California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#65
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#30
Pace68.5#212
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#77
First Shot+5.7#45
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#280
Layup/Dunks+0.3#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#47
Freethrows+0.4#145
Improvement-1.5#291

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#68
First Shot+4.1#55
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#192
Layups/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#168
Freethrows+3.6#15
Improvement+1.4#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 3.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 43.4% 22.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.6% 42.8% 22.1%
Average Seed 9.5 9.2 9.7
.500 or above 97.1% 99.3% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 47.4% 66.4% 40.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.9% 3.8%
First Four9.2% 10.7% 8.7%
First Round22.6% 37.2% 17.3%
Second Round8.4% 14.2% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 7
Quad 24 - 37 - 10
Quad 36 - 113 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-60 95%     1 - 0 +15.8 +6.1 +8.5
  Thu, Nov 6 153 Wright St. W 77-67 85%     2 - 0 +7.4 +3.9 +3.6
  Mon, Nov 10 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-65 92%     3 - 0 +20.3 +7.5 +10.2
  Thu, Nov 13 58 @Kansas St. L 96-99 36%     3 - 1 +8.9 +17.1 -7.8
  Tue, Nov 18 286 Presbyterian W 67-57 94%     4 - 1 +0.4 +5.3 -2.8
  Fri, Nov 21 276 Sacramento St. W 91-67 94%     5 - 1 +14.8 +8.1 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 25 30 UCLA W 80-72 28%     6 - 1 +22.4 +12.0 +10.3
  Tue, Dec 2 111 Utah W 79-72 77%     7 - 1 +7.6 +6.3 +1.4
  Sat, Dec 6 138 Pacific W 67-61 82%     8 - 1 +4.7 +3.5 +2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 273 Northwestern St. W 79-70 94%     9 - 1 +0.0 +3.4 -3.0
  Fri, Dec 19 360 Morgan St. W 97-50 98%     10 - 1 +28.5 +14.7 +14.2
  Sun, Dec 21 142 Columbia W 74-56 83%     11 - 1 +16.2 +3.9 +13.1
  Tue, Dec 30 13 Louisville L 75-82 27%    
  Fri, Jan 2 64 Notre Dame W 72-69 61%    
  Wed, Jan 7 26 @Virginia L 69-79 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 74 @Virginia Tech L 74-76 41%    
  Wed, Jan 14 4 Duke L 68-79 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 21 North Carolina L 71-76 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 81 @Stanford L 74-76 44%    
  Wed, Jan 28 113 @Florida St. W 80-78 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 35 @Miami (FL) L 71-79 23%    
  Wed, Feb 4 129 Georgia Tech W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 40 Clemson L 69-70 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 75 @Syracuse L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 156 @Boston College W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 81 Stanford W 77-73 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 42 SMU L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 84 Pittsburgh W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 129 @Georgia Tech W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Mar 7 61 @Wake Forest L 73-77 38%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.5 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 4.5 1.8 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.5 4.0 3.6 0.4 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 5.4 1.2 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.1 2.8 0.2 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.6 5.0 1.7 0.0 8.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.0 0.3 7.2 13th
14th 0.2 1.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.3 3.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.0 7.1 10.6 13.4 14.9 14.6 12.3 9.2 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 79.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 55.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 18.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 95.5% 4.5% 90.9% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
15-3 0.5% 99.3% 9.5% 89.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
14-4 1.5% 98.4% 3.8% 94.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.4%
13-5 3.2% 92.8% 2.6% 90.2% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 92.6%
12-6 5.9% 84.5% 2.0% 82.6% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 84.2%
11-7 9.2% 68.4% 1.2% 67.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.0 2.9 68.0%
10-8 12.3% 47.8% 0.6% 47.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.5 0.0 6.4 47.5%
9-9 14.6% 27.9% 0.4% 27.5% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 0.1 10.5 27.6%
8-10 14.9% 9.6% 0.2% 9.4% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 13.5 9.4%
7-11 13.4% 2.0% 0.0% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.1 1.9%
6-12 10.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.1%
5-13 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 4.0% 4.0
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.1% 0.6% 27.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 8.0 8.3 0.3 71.9 27.6%