North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#79
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#95
Pace64.7#291
Improvement-1.5#279

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#83
First Shot+2.4#111
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#115
Layup/Dunks+7.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#344
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement-0.6#229

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot+4.1#69
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#235
Layups/Dunks-1.8#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#17
Freethrows-2.3#318
Improvement-1.0#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 6.9% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 5.8% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.5
.500 or above 71.2% 72.8% 45.6%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 57.7% 42.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.9% 3.6%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 1.1%
First Round5.2% 5.3% 2.4%
Second Round2.1% 2.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 25 - 66 - 13
Quad 34 - 110 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 334   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 96%     1 - 0 +17.6 +11.0 +4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 250   Presbyterian W 81-72 91%     2 - 0 +1.1 +6.9 -5.5
  Nov 13, 2024 274   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 92%     3 - 0 +3.0 +4.4 -1.5
  Nov 18, 2024 224   Colgate W 72-49 89%     4 - 0 +16.7 -5.8 +21.9
  Nov 22, 2024 225   William & Mary W 84-61 89%     5 - 0 +16.7 -0.6 +15.6
  Nov 28, 2024 22   Purdue L 61-71 24%     5 - 1 +4.3 +3.7 -1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 44   BYU L 61-72 35%     5 - 2 +0.0 -3.1 +2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 33   Texas L 59-63 41%     5 - 3 +5.3 +2.2 +2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 65   Florida St. W 84-74 OT 56%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +15.5 +15.7 -0.1
  Dec 10, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 66-56 99%     7 - 3 -11.1 -7.0 -3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 10   @ Kansas L 60-75 11%     7 - 4 +5.4 +5.5 -2.0
  Dec 22, 2024 288   Rider W 75-58 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 59-61 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 94   @ Wake Forest L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 81   Notre Dame W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 18   North Carolina L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 15, 2025 125   @ Virginia Tech W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 120   California W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 49   SMU L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 27, 2025 2   @ Duke L 60-77 6%    
  Feb 01, 2025 30   Clemson L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 05, 2025 120   @ California W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 87   @ Stanford L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 12, 2025 50   Louisville L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   Boston College W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 19, 2025 18   @ North Carolina L 71-82 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 94   Wake Forest W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 97   @ Syracuse L 74-75 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 110   @ Georgia Tech W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 05, 2025 32   Pittsburgh L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 91   @ Miami (FL) L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.8 0.9 0.0 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.9 0.1 5.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 11.2 13.5 14.3 13.2 11.0 8.1 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 41.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 16.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 97.5% 13.6% 84.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
17-3 0.5% 88.8% 8.1% 80.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 87.9%
16-4 1.4% 70.1% 8.2% 61.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 67.4%
15-5 2.9% 46.7% 6.3% 40.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 43.2%
14-6 5.3% 27.2% 4.0% 23.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.9 24.1%
13-7 8.1% 14.3% 2.1% 12.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 6.9 12.5%
12-8 11.0% 5.1% 1.4% 3.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.4 3.8%
11-9 13.2% 2.3% 0.8% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.8 1.5%
10-10 14.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.2 0.4%
9-11 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.0%
8-12 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 5.3% 5.3
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.6% 1.1% 5.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 93.4 5.6%