Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
1 Duke 100.0%   1   28 - 2 16 - 1 +27.2      +13.3 4 +13.9 1 65.2 268 +29.2 2 +27.6 1
13 Louisville 99.5%   6   21 - 9 10 - 7 +18.6      +10.7 16 +7.9 23 74.4 38 +15.8 28 +13.9 7
21 Virginia 100.0%   4   26 - 4 14 - 3 +17.4      +8.4 37 +9.1 17 64.8 277 +20.9 10 +21.3 2
27 North Carolina 99.8%   6   24 - 6 12 - 5 +15.4      +9.1 26 +6.3 38 69.7 141 +18.7 18 +16.9 3
34 Miami (FL) 97.3%   7   24 - 6 13 - 4 +14.5      +7.6 43 +6.8 32 69.9 135 +16.4 25 +16.8 4
36 North Carolina St. 89.1%   9   19 - 11 10 - 7 +14.1      +9.5 23 +4.6 58 71.7 97 +12.9 43 +14.0 5
40 Clemson 91.4%   8   21 - 9 11 - 6 +13.5      +4.4 80 +9.2 16 62.3 336 +14.3 38 +14.0 6
41 SMU 58.3%   11   19 - 11 8 - 9 +13.1      +10.3 19 +2.8 95 71.7 95 +11.9 47 +10.8 10
56 Virginia Tech 19.0%   19 - 11 8 - 9 +10.0      +5.5 64 +4.5 59 67.9 195 +11.4 52 +10.4 11
60 Stanford 13.3%   19 - 11 8 - 9 +9.3      +5.4 65 +3.9 72 67.8 198 +10.3 58 +9.8 12
69 Wake Forest 0.2%   15 - 15 6 - 11 +8.7      +5.9 58 +2.7 97 70.1 131 +8.2 73 +7.5 13
73 California 16.5%   20 - 9 9 - 8 +8.3      +3.1 95 +5.2 48 69.3 156 +11.7 48 +11.0 9
75 Florida St. 1.3%   16 - 14 9 - 8 +7.7      +4.9 70 +2.8 93 75.3 28 +9.0 66 +12.0 8
77 Syracuse 0.0%   15 - 15 6 - 11 +7.7      +4.9 72 +2.8 94 69.1 161 +7.5 82 +7.1 14
89 Notre Dame 0.0%   13 - 17 4 - 13 +6.4      +4.9 71 +1.5 132 64.8 276 +5.7 93 +3.3 16
95 Pittsburgh 0.0%   11 - 19 4 - 13 +5.7      +3.1 98 +2.6 100 61.9 340 +3.0 119 +3.5 15
137 Boston College 0.0%   10 - 20 3 - 14 +1.3      -2.9 253 +4.2 67 65.1 269 -1.3 179 +1.4 17
148 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 19 2 - 15 +0.7      -1.2 197 +1.9 121 75.6 26 -1.2 177 -2.3 18


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Mar 2 1 Duke 93 36 North Carolina St. 64   
Tue, Mar 3 40 Clemson 63 27 North Carolina 67   
Tue, Mar 3 21 Virginia 75 69 Wake Forest 70   
Tue, Mar 3 13 Louisville 77 77 Syracuse 62   
Tue, Mar 3 137 Boston College 63 56 Virginia Tech 72   
Wed, Mar 4 34 Miami (FL) 77 41 SMU 69   
Wed, Mar 4 89 Notre Dame 78 60 Stanford 86   
Wed, Mar 4 73 California 76 148 Georgia Tech 65   
Wed, Mar 4 75 Florida St. 75 95 Pittsburgh 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Mar 7 13 Louisville 81 34 Miami (FL) 79 54%   
Sat, Mar 7 1 Duke 81 27 North Carolina 67 91%   
Sat, Mar 7 73 California 74 69 Wake Forest 78 63%   
Sat, Mar 7 36 North Carolina St. 83 60 Stanford 75 77%   
Sat, Mar 7 21 Virginia 77 56 Virginia Tech 67 84%   
Sat, Mar 7 75 Florida St. 84 41 SMU 86 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 95 Pittsburgh 69 77 Syracuse 74 69%   
Sat, Mar 7 137 Boston College 68 89 Notre Dame 70 58%   
Sat, Mar 7 40 Clemson 78 148 Georgia Tech 62 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 100.0
Virginia 2.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 2.9 7.7 92.3
North Carolina 4.0 4.4 95.6
Clemson 4.1 85.8 14.2
North Carolina St. 6.1 5.1 82.7 12.2
Louisville 6.3 3.5 60.9 35.6
Florida St. 7.9 4.4 19.3 53.7 22.7
California 8.0 3.9 18.1 52.2 25.7
SMU 9.2 36.3 22.7 26.4 13.2 1.5
Stanford 10.3 8.5 11.0 29.8 43.5 7.1
Virginia Tech 10.5 5.7 7.8 29.0 46.2 11.4
Syracuse 13.2 80.4 19.6
Wake Forest 13.3 74.3 25.7
Notre Dame 15.1 87.0 13.0
Pittsburgh 15.4 60.4 39.6
Boston College 16.3 28.5 13.0 58.6
Georgia Tech 18.0 3.9 96.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 17 - 1 29 - 2 8.1 91.9
Virginia 15 - 3 27 - 4 16.1 83.9
Miami (FL) 13 - 5 24 - 7 53.6 46.4
