Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Duke 100.0%   2   11 - 1 0 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 3 +21.9      +10.8 11 +11.1 5 69.8 173 +24.7 7 0.0 1
13 Louisville 98.3%   4   10 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +17.9      +11.3 9 +6.6 29 74.5 55 +18.0 19 0.0 1
21 North Carolina 97.7%   5   12 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 12 - 6 +16.0      +7.9 35 +8.1 16 70.3 160 +22.7 12 0.0 1
26 Virginia 92.1%   7   11 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 12 - 6 +15.1      +10.5 13 +4.6 60 65.2 293 +17.4 21 0.0 1
28 North Carolina St. 81.4%   8   9 - 4 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +14.8      +9.1 20 +5.7 38 72.8 86 +10.8 57 0.0 1
35 Miami (FL) 70.4%   10   11 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13.2      +6.4 53 +6.9 26 73.3 77 +14.5 34 0.0 1
40 Clemson 68.3%   10   10 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +12.2      +6.0 58 +6.3 32 62.3 346 +14.2 36 0.0 1
42 SMU 69.7%   9   10 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.1      +8.1 32 +4.0 70 72.3 104 +15.9 28 0.0 1
61 Wake Forest 19.7%   9 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.8      +4.2 78 +4.6 58 73.3 74 +9.7 61 0.0 1
64 Notre Dame 18.8%   9 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.4      +4.0 80 +4.4 64 64.0 318 +9.2 66 0.0 1
65 California 28.1%   11 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +8.3      +4.2 77 +4.1 68 68.5 212 +15.3 30 0.0 1
74 Virginia Tech 18.2%   11 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +7.7      +4.7 69 +3.0 86 70.1 164 +12.6 45 0.0 1
75 Syracuse 10.3%   9 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +7.6      +3.9 85 +3.7 73 69.7 180 +8.0 76 0.0 1
81 Stanford 14.1%   10 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +6.9      +3.4 96 +3.5 76 72.6 92 +10.0 60 0.0 1
84 Pittsburgh 3.5%   7 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 11 +6.6      +4.4 74 +2.2 103 62.9 335 +2.3 137 0.0 1
113 Florida St. 0.2%   7 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 19 5 - 13 +3.5      +2.0 119 +1.5 121 80.7 7 +0.1 163 0.0 1
129 Georgia Tech 0.1%   8 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 17 5 - 13 +2.0      -1.0 193 +3.0 84 73.7 68 +0.4 158 0.0 1
156 Boston College 0.0%   6 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 20 4 - 14 +0.3      -2.5 233 +2.7 96 65.7 281 -4.2 234 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 21 North Carolina 71 31 Ohio St. 70   
Sat, Dec 20 4 Duke 81 24 Texas Tech 82   
Sat, Dec 20 73 Colorado 68 81 Stanford 77   
Sat, Dec 20 94 Maryland 72 26 Virginia 80   
Sat, Dec 20 166 Elon 81 74 Virginia Tech 82   
Sat, Dec 20 205 Northeastern 83 75 Syracuse 91   
Sat, Dec 20 13 Louisville 94 209 Montana 54   
Sat, Dec 20 129 Georgia Tech 95 321 Lafayette 81   
Sun, Dec 21 67 Cincinnati 65 40 Clemson 68   
Sun, Dec 21 28 North Carolina St. 76 63 Mississippi 62   
Sun, Dec 21 9 Vanderbilt 98 61 Wake Forest 67   
Sun, Dec 21 126 Penn St. 46 84 Pittsburgh 80   
Sun, Dec 21 65 California 74 142 Columbia 56   
Sun, Dec 21 64 Notre Dame 69 199 Purdue Fort Wayne 72   
Sun, Dec 21 282 Central Arkansas 82 42 SMU 99   
Sun, Dec 21 35 Miami (FL) 105 350 North Florida 67   
Mon, Dec 22 113 Florida St. 87 317 Jacksonville 63   
Mon, Dec 22 268 American 51 26 Virginia 95   
Mon, Dec 22 271 East Carolina 51 21 North Carolina 99   
Mon, Dec 22 338 Stonehill 48 75 Syracuse 77   
Mon, Dec 22 156 Boston College 72 357 Fairleigh Dickinson 61   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 27 212 Cal St. Northridge 75 81 Stanford 88 89%   
Sun, Dec 28 242 Cal St. Fullerton 75 42 SMU 95 96%   
Sun, Dec 28 156 Boston College 79 312 Le Moyne 67 87%   
