Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#40
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#45
Pace68.2#194
Improvement-5.9#359

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#26
First Shot+10.0#6
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#313
Layup/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#74
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement-1.8#284

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#68
First Shot+6.2#27
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#331
Layups/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#11
Freethrows+2.7#32
Improvement-4.1#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.7% 4.9% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.2% 57.0% 39.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.9% 55.6% 38.7%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 9.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 90.3% 67.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.1% 14.5% 13.1%
First Round44.6% 50.0% 33.8%
Second Round21.1% 23.6% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 6.4% 3.9%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.4% 1.6%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 37 - 11
Quad 37 - 114 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 205   Radford W 96-56 93%     1 - 0 +35.1 +18.7 +16.1
  Nov 08, 2024 141   Murray St. W 83-68 88%     2 - 0 +13.8 +10.6 +3.3
  Nov 11, 2024 241   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 95%     3 - 0 +11.9 +2.7 +8.4
  Nov 15, 2024 32   West Virginia W 86-62 56%     4 - 0 +34.2 +16.8 +16.6
  Nov 18, 2024 329   VMI W 93-48 98%     5 - 0 +31.9 +15.7 +17.1
  Nov 22, 2024 64   LSU W 74-63 62%     6 - 0 +19.6 +9.0 +11.0
  Nov 24, 2024 18   Wisconsin L 75-81 35%     6 - 1 +9.8 +9.9 -0.2
  Nov 29, 2024 36   @ Ohio St. W 91-90 OT 37%     7 - 1 +16.3 +19.2 -2.9
  Dec 04, 2024 23   @ Mississippi St. L 57-90 28%     7 - 2 -15.1 -6.4 -9.9
  Dec 07, 2024 137   @ Virginia Tech W 64-59 76%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +9.4 -2.5 +12.3
  Dec 11, 2024 247   Eastern Kentucky W 96-56 95%     9 - 2 +32.4 +17.1 +15.3
  Dec 21, 2024 169   Sam Houston St. W 110-78 91%     10 - 2 +28.9 +29.7 -2.0
  Jan 01, 2025 118   California W 86-74 86%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +12.0 +16.2 -3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 88   Stanford W 83-68 78%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +18.7 +14.6 +5.0
  Jan 07, 2025 1   @ Duke L 47-76 9%     12 - 3 3 - 1 -2.5 -9.2 +4.4
  Jan 11, 2025 27   Louisville L 78-82 53%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +7.0 +10.4 -3.4
  Jan 15, 2025 58   @ Florida St. L 70-82 48%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +0.3 -3.3 +4.8
  Jan 18, 2025 30   Clemson L 75-78 OT 55%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +7.4 +16.3 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 103   @ Syracuse W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 26   North Carolina W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 03, 2025 107   Virginia W 69-58 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   @ North Carolina L 76-81 32%    
  Feb 11, 2025 37   @ SMU L 77-80 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 155   Miami (FL) W 86-72 91%    
  Feb 18, 2025 103   Syracuse W 82-71 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 77   @ Notre Dame W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 104   Georgia Tech W 81-70 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 74-79 32%    
  Mar 05, 2025 93   @ North Carolina St. W 73-70 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 193   Boston College W 82-66 93%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.9 0.6 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 6.0 1.6 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 9.0 3.4 0.2 16.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 9.7 5.9 0.3 18.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 7.0 6.1 0.9 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.2 1.2 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.3 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.2 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.8 10.5 16.6 21.2 20.8 13.7 7.6 2.2 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.2% 97.7% 10.4% 87.4% 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
14-6 7.6% 93.8% 5.9% 87.9% 7.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.5 93.4%
13-7 13.7% 81.9% 4.9% 77.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.2 3.0 1.0 2.5 80.9%
12-8 20.8% 66.9% 3.1% 63.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.2 4.8 3.7 0.1 6.9 65.9%
11-9 21.2% 47.5% 1.6% 45.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.5 4.7 0.1 11.2 46.6%
10-10 16.6% 30.8% 1.0% 29.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 0.2 11.5 30.1%
9-11 10.5% 9.5% 0.8% 8.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 9.5 8.8%
8-12 4.8% 2.7% 0.2% 2.5% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7 2.5%
7-13 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.6%
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 51.2% 2.7% 48.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.3 3.8 6.5 9.7 13.5 13.4 0.6 0.0 48.8 49.9%