North Carolina 12 - 6 24 - 7 91.9 8.1
Clemson 12 - 6 22 - 9 6.7 93.3
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 20 - 11 23.0 77.0
Louisville 11 - 7 22 - 9 46.4 53.6
Florida St. 9 - 9 16 - 15 59.0 41.1
California 9 - 9 20 - 10 62.0 38.0
SMU 9 - 9 20 - 11 41.1 59.0
Stanford 8 - 10 19 - 12 77.0 23.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 19 - 12 83.9 16.1
Syracuse 7 - 11 16 - 15 31.9 68.1
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 38.0 62.0
Notre Dame 5 - 13 14 - 17 41.5 58.6
Pittsburgh 4 - 14 11 - 20 68.1 31.9
Boston College 3 - 15 10 - 21 58.6 41.5
Georgia Tech 2 - 16 11 - 20 93.3 6.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 100.0% 100.0
Virginia
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Clemson
North Carolina St.
Louisville
Florida St.
California
SMU
Stanford
Virginia Tech
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Georgia Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 71.2% 28.8% 1   96.7 3.3 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 99.5% 8.1% 91.4% 6   0.0 0.3 3.2 8.3 22.0 29.9 19.7 10.5 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.5 99.4%
Virginia 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 4   0.7 10.5 27.3 33.5 22.2 5.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 99.8% 3.1% 96.7% 6   0.1 2.1 8.3 29.7 40.5 16.3 2.5 0.2 0.2 99.8%
Miami (FL) 97.3% 3.5% 93.8% 7   0.0 0.4 1.2 8.1 21.8 27.0 20.6 12.5 5.2 0.5 2.7 97.2%
North Carolina St. 89.1% 1.7% 87.4% 9   0.0 0.2 0.9 6.9 14.9 22.5 24.3 16.2 3.3 11.0 88.9%
Clemson 91.4% 2.5% 88.9% 8   0.0 0.8 5.0 15.4 26.1 25.9 15.5 2.7 8.6 91.1%
SMU 58.3% 0.6% 57.7% 11   0.1 0.4 1.1 3.6 8.6 22.1 22.1 0.4 41.7 58.1%
Virginia Tech 19.0% 0.2% 18.8% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 3.4 13.3 1.5 81.0 18.8%
Stanford 13.3% 0.1% 13.1% 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.1 9.0 0.5 86.7 13.1%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.1%
California 16.5% 0.1% 16.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.3 12.0 0.7 83.5 16.4%
Florida St. 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 98.7 1.3%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.2 4.0 28.6 46.8 18.3 2.1 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.4 7.9 43.1 41.3 7.0 0.4
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.7 5.7 21.7 35.9 26.8 8.2 1.0 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.9% 2.4 1.1 15.7 40.0 31.2 10.4 1.5 0.1
Elite Eight 86.1% 1.2 13.9 53.9 27.4 4.5 0.2 0.0
Final Four 64.1% 0.7 36.0 56.9 7.1 0.1
Final Game 40.4% 0.4 59.6 39.3 1.1
Champion 23.9% 0.2 76.1 23.9

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 89.3% 72.2% 55.0% 36.8% 22.7%
Louisville 99.5% 0.1% 99.5% 77.8% 36.4% 14.7% 6.0% 2.3% 0.6%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.7% 50.8% 17.2% 5.7% 1.6% 0.5%
North Carolina 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 71.9% 26.8% 7.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 97.3% 0.6% 97.1% 56.2% 14.3% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 89.1% 3.8% 87.5% 43.9% 8.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Clemson 91.4% 2.8% 90.0% 42.7% 7.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 58.3% 23.8% 47.4% 19.6% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 19.0% 15.2% 10.3% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 13.3% 9.7% 7.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 16.5% 13.0% 8.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%