Sun, Dec 28 341 Florida A&M 65 129 Georgia Tech 82 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.9 60.8 18.3 8.9 5.2 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.8 19.4 19.8 15.6 12.4 9.5 7.4 5.5 3.9 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 4.8 11.3 14.3 14.4 13.2 11.4 9.5 7.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Virginia 4.7 10.9 16.1 15.0 13.1 11.1 9.2 7.3 5.3 4.0 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.2 9.0 13.5 13.3 12.2 11.5 10.2 8.1 6.4 5.1 3.7 2.7 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.2 8.0 13.3 14.0 12.9 11.7 10.0 8.5 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Clemson 6.3 4.4 8.7 10.5 10.9 11.1 10.6 10.0 8.6 7.0 5.5 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
SMU 7.5 2.8 5.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 9.7 10.0 9.4 9.2 7.5 6.4 5.1 3.7 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2
Wake Forest 10.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.5 5.9 7.3 8.4 9.0 9.5 9.7 9.1 8.0 6.8 5.7 4.0 2.7 1.2
Notre Dame 9.9 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.1 7.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 9.9 9.1 7.7 6.5 5.1 3.3 2.1 1.0
California 9.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.0 5.3 6.3 7.7 8.5 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.4 7.2 6.4 5.4 3.7 2.6 1.2
Virginia Tech 11.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.6 8.1 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.7 9.8 8.5 6.4 3.8 1.6
Syracuse 11.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.1 5.4 6.8 8.4 9.3 9.8 10.3 9.7 8.9 7.9 5.8 4.2 1.9
Stanford 11.7 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.2 7.8 5.3 3.1
Pittsburgh 12.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.0 4.1 5.5 6.7 7.7 8.6 9.6 10.2 10.3 10.2 8.5 6.7 3.8
Florida St. 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.8 5.3 7.0 8.6 10.8 12.9 15.4 15.7 12.6
Georgia Tech 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.2 5.7 7.5 9.9 12.8 16.3 19.1 16.7
Boston College 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.9 7.1 10.3 15.0 21.6 31.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.9 10.5 16.4 21.1 21.1 14.8 5.3
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.4 8.0 11.9 15.9 17.3 16.4 12.3 6.8 2.6 0.6
North Carolina 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.5 11.4 15.1 16.9 16.4 12.7 7.3 3.7 1.1 0.2
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.6 11.2 14.4 16.6 16.3 13.5 8.5 4.0 1.2 0.2
North Carolina St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.3 8.7 12.6 15.6 16.4 14.9 11.0 6.6 3.1 0.9 0.2
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.3 8.4 13.0 15.3 16.7 15.0 10.9 6.8 3.0 0.9 0.2
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.8 8.3 12.2 15.1 16.1 14.5 11.8 7.6 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.0
SMU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 8.1 11.9 14.6 15.4 14.2 11.5 7.6 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.5 7.8 11.4 14.7 15.3 14.5 11.8 8.3 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 7.0 11.0 14.4 16.1 15.1 12.4 8.9 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
California 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.0 7.1 10.6 13.4 14.9 14.6 12.3 9.2 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 7 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.9 11.3 15.6 16.9 15.4 12.5 8.4 4.9 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 7 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.3 6.4 10.6 14.2 16.1 15.4 13.0 9.1 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.8 8.6 12.3 14.7 16.0 14.0 10.9 7.5 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.6 9.7 13.2 15.6 15.3 13.2 10.3 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 0.7 3.3 8.2 13.7 16.6 17.2 15.0 10.9 6.9 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 1.0 4.7 10.6 16.0 18.8 17.2 13.4 8.8 5.3 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 4 - 14 3.5 9.5 16.8 19.6 18.1 13.9 9.2 5.3 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 60.8% 44.2 12.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisville 19.4% 10.6 6.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 11.3% 5.7 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia 10.9% 5.0 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 9.0% 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
