SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#42
Expected Predictive Rating+15.9#28
Pace72.3#104
Improvement-1.6#284

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#32
First Shot+5.7#44
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#45
Layup/Dunks+4.8#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#291
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement+0.6#127

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#70
First Shot+4.1#56
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks+3.5#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
Freethrows+1.9#64
Improvement-2.2#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 14.7% 14.9% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.7% 70.3% 52.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.8% 69.3% 52.2%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.9
.500 or above 98.3% 98.5% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.9% 71.3% 58.5%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Four8.8% 8.7% 10.6%
First Round65.2% 65.8% 47.5%
Second Round33.9% 34.3% 21.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.9% 9.0% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.7% 2.7% 1.5%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 45 - 8
Quad 27 - 211 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 180 Tarleton St. W 96-76 93%     1 - 0 +15.5 +18.6 -3.9
  Thu, Nov 6 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 95%     2 - 0 +4.4 -2.9 +7.5
  Tue, Nov 11 100 Murray St. W 102-91 82%     3 - 0 +13.3 +13.2 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 50 Butler W 87-85 68%     4 - 0 +9.3 +11.9 -2.7
  Tue, Nov 18 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     5 - 0 +30.2 +12.9 +11.4
  Fri, Nov 21 136 Arkansas St. W 100-69 89%     6 - 0 +29.7 +12.6 +13.2
  Mon, Nov 24 261 Radford W 89-72 96%     7 - 0 +8.5 +1.2 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 28 80 @Mississippi St. W 87-81 OT 58%     8 - 0 +15.9 +8.3 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 3 9 @Vanderbilt L 69-88 15%     8 - 1 +4.1 +8.5 -5.0
  Sun, Dec 7 43 Texas A&M W 93-80 OT 51%     9 - 1 +24.8 +8.8 +13.8
  Sat, Dec 13 39 LSU L 77-89 49%     9 - 2 +0.4 +15.4 -16.1
  Sun, Dec 21 282 Central Arkansas W 99-82 97%     10 - 2 +7.5 +22.6 -15.2
  Sun, Dec 28 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 95-75 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 21 North Carolina L 77-78 47%    
  Wed, Jan 7 40 @Clemson L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 4 @Duke L 71-84 12%    
  Wed, Jan 14 74 Virginia Tech W 82-75 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 Virginia W 78-77 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 61 @Wake Forest W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 113 Florida St. W 90-78 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 13 @Louisville L 78-87 21%    
  Tue, Feb 3 28 North Carolina St. W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 84 @Pittsburgh W 76-73 59%    
  Tue, Feb 10 64 Notre Dame W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 75 @Syracuse W 79-77 55%    
  Tue, Feb 17 13 Louisville L 81-84 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 156 Boston College W 80-65 91%    
  Wed, Feb 25 65 @California W 77-76 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 81 @Stanford W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Mar 4 35 Miami (FL) W 80-78 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 113 @Florida St. W 87-81 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.4 1.9 0.2 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.4 0.4 9.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 5.1 1.1 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.7 2.6 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 0.4 4.4 4.0 0.5 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 5.3 1.3 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.4 0.2 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.3 0.0 5.1 12th
13th 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.2 3.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 8.1 11.9 14.6 15.4 14.2 11.5 7.6 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 95.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 85.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 51.8% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 16.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 99.5% 17.1% 82.4% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.7% 99.9% 12.1% 87.8% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 7.6% 99.6% 7.4% 92.2% 6.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 11.5% 97.8% 5.0% 92.8% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.6%
11-7 14.2% 94.3% 2.9% 91.4% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.8 94.1%
10-8 15.4% 85.2% 1.5% 83.7% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 4.4 3.9 1.2 0.0 2.3 84.9%
9-9 14.6% 69.1% 0.9% 68.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.0 2.4 0.0 4.5 68.8%
8-10 11.9% 43.6% 0.5% 43.1% 10.4 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.8 0.1 6.7 43.4%
7-11 8.1% 16.4% 0.5% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.7 16.0%
6-12 4.9% 3.3% 0.1% 3.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7 3.3%
5-13 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.4%
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 69.7% 3.0% 66.7% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.5 6.9 9.5 12.4 13.2 12.1 7.7 0.2 0.0 30.3 68.8%