Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 99
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 130
Pace 62.2 339
Improvement -1.0 233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #96 C+ B- C+ D+ C+
Defense C+ #104 C B+ C+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 188 61% 106 +1.0 141
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 252 40% 115 -1.0 235
Three Pointers 45% 113 33% 206 +1.4 130
1st FG Attempt 1.05 133 +1.3 132
Second Chance 36.2% 39 1.00 209 0.36 81
Turnovers 16.4% 149
Freethrows 0.29 235 67% 342 0.19 282
Total Offense +3.0 96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 166 56% 122 +0.5 155
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 183 38% 162 +0.1 181
Three Pointers 40% 202 34% 201 +0.1 172
1st FG Attempt 1.01 157 +0.7 157
Second Chance 26.0% 41 0.94 66 0.24 35
Turnovers 17.5% 137
Freethrows 0.28 109 76% 340 0.21 162
Total Defense +2.2 104

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 134 +0.1 179
Shot Type Accuracy +0.9 144 -0.7 157
Possession Length 18.6 308 17.9 285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 116 0.16 157
Improvement -1.2 #258 +0.1 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.0 n/a 13.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 28% 8% 31%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 22 - 53 - 16
Quad 33 - 36 - 19
Quad 45 - 111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 205 Youngstown St. W 74 - 59 85% +3  61% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 D A+ F A- +9 C+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 261 Longwood W 78 - 60 90% +5  77% 2 - 0 B +9 C- -1 C B- D+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 231 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 66 87% +11  91% 3 - 0 B- +5 C +2 C+ C+ A B- +4 A B D-
 Thu, Nov 13 56 @West Virginia L 49 - 71 23% -9  21% 3 - 1 D -9 F -12 C+ F C- C +0 B A- F
 Mon, Nov 17 324 Bucknell W 84 - 50 95% +17  86% 4 - 1 A +21 A- +10 A A- D- A+ +13 A+ A+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 52 Central Florida L 67 - 77 30% -5  14% 4 - 2 C +1 C+ +2 D B+ D+ C- -2 B F B
 Sun, Nov 23 195 Quinnipiac L 75 - 83 84% -5  9% 4 - 3 D- -13 C +1 B B F F -14 F C- A
 Fri, Nov 28 39 Ohio St. W 67 - 66 30% +4  73% 5 - 3 B+ +12 C- -1 C F A+ A+ +13 A+ A- A
 Tue, Dec 2 31 Texas A&M L 73 - 81 27% -4  6% 5 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +7 C+ A+ B+ D+ -4 B+ D C-
 Sun, Dec 7 117 Hofstra L 73 - 80 70% -7  4% 5 - 5 D+ -7 B +7 A+ D- D+ F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 32 @Villanova L 61 - 79 13% -6  14% 5 - 6 C -1 B +6 D A+ C F+ -10 D- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 361 Binghamton W 103 - 63 98% +21  98% 6 - 6 A +20 A+ +16 A+ F+ F+ B- +3 F B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 109 Penn St. W 80 - 46 55% +16  99% 7 - 6 A+ +38 A- +11 A- D+ A A+ +30 A+ A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 41 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 76 16% +1  51% 7 - 7 0 - 1 B +9 B- +5 C- A- A+ B- +3 A+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 38 Clemson L 68 - 73 29% -2  21% 7 - 8 0 - 2 B- +6 C+ +3 B- B- B B- +3 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 67 Syracuse L 72 - 83 50% -11  3% 7 - 9 0 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ B- B- D- -9 F D+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 131 @Georgia Tech W 89 - 66 51% +15  95% 8 - 9 1 - 3 A+ +28 A+ +20 A+ A+ B A- +9 B+ B- A
