Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#220
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#246
Pace69.0#154
Improvement-4.7#339

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#152
First Shot+5.6#49
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#361
Layup/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#74
Freethrows-2.1#305
Improvement-2.7#304

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#297
First Shot-3.7#296
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks-3.6#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#166
Freethrows+1.6#79
Improvement-2.0#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 1.8% 3.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 1.4% 3.4%
First Round3.3% 4.2% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 410 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 62-103 3%     0 - 1 -21.5 -9.1 -10.0
  Nov 09, 2024 171   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 30%     1 - 1 +15.1 +6.9 +7.9
  Nov 13, 2024 221   @ Toledo L 77-86 40%     1 - 2 -9.7 -2.4 -7.0
  Nov 21, 2024 162   Princeton W 80-62 38%     2 - 2 +17.9 +11.6 +7.3
  Nov 22, 2024 94   Bradley L 74-77 21%     2 - 3 +2.1 +13.3 -11.6
  Nov 24, 2024 176   South Florida L 72-73 41%     2 - 4 -1.9 +1.3 -3.2
  Nov 30, 2024 294   Air Force W 70-57 74%     3 - 4 +3.1 +1.4 +3.3
  Dec 05, 2024 198   @ Oakland L 64-66 36%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -1.5 -0.4 -1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 334   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 69%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -0.3 +9.2 -9.1
  Dec 11, 2024 190   Marshall W 88-79 54%     5 - 5 +4.8 +6.8 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 186   Youngstown St. L 70-80 53%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -14.1 -2.9 -11.3
  Dec 21, 2024 291   @ Eastern Michigan L 82-86 55%     5 - 7 -8.6 +7.1 -15.7
  Dec 29, 2024 170   @ Cleveland St. L 64-78 30%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -11.9 -0.7 -12.3
  Jan 02, 2025 337   Green Bay W 74-51 84%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +9.0 -5.7 +14.9
  Jan 09, 2025 198   Oakland W 66-62 56%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -0.6 -2.6 +2.4
  Jan 12, 2025 173   @ Robert Morris L 72-75 31%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -1.0 -1.0 +0.1
  Jan 15, 2025 153   Purdue Fort Wayne L 113-120 2OT 45%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -8.9 +11.1 -18.5
  Jan 18, 2025 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 78-70 45%     8 - 10 4 - 5 +6.1 +5.6 +0.6
  Jan 22, 2025 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 79-95 41%     8 - 11 4 - 6 -16.8 +4.8 -21.6
  Jan 25, 2025 334   Detroit Mercy W 67-50 83%     9 - 11 5 - 6 +3.6 -1.4 +7.2
  Jan 30, 2025 186   @ Youngstown St. L 86-88 34%     9 - 12 5 - 7 -1.0 +7.7 -8.5
  Feb 02, 2025 173   Robert Morris W 66-64 50%     10 - 12 6 - 7 -1.1 -2.4 +1.4
  Feb 05, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 64-87 27%     10 - 13 6 - 8 -19.9 -13.2 -5.2
  Feb 08, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 91-73 81%     11 - 13 7 - 8 +5.4 +13.6 -6.9
  Feb 14, 2025 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 80-88 OT 24%     11 - 14 7 - 9 -3.7 +6.8 -10.4
  Feb 16, 2025 337   @ Green Bay L 68-79 71%     11 - 15 7 - 10 -19.9 -13.2 -6.1
  Feb 21, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky L 76-80 64%     11 - 16 7 - 11 -11.0 +4.2 -15.4
  Feb 27, 2025 170   Cleveland St. L 71-72 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 79-75 64%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 1.5 1.5 6th
7th 4.2 16.0 20.3 7th
8th 17.9 43.4 15.8 77.0 8th
9th 1.2 1.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 19.1 47.6 33.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 33.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.4 1.1 0.7 31.5
8-12 47.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9 45.8
7-13 19.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 18.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.7 1.1 3.2 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 15.4 61.2 38.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%
Lose Out 5.8%