Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   10 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +22.5      +11.1 9 +11.5 2 67.1 252 +28.0 2 0.0 1
13 Louisville 98.5%   4   8 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +18.3      +11.6 5 +6.7 27 74.8 54 +19.5 13 0.0 1
22 North Carolina 91.2%   5   7 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15.0      +7.8 33 +7.2 20 74.0 78 +20.8 11 0.0 1
23 Virginia 88.6%   7   8 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +14.9      +10.1 13 +4.8 51 65.4 289 +16.5 24 0.0 1
32 Miami (FL) 70.8%   9   8 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13.4      +5.7 59 +7.7 16 73.8 81 +14.8 29 0.0 1
33 Clemson 75.8%   9   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +13.3      +7.5 40 +5.8 39 64.1 316 +13.8 38 0.0 1
36 North Carolina St. 64.7%   9   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +12.8      +9.5 16 +3.4 79 74.0 74 +9.8 65 0.0 1
40 SMU 69.0%   10   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.0      +6.9 47 +5.0 48 74.4 65 +18.3 16 0.0 1
50 Wake Forest 39.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +10.5      +5.4 61 +5.1 47 73.4 88 +9.8 66 0.0 1
58 Notre Dame 36.5%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +9.5      +4.9 67 +4.6 54 63.8 320 +13.8 37 0.0 1
60 Syracuse 25.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.2      +3.3 91 +5.9 38 69.7 179 +12.2 48 0.0 1
67 Virginia Tech 25.2%   8 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +8.5      +4.9 66 +3.6 72 71.4 137 +13.1 43 0.0 1
76 California 19.7%   8 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +7.6      +4.5 72 +3.1 84 68.5 207 +13.9 36 0.0 1
85 Stanford 12.3%   7 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +6.4      +3.1 97 +3.4 80 74.6 57 +11.2 58 0.0 1
95 Pittsburgh 3.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 12 +5.3      +3.0 99 +2.3 100 63.0 337 +2.7 132 0.0 1
101 Florida St. 2.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 12 +4.9      +1.6 127 +3.3 81 81.6 8 +3.6 120 0.0 1
135 Georgia Tech 0.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 4 - 14 +1.8      -2.5 238 +4.2 63 74.0 73 -0.8 183 0.0 1
145 Boston College 0.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 20 4 - 14 +1.0      -2.6 240 +3.6 71 66.9 255 -3.0 211 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 26 Auburn 83 36 North Carolina St. 73   
Wed, Dec 3 46 Texas 69 23 Virginia 88   
Wed, Dec 3 10 Alabama 90 33 Clemson 84   
Wed, Dec 3 20 Arkansas 89 13 Louisville 80   
Wed, Dec 3 40 SMU 69 11 Vanderbilt 88   
Wed, Dec 3 145 Boston College 69 31 LSU 78   
Wed, Dec 3 135 Georgia Tech 73 78 Mississippi St. 85   
Fri, Dec 5 58 Notre Dame 87 47 TCU 85   
Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke 66 12 Michigan St. 60   
Sat, Dec 6 28 Indiana 78 13 Louisville 87   
Sat, Dec 6 74 George Mason 62 67 Virginia Tech 73   
Sat, Dec 6 50 Wake Forest 75 71 West Virginia 66   
Sat, Dec 6 70 Dayton 73 23 Virginia 86   
Sat, Dec 6 76 California 67 137 Pacific 61   
Sat, Dec 6 101 Florida St. 67 8 Houston 82   
Sat, Dec 6 135 Georgia Tech 79 207 Monmouth 67   
Sat, Dec 6 36 North Carolina St. 75 203 UNC Asheville 63   
Sat, Dec 6 32 Miami (FL) 88 224 Southern Miss 64   
Sat, Dec 6 145 Boston College 67 332 New Haven 63   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 40 SMU 81 39 Texas A&M 82 50%   
Sun, Dec 7 86 Georgetown 72 22 North Carolina 84 86%   
Sun, Dec 7 139 Hofstra 64 95 Pittsburgh 71 74%   
Sun, Dec 7 85 Stanford 87 132 UNLV 80 77%   
Tue, Dec 9 9 BYU 76 33 Clemson 70 72%   
Tue, Dec 9 345 Maryland Eastern Shore 51 23 Virginia 80 99%   
Wed, Dec 10 94 Liberty 73 36 North Carolina St. 83 83%   
Wed, Dec 10 145 Boston College 70 167 Massachusetts 72 55%   
Wed, Dec 10 173 Idaho 64 58 Notre Dame 78 89%   
Thu, Dec 11 178 Saint Joseph's 65 60 Syracuse 78 89%   
