North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#93
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#129
Pace62.5#332
Improvement-3.4#326

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#80
First Shot+2.1#116
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#77
Layup/Dunks+6.4#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#329
Freethrows+1.3#99
Improvement-0.4#202

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#108
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#210
Layups/Dunks-2.8#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#19
Freethrows-1.7#294
Improvement-3.0#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.6 11.6
.500 or above 32.1% 48.9% 22.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.1% 25.0% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.6% 4.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 7
Quad 23 - 64 - 13
Quad 34 - 48 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 338   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 96%     1 - 0 +16.8 +11.0 +3.8
  Nov 08, 2024 273   Presbyterian W 81-72 91%     2 - 0 -0.1 +6.2 -6.0
  Nov 13, 2024 292   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 93%     3 - 0 +1.7 +2.3 -0.7
  Nov 18, 2024 198   Colgate W 72-49 84%     4 - 0 +18.6 -4.3 +22.3
  Nov 22, 2024 189   William & Mary W 84-61 83%     5 - 0 +19.0 -0.1 +17.5
  Nov 28, 2024 10   Purdue L 61-71 14%     5 - 1 +7.6 +6.6 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2024 44   BYU L 61-72 30%     5 - 2 +0.4 -2.4 +1.9
  Dec 04, 2024 38   Texas L 59-63 38%     5 - 3 +5.3 +1.4 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 58   Florida St. W 84-74 OT 47%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +16.8 +16.1 +0.8
  Dec 10, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 66-56 98%     7 - 3 -9.8 -5.7 -3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 60-75 7%     7 - 4 +7.3 +8.0 -2.7
  Dec 22, 2024 294   Rider W 89-63 93%     8 - 4 +15.6 +15.3 +1.5
  Dec 31, 2024 107   @ Virginia L 67-70 49%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +3.2 +13.4 -10.8
  Jan 04, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest L 59-77 28%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -5.9 +0.2 -7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 77   Notre Dame W 66-65 56%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +5.5 +3.8 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2025 26   North Carolina L 61-63 32%     9 - 7 2 - 3 +9.0 +0.4 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2025 137   @ Virginia Tech L 76-79 56%     9 - 8 2 - 4 +1.4 +12.9 -11.8
  Jan 18, 2025 118   California L 62-65 72%     9 - 9 2 - 5 -3.0 -4.4 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 37   SMU L 73-76 37%    
  Jan 27, 2025 1   @ Duke L 59-79 2%    
  Feb 01, 2025 30   Clemson L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 05, 2025 118   @ California W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 87   @ Stanford L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 27   Louisville L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 195   Boston College W 75-65 85%    
  Feb 19, 2025 26   @ North Carolina L 69-79 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 59   Wake Forest L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 103   @ Syracuse L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 104   @ Georgia Tech L 71-72 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 40   Pittsburgh L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 155   @ Miami (FL) W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.2 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.5 3.8 3.4 0.3 8.0 9th
10th 0.5 3.9 5.9 1.3 0.1 11.6 10th
11th 0.1 2.6 7.5 3.3 0.2 13.6 11th
12th 1.0 6.4 5.1 0.5 0.0 12.9 12th
13th 0.3 4.4 7.2 1.5 0.0 13.4 13th
14th 0.0 1.9 6.9 3.0 0.2 12.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 15th
16th 0.3 2.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.4 16th
17th 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.5 17th
18th 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.0 18th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.6 10.3 16.3 19.9 18.7 14.4 8.7 4.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 17.9% 3.6% 14.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 14.8%
12-8 1.1% 4.5% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.5%
11-9 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.8%
10-10 8.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 0.2%
9-11 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 14.4
8-12 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 18.7
7-13 19.9% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 19.9
6-14 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 16.3
5-15 10.3% 10.3
4-16 4.6% 4.6
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%