Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.8 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #137
Pace 63.3 #326
Improvement -0.1 #194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #80 B B- B- D+ C+
Defense #116 C B+ C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.20 #123 +0.9 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #235 0.88 #41 -0.1 #179
Three Pointers 44% #128 1.07 #112 +2.6 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #83 +3.4 #83
Freethrows 16.5 #253 69% #295 11.4 #274
Second Chance 34.8% #63 1.02 #215 0.35 #103
Turnovers 15.5% #118
Total Offense +4.1 #80

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.08 #84 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.79 #230 -0.1 #190
Three Pointers 39% #230 1.03 #202 +0.6 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.8 #153
Freethrows 16.2 #101 76% #342 12.4 #154
Second Chance 25.9% #35 0.98 #95 0.25 #39
Turnovers 16.6% #174
Total Defense +1.7 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #136 0.4% #203
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #88 -2.1% #146
Possession Length 18.5 #291 17.7 #247
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.16 #158
Improvement +1.1 #120 -1.2 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.5 11.6
.500 or above 2.6% 6.4% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 5.0% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.1% 16.4% 38.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 12
Quad 23 - 45 - 16
Quad 32 - 37 - 19
Quad 45 - 112 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 213 Youngstown St. W 74 - 59 87% +3  1 - 0 +9 +3 D A+ F +7 C A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 262 Longwood W 78 - 60 90% +5  2 - 0 +9 +0 C- C+ F +9 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 198 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 66 86% +11  3 - 0 +6 +4 C+ C A+ +2 A+ B D-
 Thu, Nov 13 52 @West Virginia L 49 - 71 23% -9  3 - 1 -8 -11 C+ F D -0 A- A F
 Mon, Nov 17 319 Bucknell W 84 - 50 95% +20  4 - 1 +21 +14 A+ A F +10 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 53 Central Florida L 67 - 77 33% -5  4 - 2 +1 +6 D+ B+ D -7 B F B
 Sun, Nov 23 175 Quinnipiac L 75 - 83 83% -5  4 - 3 -12 +3 B+ B- F -16 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 30 Ohio St. W 67 - 66 30% +4  5 - 3 +12 +2 C F A+ +10 A+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 2 34 Texas A&M L 73 - 81 31% -4  5 - 4 +3 +11 C A+ A+ -8 B D+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 126 Hofstra L 73 - 80 74% -7  5 - 5 -8 +8 A+ F D -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 33 @Villanova L 61 - 79 15% -6  5 - 6 -1 +8 F A+ C -13 D+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 362 Binghamton W 103 - 63 98% +21  6 - 6 +21 +20 A+ F F +1 F A A+
 Sun, Dec 21 116 Penn St. W 80 - 46 60% +16  7 - 6 +37 +13 A+ D+ A+ +27 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 76 18% +1  7 - 7 0 - 1 +8 +8 D+ A- A+ -0 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 32 Clemson L 68 - 73 31% -2  7 - 8 0 - 2 +6 +5 B B- B- +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 67 Syracuse L 72 - 83 52% -11  7 - 9 0 - 3 -6 +6 B C+ C -12 F C- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 113 @Georgia Tech W 89 - 66 48% +15  8 - 9 1 - 3 +29 +24 A+ A+ B +6 A C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 13 Louisville L 59 - 100 19% -27  8 - 10 1 - 4 -26 -4 C C B+ -25 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 134 @Boston College L 62 - 65 55% -1  8 - 11 1 - 5 +2 +2 D A A+ -0 D+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 26 North Carolina St. L 71 - 77 27%
 Tue, Jan 27 63 Wake Forest W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 32 @Clemson L 62 - 73 15%
 Tue, Feb 3 16 @Virginia L 63 - 78 8%
 Sat, Feb 7 29 SMU L 74 - 79 30%
 Tue, Feb 10 3 Duke L 66 - 79 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 31 @North Carolina L 70 - 81 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 84 Notre Dame W 70 - 68 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 77 @Stanford L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 75 @California L 69 - 74 33%
 Wed, Mar 4 111 Florida St. W 80 - 75 68%
 Sat, Mar 7 67 @Syracuse L 70 - 75 31%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 13 +6 +4 B B- B- +2 C B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.4 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 2.1 3.3 0.2 5.7 12th
13th 0.9 5.7 1.7 0.0 8.3 13th
14th 0.2 5.2 6.1 0.3 11.8 14th
15th 0.1 3.0 9.0 2.1 0.0 14.2 15th
16th 0.0 1.7 8.6 5.9 0.3 16.5 16th
17th 1.1 6.6 8.5 1.3 0.0 17.5 17th
18th 1.5 5.8 6.9 2.0 0.1 16.3 18th
Total 1.5 6.9 15.3 22.3 22.3 16.7 9.0 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 14.3% 14.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 14.3%
9-9 1.4% 2.5% 0.4% 2.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.1%
8-10 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.2%
7-11 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 9.0
6-12 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7
5-13 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 22.3
4-14 22.3% 22.3
3-15 15.3% 15.3
2-16 6.9% 6.9
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 99.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%