Thu, Dec 11 67 Virginia Tech 86 289 Western Carolina 67 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.8 64.4 17.4 8.4 4.3 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.7 20.5 21.2 15.8 12.2 8.8 6.4 4.6 3.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 5.9 7.5 11.0 11.8 11.5 10.9 9.5 8.2 7.0 6.1 4.6 3.7 3.0 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Virginia 5.0 9.5 16.0 14.8 13.3 10.7 8.7 7.0 5.6 4.3 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.3 7.9 14.1 13.8 12.5 11.0 9.4 7.8 6.8 5.0 3.9 2.7 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
Clemson 5.6 7.0 12.4 12.7 12.7 11.0 9.8 8.3 6.7 5.5 4.3 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1
North Carolina St. 7.0 3.8 7.6 8.7 9.4 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.6 7.8 6.8 5.3 4.6 3.4 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2
SMU 7.9 2.3 5.4 6.3 7.8 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.2 8.3 7.8 7.0 5.7 4.6 3.6 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.3
Wake Forest 8.6 1.4 3.8 5.4 6.6 7.4 7.9 8.7 9.0 8.7 8.7 7.3 7.0 5.6 4.4 3.5 2.5 1.4 0.7
Notre Dame 9.0 1.2 2.8 4.1 5.5 6.7 7.6 8.5 9.5 9.1 8.9 7.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.8 0.7
Syracuse 9.8 0.8 2.2 3.3 4.1 5.4 6.6 7.4 8.4 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.5 7.5 6.4 5.1 4.1 2.2 1.2
Virginia Tech 10.9 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.6 5.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 9.6 10.6 10.3 9.0 7.7 5.4 3.3 1.5
California 10.6 0.4 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.4 5.3 6.3 7.0 8.2 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.1 6.8 5.5 3.9 2.3
Stanford 12.2 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.1 3.9 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 10.6 9.2 7.4 4.6
Pittsburgh 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.3 5.7 6.3 8.4 9.9 11.2 12.1 11.9 11.2 8.1
Florida St. 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.3 4.1 5.5 6.4 8.4 9.7 11.2 12.4 12.6 11.2 8.1
Georgia Tech 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.9 9.3 12.8 16.1 19.9 19.8
Boston College 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.7 8.0 11.0 15.5 20.9 27.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 5.0 9.5 14.9 19.9 22.0 17.4 7.4
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.6 7.4 11.1 15.0 16.8 16.4 13.1 8.0 3.3 0.7
North Carolina 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.0 10.5 13.3 15.0 14.7 13.0 9.5 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.1
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.9 7.6 11.3 14.4 15.9 15.5 12.6 7.9 4.0 1.3 0.2
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.5 9.1 12.6 14.8 16.0 14.1 11.0 7.1 3.2 0.9 0.2
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.8 13.3 15.1 15.4 13.7 10.0 5.8 2.8 0.7 0.1
North Carolina St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.9 10.4 13.2 14.5 14.5 12.5 9.3 6.1 3.1 1.0 0.4 0.0
SMU 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 5.9 9.3 12.4 14.3 14.3 13.3 10.4 7.2 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.6 7.6 10.7 13.5 14.6 13.8 12.2 9.0 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.3 8.9 11.8 13.9 15.3 14.0 11.3 7.4 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.3 10.1 13.4 14.7 14.6 12.2 9.2 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.0 6.0 10.1 13.9 16.2 15.8 13.0 9.5 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.0 9.2 12.6 14.0 14.6 13.0 10.3 7.4 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.4 10.0 13.6 15.1 14.5 12.2 9.5 6.6 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 6 - 12 0.5 2.1 5.7 9.5 13.4 15.1 15.6 13.3 10.1 6.7 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.7 9.9 13.5 16.0 15.4 13.1 10.0 6.4 3.8 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 4 - 14 1.5 5.9 12.1 16.8 19.1 16.2 12.1 7.9 4.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 4 - 14 2.7 8.6 15.2 18.4 18.0 14.6 10.2 6.3 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 64.4% 48.5 12.2 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisville 20.5% 11.4 6.6 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 7.5% 3.6 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia 9.5% 4.5 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 7.9% 3.4 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Clemson 7.0% 2.9 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 3.8% 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
