Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#133
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#152
Pace69.9#155
Improvement+0.7#138

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#82
First Shot+8.3#15
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#360
Layup/Dunks+0.2#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#16
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#46
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+1.5#70

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#239
First Shot-2.6#264
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#153
Layups/Dunks-3.9#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#71
Freethrows+1.4#90
Improvement-0.8#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 24.6% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 93.8% 96.2% 87.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 96.7% 88.0%
Conference Champion 29.4% 34.7% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round22.9% 24.6% 18.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.2% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   @ Kentucky L 62-103 5%     0 - 1 -20.6 -7.3 -11.0
  Nov 09, 2024 195   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 50%     1 - 1 +14.4 +8.5 +5.7
  Nov 13, 2024 206   @ Toledo L 77-86 53%     1 - 2 -8.3 -1.7 -6.3
  Nov 21, 2024 119   Princeton W 80-62 45%     2 - 2 +20.8 +11.1 +10.7
  Nov 22, 2024 76   Bradley L 74-77 29%     2 - 3 +4.1 +12.3 -8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 145   South Florida L 72-73 53%     2 - 4 -0.3 +0.5 -0.8
  Nov 30, 2024 267   Air Force W 70-57 83%     3 - 4 +4.3 +1.3 +4.5
  Dec 05, 2024 166   @ Oakland L 64-66 46%     3 - 5 0 - 1 +0.5 +2.8 -2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 320   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 76%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +2.2 +8.7 -6.1
  Dec 11, 2024 186   Marshall W 88-79 71%     5 - 5 +4.7 +7.4 -3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 211   Youngstown St. W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-73 75%    
  Dec 29, 2024 241   @ Cleveland St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 02, 2025 331   Green Bay W 87-72 92%    
  Jan 09, 2025 166   Oakland W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 12, 2025 259   @ Robert Morris W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 15, 2025 152   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-80 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-78 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 320   Detroit Mercy W 81-68 89%    
  Jan 30, 2025 211   @ Youngstown St. W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 02, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 05, 2025 152   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-83 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 353   IU Indianapolis W 84-67 94%    
  Feb 14, 2025 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 16, 2025 331   @ Green Bay W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 21, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 241   Cleveland St. W 77-68 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 353   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-70 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.9 9.0 6.9 3.1 0.7 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 8.3 6.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.2 4.7 1.0 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.4 8.3 12.3 15.0 16.2 14.8 11.6 7.2 3.1 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 99.6% 3.1    3.0 0.1
17-3 94.9% 6.9    6.0 0.9 0.0
16-4 78.0% 9.0    6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 46.6% 6.9    2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.9% 2.6    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 19.0 8.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 51.8% 51.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3
18-2 3.1% 43.2% 43.2% 12.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8
17-3 7.2% 41.2% 41.2% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.3
16-4 11.6% 35.1% 35.1% 13.3 0.4 2.1 1.4 0.2 7.5
15-5 14.8% 29.3% 29.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 10.4
14-6 16.2% 23.6% 23.6% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.0 12.4
13-7 15.0% 18.9% 18.9% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 12.2
12-8 12.3% 14.5% 14.5% 14.7 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 10.5
11-9 8.3% 10.6% 10.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 7.5
10-10 5.4% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.0
9-11 3.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
8-12 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.5
7-13 0.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.6 8.3 4.8 0.7 77.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.4 2.1 2.7 6.2 34.9 52.1 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%