 Sat, Jan 17 11 Louisville L 59 - 100 15% -27  0% 8 - 10 1 - 4 F -24 D -6 C- C B F -22 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 129 @Boston College L 62 - 65 51% -1  32% 8 - 11 1 - 5 C+ +2 C -0 D A A C+ +2 D+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 27 North Carolina St. L 72 - 81 25% +1  56% 8 - 12 1 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 F A+ C+ C -0 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 63 Wake Forest W 80 - 76 OT 49% -3  12% 9 - 12 2 - 6 B +9 B- +4 D A A+ B +5 B A B+
 Sat, Jan 31 38 @Clemson L 52 - 63 14% -10  2% 9 - 13 2 - 7 B- +6 C -0 C- B+ F B- +3 A- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 23 @Virginia L 47 - 67 10% -10  11% 9 - 14 2 - 8 C -1 F -11 C D+ F B+ +8 C+ A- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 37 SMU L 67 - 86 29% -7  26% 9 - 15 2 - 9 D+ -8 D+ -2 F+ B- C+ D -7 F A- D+
 Tue, Feb 10 3 Duke L 54 - 70 8% -5  13% 9 - 16 2 - 10 C+ +5 D+ -3 B- C- C+ B +5 D B+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 26 @North Carolina L 67 - 80 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 82 Notre Dame W 70 - 68 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 74 @Stanford L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 73 @California L 68 - 73 31%
 Wed, Mar 4 93 Florida St. W 76 - 73 60%
 Sat, Mar 7 67 @Syracuse L 69 - 75 29%
Totals 11 - 20 4 - 14 +5 B- +3 C+ B- C+ C+ +2 C B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ C+ C- C+ 38% 17% 45% C+ C+ B+ C- B- C+ C- D- D+ C+ C+ C C C+ 39% 20% 40% C C B+ B B+ C+ B- D- C+
1.13 61% 40% 33% +1 0 1.05 36% 1.0 .36 16% .29 67% .19 1.05 56% 38% 34% -1 0 1.01 26% 0.9 .24 18% .28 76% .22
Nov
3		 Youngstown St. C C- F C+ D 45% 21% 33% C+ D A+ B- A+ F A+ A- A+ A- F A+ C+ C+ 29% 8% 63% C- C+ A A+ A+ C- A A+ A+
1.13 58% 22% 36% -3 0 0.98 52% 1.1 .55 27% .57 81% .46 0.90 71% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 22% 0.5 .11 18% .17 56% .09
Nov
7		 Longwood C- A+ F A C+ 20% 18% 61% F+ C B- C B- D+ A+ D+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 16% 32% F A+ A A+ A+ F A F B+
1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43 0.86 40% 22% 22% -18 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19
Nov
10		 Eastern Michigan C D- A+ F C+ 48% 22% 30% C+ C+ D+ A C+ A A- F D B- A B- A- A 45% 28% 26% C- A B- B+ B D- F F F
1.12 50% 75% 25% 0 0 1.04 26% 1.2 .31 12% .37 52% .20 0.95 46% 33% 29% -9 0 0.83 26% 0.8 .21 14% .35 86% .30
Nov
13		 West Virginia F B+ B- F B- 33% 29% 38% D- C+ D F F C- F F+ F C C C+ B+ B 40% 17% 43% C B A C+ A- F D F F+
0.78 63% 36% 28% -3 -1 0.94 19% 0.0 .00 19% .12 67% .08 1.13 58% 38% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 10% .37 76% .28
Nov