SMU 2.3% 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0
Boston College 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1   50.2 31.9 11.5 4.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 98.5% 18.8% 79.7% 4   9.6 16.2 19.7 17.8 12.9 9.0 5.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.5 98.1%
North Carolina 91.2% 7.2% 83.9% 5   1.8 4.6 9.7 12.7 13.9 13.4 11.7 8.6 6.7 5.0 2.9 0.1 0.0 8.8 90.5%
Virginia 88.6% 8.0% 80.6% 7   1.0 2.7 6.1 9.8 12.3 13.5 12.6 10.8 9.1 7.2 3.5 0.1 11.4 87.6%
Miami (FL) 70.8% 4.9% 65.9% 9   0.2 0.6 1.8 4.1 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 6.6 0.2 29.2 69.3%
Clemson 75.8% 4.8% 71.0% 9   0.2 0.8 2.4 4.8 7.6 9.8 10.8 11.6 11.1 10.5 5.9 0.2 24.2 74.6%
North Carolina St. 64.7% 3.8% 60.9% 9   0.2 0.4 1.7 3.4 5.5 7.7 9.7 11.1 10.3 8.7 5.7 0.3 0.0 35.3 63.3%
SMU 69.0% 2.7% 66.3% 10   0.1 0.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 8.6 9.5 9.9 10.6 9.8 7.5 0.3 31.0 68.1%
Wake Forest 39.4% 1.5% 37.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.0 6.2 7.5 9.1 7.5 0.3 0.0 60.6 38.5%
Notre Dame 36.5% 1.1% 35.4% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.0 8.9 7.3 0.3 63.5 35.8%
Syracuse 25.5% 0.9% 24.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.6 6.2 6.0 0.3 74.5 24.8%
Virginia Tech 25.2% 0.5% 24.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.0 6.3 6.2 0.3 74.8 24.8%
California 19.7% 0.4% 19.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.2 5.4 0.2 80.3 19.4%
Stanford 12.3% 0.2% 12.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.5 3.4 0.1 87.7 12.2%
Pittsburgh 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 96.6 3.3%
Florida St. 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 97.9 2.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 78.8% 53.9% 32.4% 18.3% 9.7%
Louisville 98.5% 0.9% 98.1% 85.2% 52.8% 26.1% 11.9% 5.3% 2.2%
North Carolina 91.2% 3.4% 89.4% 64.0% 28.6% 11.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Virginia 88.6% 4.1% 86.7% 59.3% 24.8% 9.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Miami (FL) 70.8% 7.6% 67.0% 40.0% 13.3% 4.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
Clemson 75.8% 6.9% 72.3% 43.2% 14.7% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
North Carolina St. 64.7% 6.6% 61.5% 35.8% 11.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
SMU 69.0% 8.5% 64.5% 35.8% 11.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Wake Forest 39.4% 8.6% 34.9% 17.0% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Notre Dame 36.5% 8.4% 32.0% 14.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 25.5% 6.9% 21.9% 10.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 25.2% 7.1% 21.3% 8.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California 19.7% 6.1% 16.1% 6.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 12.3% 3.8% 10.0% 3.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 3.4% 1.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 2.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.2 0.0 0.6 5.1 19.7 34.7 27.6 10.3 1.8 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.8 0.1 1.6 9.8 27.7 35.2 19.9 5.1 0.7 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.9 6.0 20.0 31.6 27.3 11.5 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.4% 2.5 1.6 14.4 36.3 32.4 12.7 2.4 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 81.3% 1.2 18.7 47.3 27.7 5.8 0.5 0.0
Final Four 50.8% 0.6 49.2 42.9 7.5 0.3 0.0
Final Game 27.3% 0.3 72.7 26.3 1.0
Champion 13.3% 0.1 86.7 13.3