Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#149
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#102
Pace72.1#103
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#251
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 17.2% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 80.3% 84.6% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 85.6% 75.0%
Conference Champion 20.3% 22.0% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 2.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round15.9% 17.2% 11.0%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Away) - 80.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 412 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   @ Troy L 74-84 31%     0 - 1 -4.0 +2.0 -5.3
  Nov 09, 2024 200   @ Marshall W 90-80 51%     1 - 1 +10.7 +10.9 -0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 189   Wright St. W 86-77 70%     2 - 1 +4.6 +5.4 -1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 341   @ Detroit Mercy W 81-72 80%    
  Nov 21, 2024 322   Stetson W 81-71 83%    
  Nov 30, 2024 186   Oakland W 77-72 69%    
  Dec 14, 2024 185   @ Youngstown St. L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 18, 2024 2   @ Houston L 60-82 3%    
  Dec 29, 2024 15   @ Purdue L 70-86 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 311   @ Western Michigan W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 07, 2025 298   Eastern Michigan W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 11, 2025 201   Central Michigan W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 14, 2025 135   @ Akron L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 224   @ Ball St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 122   Kent St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 24, 2025 270   @ Bowling Green W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 28, 2025 158   @ Ohio L 78-81 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 294   Northern Illinois W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 04, 2025 315   Buffalo W 86-74 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 213   @ Miami (OH) W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 224   Ball St. W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 270   Bowling Green W 83-73 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 122   @ Kent St. L 72-77 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 315   @ Buffalo W 83-77 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 135   Akron W 78-75 58%    
  Mar 07, 2025 158   Ohio W 81-78 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.9 5.9 4.2 2.0 0.4 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.2 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.5 8.8 11.0 12.8 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.5 4.4 2.0 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.8% 2.0    2.0 0.1
16-2 94.7% 4.2    3.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 79.7% 5.9    4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 46.8% 4.9    2.2 2.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 18.6% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 13.1 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 59.1% 58.3% 0.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8%
17-1 2.0% 49.3% 49.1% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.3%
16-2 4.4% 39.9% 39.8% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 0.1%
15-3 7.5% 34.1% 34.1% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 4.9
14-4 10.5% 25.9% 25.9% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 7.8
13-5 12.6% 19.8% 19.8% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.1
12-6 13.5% 15.6% 15.6% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 11.4
11-7 12.8% 11.3% 11.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 11.4
10-8 11.0% 8.4% 8.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 10.1
9-9 8.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.2
8-10 6.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 6.3
7-11 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 3.0% 3.0
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 4.8 2.6 0.6 84.0 0.0%