -2.8 -8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 109 @Hawaii L 59-69 14%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -3.2 -8.1 +5.3
  Sat, Dec 13 290 @Denver W 105-86 46%     3 - 7 +15.3 +15.8 -2.2
  Sun, Dec 21 55 @Oklahoma St. L 89-94 7%     3 - 8 +7.2 +9.8 -2.0
  Sun, Dec 28 42 @SMU L 75-95 3%    
  Thu, Jan 1 150 UC Santa Barbara L 79-81 41%    
  Sat, Jan 3 131 UC Irvine L 76-79 38%    
  Thu, Jan 8 83 @UC San Diego L 75-90 9%    
  Sat, Jan 10 212 Cal St. Northridge W 89-87 57%    
  Thu, Jan 15 176 @UC Davis L 78-85 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 272 @UC Riverside L 80-82 44%    
  Thu, Jan 22 275 Long Beach St. W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 257 @Cal Poly L 90-92 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-84 22%    
  Thu, Feb 5 272 UC Riverside W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Feb 7 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-78 72%    
  Thu, Feb 12 275 @Long Beach St. L 80-82 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 131 @UC Irvine L 73-82 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 176 UC Davis L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 109 Hawaii L 75-80 31%    
  Thu, Mar 5 83 UC San Diego L 78-87 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 86-90 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 15.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.0 7.3 10.9 14.0 14.9 14.1 11.8 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 76.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 29.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.7% 10.0% 10.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.7% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-8 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
11-9 5.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7
10-10 8.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.7
9-11 11.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.7
8-12 14.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.1
7-13 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
6-14 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 10.9% 10.9
4-16 7.3% 7.3
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%