17		 Bucknell A- D- A+ A+ A 35% 20% 45% C A A C A- D- D F F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ 37% 17% 46% C A+ C- A+ A+ A F C- F
1.30 53% 60% 50% +14 0 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 20% .27 64% .17 0.77 33% 14% 26% -18 0 0.66 27% 0.5 .14 25% .47 78% .37
Nov
20		 Central Florida C+ C F F+ F+ 36% 9% 56% B+ D A+ D- B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C- D+ C- A+ B 47% 21% 32% D+ B F F F B B+ A+ A
1.07 56% 25% 28% -7 +1 0.91 36% 0.9 .33 19% .41 86% .35 1.23 64% 40% 27% 0 +1 1.02 50% 1.5 .75 18% .23 58% .14
Nov
23		 Quinnipiac C A+ F D+ B 39% 9% 52% B B A D B F A F B- F C F F F 37% 26% 37% C+ F C+ D C- A F B F
1.10 78% 0% 33% +4 +2 1.13 45% 0.9 .39 22% .37 60% .22 1.21 56% 55% 63% +20 -1 1.40 30% 1.1 .35 22% .45 67% .30
Nov
28		 Ohio St. C- A- F C- C 36% 35% 29% C- C B+ F F A+ C- F D A+ C B+ A A+ 36% 17% 47% D- A+ A B- A- A A- F B
1.03 65% 26% 31% -3 -2 0.93 36% 0.4 .13 8% .27 63% .17 1.01 65% 38% 27% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.0 .28 20% .29 87% .25
Dec
2		 Texas A&M B+ B+ D D+ C+ 33% 18% 49% C+ C+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F+ F F D+ C+ F+ B A- 51% 9% 40% D+ B+ F B- D C- F+ F F
1.13 65% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.3 .47 17% .20 64% .13 1.25 58% 50% 32% 0 +2 1.06 41% 0.9 .38 14% .39 91% .36
Dec
7		 Hofstra B F+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 23% 51% C- A+ C F D- D+ A+ A+ A+ F D F F F 47% 17% 36% F F B A+ A+ F D C- D
1.19 45% 60% 45% +11 -1 1.21 31% 0.8 .23 16% .43 86% .37 1.30 64% 50% 47% +12 +1 1.28 31% 0.8 .23 11% .33 78% .26
Dec
13		 Villanova B C- B F F+ 43% 15% 43% A- D A+ B+ A+ C B- C- C+ F+ C- A+ F D 45% 9% 45% F D- A+ D- B+ F F D F
1.05 55% 43% 20% -9 +1 0.85 44% 1.1 .47 21% .26 67% .17 1.36 65% 25% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 5% .44 75% .33
Dec
17		 Binghamton A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 10% 48% B- A+ D F F+ F+ A- F B- B- A+ F F F 43% 30% 27% B F C+ A+ B+ A+ F D+ F
1.44 67% 60% 67% +29 +2 1.64 28% 0.9 .24 15% .40 63% .25 0.88 38% 55% 60% +7 -1 1.14 19% 0.4 .08 31% .54 78% .42
Dec
21		 Penn St. A- F A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% B+ A- C+ F+ D+ A B F C- A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A A+
1.23 41% 67% 52% +8 +1 1.22 30% 1.1 .33 14% .25 57% .14 0.71 53% 40% 20% -10 0 0.82 18% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11
Dec
30		 Miami (FL) B- A- A- F C- 32% 26% 42% C- C- C- A+ A- A+ B- F D+ B- C- D- A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% A A+ D- C- D C- F F F
1.04 65% 43% 23% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 11% .29 53% .15 1.15 65% 45% 12% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.1 .46 15% .46 77% .36
Jan
3		 Clemson C+ C+ F+ C- C+ 44% 23% 33% B B- D+ A+ B- B A+ D+ A B- F F+ D+ F+ 39% 15% 46% C+ D- A+ B- A+ A+ F C+ F
1.01 57% 27% 31% -4 0 0.94 20% 1.3 .27 16% .39 73% .28 1.09 75% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.24 16% 1.0 .16 21% .47 72% .34
Jan
10		 Syracuse C+ B- A+ F B- 33% 23% 44% D+ C+ A- D B- B- F A+ C- D- D- C+ F F 44% 18% 38% C- F B+ F D+ C+ C+ F D-
