Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#36
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#42
Pace67.9#188
Improvement+1.5#120

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#30
First Shot+9.3#13
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#298
Layup/Dunks+2.5#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement+1.5#109

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#49
First Shot+3.8#67
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#58
Layups/Dunks+2.6#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#222
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.0% 7.2% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.3% 75.9% 54.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.2% 75.8% 53.9%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.0% 34.2% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.0% 10.4% 17.1%
First Round61.4% 71.3% 46.0%
Second Round29.2% 34.7% 20.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 9.4% 5.1%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.7% 1.7%
Final Four0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 11
Quad 24 - 310 - 13
Quad 32 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 33   Ohio St. L 72-80 46%     0 - 1 +5.7 +5.2 +0.5
  Nov 08, 2024 295   Houston Christian W 90-59 97%     1 - 1 +21.0 +15.6 +6.7
  Nov 12, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +28.7 +15.8 +8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.9%    3 - 1 +15.1 +10.3 +9.0
  Nov 21, 2024 108   Syracuse W 70-66 81%     4 - 1 +7.5 +0.7 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 78   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 70%     5 - 1 +16.3 +0.9 +15.7
  Nov 29, 2024 303   Delaware St. W 90-68 97%     6 - 1 +11.4 +6.9 +3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 103   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 72%     7 - 1 +10.8 +5.8 +5.8
  Dec 08, 2024 32   Connecticut L 65-76 55%     7 - 2 +0.6 +2.5 -3.2
  Dec 12, 2024 146   New Mexico St. W 91-67 91%     8 - 2 +22.3 +20.9 +1.5
  Dec 15, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 121-57 99.6%    9 - 2 +41.7 +26.7 +9.7
  Dec 19, 2024 353   New Orleans W 98-62 99%     10 - 2 +20.3 +17.2 +3.2
  Dec 29, 2024 272   Northwestern St. W 77-53 97%     11 - 2 +15.2 +16.4 +3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 20   @ Texas A&M L 60-80 29%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -1.5 +0.0 -2.0
  Jan 07, 2025 1   Auburn L 82-87 22%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +16.0 +15.5 +0.6
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Tennessee L 70-74 33%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +13.4 +18.2 -5.4
  Jan 15, 2025 50   @ Oklahoma W 77-73 47%     12 - 5 1 - 3 +17.4 +5.8 +11.4
  Jan 18, 2025 4   @ Florida L 60-84 13%     12 - 6 1 - 4 +0.8 -1.6 +2.2
  Jan 21, 2025 15   Missouri W 61-53 41%     13 - 6 2 - 4 +23.1 +1.0 +23.3
  Jan 25, 2025 20   Texas A&M W 70-69 47%     14 - 6 3 - 4 +14.5 +15.8 -1.2
  Jan 29, 2025 25   @ Mississippi L 69-72 33%     14 - 7 3 - 5 +14.4 +9.3 +4.9
  Feb 01, 2025 72   @ LSU W 89-58 59%     15 - 7 4 - 5 +41.4 +26.1 +16.6
  Feb 05, 2025 35   Arkansas L 70-78 60%     15 - 8 4 - 6 +2.2 +1.0 +1.6
  Feb 08, 2025 53   @ Vanderbilt L 78-86 48%     15 - 9 4 - 7 +5.2 +9.9 -4.7
  Feb 11, 2025 6   Alabama L 80-103 34%     15 - 10 4 - 8 -6.1 +9.6 -15.1
  Feb 15, 2025 17   Kentucky W 82-78 44%     16 - 10 5 - 8 +18.4 +9.0 +9.2
  Feb 22, 2025 84   @ South Carolina W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 35   @ Arkansas L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 44   Georgia W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 50   Oklahoma W 77-73 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 2.2 4.0 7th
8th 1.1 6.3 1.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.3 7.9 7.8 0.1 16.1 9th
10th 0.4 13.0 20.9 2.9 37.2 10th
11th 0.0 4.2 13.3 2.5 0.0 20.0 11th
12th 0.3 5.9 2.0 0.0 8.3 12th
13th 1.3 2.5 0.1 3.9 13th
14th 1.0 0.2 1.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.7 13.2 28.7 32.5 18.7 4.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 4.3% 99.5% 1.2% 98.4% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.5%
9-9 18.7% 96.1% 0.9% 95.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.1 5.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.7 96.1%
8-10 32.5% 82.9% 0.5% 82.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.3 8.3 9.1 3.4 0.0 5.5 82.9%
7-11 28.7% 53.5% 0.2% 53.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.5 7.9 0.6 13.3 53.4%
6-12 13.2% 20.6% 20.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 0.5 10.5 20.6%
5-13 2.7% 3.4% 3.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 3.4%
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.3% 0.4% 66.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.4 6.8 11.6 14.3 15.3 13.2 1.1 32.7 67.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 5.2 7.5 25.0 27.5 25.0 12.5 2.5
Lose Out 1.6%