Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#15
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#13
Pace77.3#20
Improvement-3.5#328

Offense
Total Offense+13.0#2
First Shot+13.7#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#232
Layup/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#42
Freethrows+2.9#34
Improvement+1.0#117

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#81
First Shot+1.4#128
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#31
Layups/Dunks+4.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#51
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement-4.5#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 7.5% 10.1% 3.5%
Top 2 Seed 25.8% 32.6% 15.1%
Top 4 Seed 72.4% 80.4% 59.9%
Top 6 Seed 93.0% 96.6% 87.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.9% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.9% 98.9%
Average Seed 3.7 3.3 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 92.3% 74.5%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.8% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 1.2%
First Round99.3% 99.8% 98.4%
Second Round87.1% 90.0% 82.5%
Sweet Sixteen50.8% 54.4% 45.1%
Elite Eight23.3% 26.0% 19.1%
Final Four10.2% 11.4% 8.3%
Championship Game4.4% 5.1% 3.4%
National Champion1.8% 2.1% 1.3%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 88 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 211 - 10
Quad 23 - 114 - 10
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 177   Wright St. W 103-62 96%     1 - 0 +37.5 +19.7 +15.4
  Nov 09, 2024 265   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +19.3 +15.4 +0.8
  Nov 12, 2024 1   Duke W 77-72 25%     3 - 0 +28.8 +11.1 +17.4
  Nov 19, 2024 91   Lipscomb W 97-68 89%     4 - 0 +32.4 +23.8 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 108-59 98%     5 - 0 +39.7 +18.4 +14.3
  Nov 26, 2024 135   Western Kentucky W 87-68 94%     6 - 0 +18.0 +8.1 +8.0
  Nov 29, 2024 280   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +19.3 +15.4 +0.6
  Dec 03, 2024 30   @ Clemson L 66-70 53%     7 - 1 +11.9 +2.8 +8.9
  Dec 07, 2024 14   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 50%     8 - 1 +17.7 +17.0 +0.7
  Dec 11, 2024 198   Colgate W 78-67 96%     9 - 1 +6.6 +7.3 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 27   Louisville W 93-85 71%     10 - 1 +19.0 +20.8 -2.2
  Dec 21, 2024 36   Ohio St. L 65-85 65%     10 - 2 -7.4 +0.8 -9.0
  Dec 31, 2024 212   Brown W 88-54 97%     11 - 2 +28.5 +16.2 +13.7
  Jan 04, 2025 5   Florida W 106-100 46%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +23.7 +38.1 -14.5
  Jan 07, 2025 34   @ Georgia L 69-82 54%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +2.5 +1.8 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 23   @ Mississippi St. W 95-90 45%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +22.9 +24.1 -1.6
  Jan 14, 2025 21   Texas A&M W 81-69 65%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +24.6 +13.3 +11.0
  Jan 18, 2025 7   Alabama L 97-102 50%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +11.7 +19.5 -7.3
  Jan 25, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt W 87-84 61%    
  Jan 28, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 46   Arkansas W 87-79 79%    
  Feb 04, 2025 19   @ Mississippi L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 82   South Carolina W 84-71 89%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Tennessee W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 38   @ Texas W 83-81 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 48   Vanderbilt W 90-81 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 90-96 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 45   @ Oklahoma W 85-82 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   Auburn L 85-89 37%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   LSU W 88-77 85%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   @ Missouri W 84-83 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.9 3.6 0.3 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 5.6 6.1 0.8 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 7.2 1.8 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.1 4.3 0.2 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.9 6.2 1.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.2 2.2 0.1 9.8 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 3.4 0.2 7.2 9th
10th 1.3 2.8 0.6 4.7 10th
11th 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 4.1 8.8 15.5 19.2 19.6 15.9 9.5 4.1 1.4 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 91.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 68.6% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-4 36.1% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 6.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 1.6 2.0 1.8 0.3 100.0%
13-5 9.5% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.0 2.2 5.1 2.0 0.3 100.0%
12-6 15.9% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 2.6 1.5 5.9 6.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.6% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 3.1 0.6 3.8 8.7 5.3 1.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 19.2% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 3.8 0.1 1.1 6.5 6.9 4.0 0.7 0.0 100.0%
9-9 15.5% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 4.5 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.9 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
8-10 8.8% 99.9% 1.4% 98.5% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.9%
7-11 4.1% 99.0% 1.0% 98.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.0%
6-12 1.3% 92.2% 92.2% 9.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 92.2%
5-13 0.5% 44.4% 44.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 44.4%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 5.7% 93.8% 3.7 7.5 18.3 26.6 20.1 14.1 6.5 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.5 99.5%