1.08 59% 67% 17% -4 -1 0.92 39% 1.0 .39 18% .20 100% .20 1.25 70% 38% 53% +16 +1 1.36 27% 1.3 .36 17% .32 83% .27
Jan
14		 Georgia Tech A+ B A A+ A+ 37% 20% 43% B- A+ B A+ A+ B F A+ D A- B+ A C A 49% 16% 35% F B+ D- A+ B- A C+ B- B-
1.31 60% 45% 43% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.5 .50 13% .20 83% .17 0.97 50% 25% 35% -5 +1 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 22% .28 67% .19
Jan
17		 Louisville D C- D+ F+ C- 35% 20% 45% B+ C- D+ A- C B C+ F C- F F+ F F F 42% 8% 51% C- F A F F D- B+ F B-
0.90 53% 30% 27% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.1 .24 15% .29 63% .18 1.53 73% 75% 48% +20 +2 1.45 27% 1.8 .50 12% .26 87% .23
Jan
21		 Boston College C D- F D+ D- 45% 16% 39% B+ D B+ A A A C+ F F+ C+ B+ F C- D- 25% 31% 44% A D+ A+ F B- D+ B+ B B+
0.97 48% 13% 30% -11 +1 0.82 33% 1.1 .38 11% .30 41% .12 1.02 50% 53% 33% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 14% .24 62% .15
Jan
24		 North Carolina St. C+ F F D+ F 37% 20% 43% C- F A+ C- A+ C+ A+ F C C C- A C- B+ 42% 21% 37% B- B+ A- A+ A+ C- F D- F
1.06 42% 20% 32% -11 0 0.80 53% 0.9 .49 21% .46 44% .20 1.19 64% 27% 37% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.0 .24 12% .45 81% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Wake Forest B- F+ D+ D D- 36% 10% 53% B D B+ A A A+ A F+ B B D- D- A+ B- 34% 26% 40% A- B A- A A B+ C- D+ D+
1.11 48% 33% 29% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 11% .39 68% .27 1.06 67% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 18% .32 79% .25
Jan
31		 Clemson C A+ D- F D+ 36% 16% 48% B+ C- A+ F B+ F C- F D- B- B+ A+ C- A 41% 5% 54% D- A- A- F F A F F F
0.92 69% 29% 19% -8 0 0.86 44% 0.7 .31 25% .26 64% .17 1.12 53% 0% 35% -3 +2 1.00 23% 2.2 .50 20% .44 85% .37
Feb
3		 Virginia F A F F C- 35% 23% 43% B- C C- D D+ F C- F D- B+ B- A+ D- B- 38% 8% 54% D+ C+ B+ B+ A- B- A+ A+ A+
0.78 64% 22% 24% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.8 .18 28% .28 58% .16 1.11 56% 25% 38% +2 +2 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 17% .18 44% .08
Feb
7		 SMU D+ C D- F F 28% 20% 52% C+ F+ A- D+ B- C+ A A+ A+ D F D+ F F 38% 27% 35% C+ F A C+ A- D+ C C C
1.01 57% 30% 23% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .32 18% .35 79% .28 1.30 83% 46% 47% +19 -1 1.38 29% 1.0 .29 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
10		 Duke D+ A+ F F+ B- 24% 16% 59% B- B- D+ C- C- C+ D F F B F C+ D+ F+ 34% 16% 50% A D A- C- B+ A A+ A+ A+
0.88 75% 25% 28% -4 0 0.94 19% 0.7 .14 20% .16 38% .06 1.14 87% 43% 36% +12 0 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 21% .17 63% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 1.8 4.2 0.2 6.2 13th
14th 0.5 8.0 2.5 0.0 11.0 14th
15th 0.2 8.7 11.7 0.5 21.1 15th
16th 0.2 7.2 18.3 2.9 0.0 28.6 16th
17th 1.9 11.3 4.9 0.1 18.2 17th
18th 4.6 4.2 0.2 9.0 18th
Total 6.7 22.9 32.6 24.6 10.6 2.4 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 2.4% 2.4
6-12 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
5-13 24.6% 24.6
4-14 32.6% 32.6
3-15 22.9% 22.9
2-16 6.7% 6.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.7%