Miami (FL) 8.0% 3.5 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Clemson 4.4% 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
SMU 2.8% 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 2   34.6 34.0 18.2 7.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 98.3% 17.5% 80.9% 4   4.4 10.1 17.0 18.6 16.1 12.4 8.5 5.6 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 1.7 98.0%
North Carolina 97.7% 10.3% 87.4% 5   2.0 5.9 13.4 17.8 18.3 15.4 10.1 6.6 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.0 2.3 97.5%
Virginia 92.1% 8.3% 83.8% 7   0.6 1.7 5.6 9.5 12.4 14.5 13.8 12.4 10.2 7.8 3.5 0.1 7.9 91.4%
North Carolina St. 81.4% 7.3% 74.0% 8   0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 7.4 10.5 13.9 14.2 12.2 9.9 5.2 0.2 18.6 79.9%
Miami (FL) 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 10   0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.4 9.3 11.2 12.6 12.7 8.5 0.2 29.6 68.8%
Clemson 68.3% 3.3% 65.1% 10   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.7 9.1 11.9 13.4 14.1 8.8 0.2 31.7 67.3%
SMU 69.7% 3.0% 66.7% 9   0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.5 6.9 9.5 12.4 13.2 12.1 7.7 0.2 0.0 30.3 68.8%
Wake Forest 19.7% 0.7% 19.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.7 6.6 0.3 80.3 19.2%
Notre Dame 18.8% 0.6% 18.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.8 5.7 0.2 81.2 18.3%
California 28.1% 0.6% 27.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 8.0 8.3 0.3 71.9 27.6%
Virginia Tech 18.2% 0.4% 17.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.5 5.9 0.2 81.8 17.9%
Syracuse 10.3% 0.3% 10.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 3.7 0.3 0.0 89.7 10.1%
Stanford 14.1% 0.2% 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.4 4.4 0.1 85.9 13.9%
Pittsburgh 3.5% 0.2% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.5 3.3%
Florida St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.2%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.1% 74.4% 47.4% 26.8% 14.3% 7.2%
Louisville 98.3% 1.0% 97.9% 81.5% 46.1% 21.0% 9.2% 3.7% 1.4%
North Carolina 97.7% 1.5% 97.0% 74.5% 35.7% 13.6% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6%
Virginia 92.1% 4.2% 90.0% 60.1% 23.5% 8.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
North Carolina St. 81.4% 6.0% 78.6% 49.5% 16.9% 6.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 70.4% 9.7% 65.8% 36.5% 10.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Clemson 68.3% 9.9% 63.4% 32.2% 7.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
SMU 69.7% 8.8% 65.2% 33.9% 8.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Wake Forest 19.7% 7.4% 15.7% 6.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 18.8% 6.4% 15.2% 5.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 28.1% 9.2% 22.6% 8.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 18.2% 6.5% 14.4% 5.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 10.3% 4.4% 7.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 14.1% 4.9% 11.2% 3.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 3.5% 1.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.0 0.8 7.2 26.4 38.0 21.7 5.4 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.1 2.1 13.9 35.0 33.7 13.1 1.9 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.0 0.1 1.3 7.7 24.1 34.4 24.0 7.4 1.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.5% 2.3 2.5 19.1 38.2 28.7 9.8 1.5 0.1
Elite Eight 75.5% 1.1 24.5 48.3 23.0 4.0 0.3 0.0
Final Four 43.8% 0.5 56.2 38.6 5.1 0.2
Final Game 21.5% 0.2 78.5 20.9 0.6
Champion 9.8% 0.1 90.2 9.8