Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#206
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#162
Pace72.5#84
Improvement-5.1#359

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#99
First Shot+1.6#131
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#108
Layup/Dunks+2.9#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#327
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement-0.3#201

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#331
First Shot-3.8#303
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#292
Layups/Dunks-3.4#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#264
Freethrows+2.5#44
Improvement-4.8#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 10.8% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 61.7% 83.7% 61.5%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 82.4% 72.2%
Conference Champion 8.4% 14.4% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round7.9% 10.8% 7.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 127   @ Troy L 74-84 24%     0 - 1 -4.8 +0.1 -4.3
  Nov 09, 2024 186   @ Marshall W 90-80 35%     1 - 1 +11.7 +12.0 -1.0
  Nov 13, 2024 133   Wright St. W 86-77 47%     2 - 1 +7.5 +7.1 +0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 320   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 63%     3 - 1 +9.2 +4.0 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 336   Stetson W 103-78 79%     4 - 1 +14.2 +18.5 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 173   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 44%     5 - 1 +1.2 +12.8 -11.5
  Nov 23, 2024 95   UC San Diego L 45-80 22%     5 - 2 -29.3 -23.3 -7.3
  Nov 30, 2024 166   Oakland L 52-85 55%     5 - 3 -36.5 -16.0 -23.9
  Dec 14, 2024 211   @ Youngstown St. L 87-93 39%     5 - 4 -5.4 +15.1 -20.4
  Dec 18, 2024 6   @ Houston L 59-83 1%    
  Dec 29, 2024 22   @ Purdue L 69-89 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 295   @ Western Michigan W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 83-74 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 14, 2025 146   @ Akron L 81-87 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 285   @ Ball St. W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 21, 2025 115   Kent St. L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 24, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 161   @ Ohio L 80-85 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 344   Northern Illinois W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 04, 2025 324   Buffalo W 85-75 81%    
  Feb 11, 2025 195   @ Miami (OH) L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 285   Ball St. W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 265   Bowling Green W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 115   @ Kent St. L 67-76 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 324   @ Buffalo W 82-78 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 146   Akron W 85-84 50%    
  Mar 07, 2025 161   Ohio W 83-82 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.7 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 6.3 2.8 0.3 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.8 7.6 10.8 13.1 14.8 13.7 12.0 8.8 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.5% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 79.1% 2.3    1.6 0.7 0.1
14-4 48.1% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 17.9% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 36.4% 36.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 35.5% 35.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.2% 26.7% 26.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 2.9% 24.5% 24.5% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.6% 17.9% 17.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.6
13-5 8.8% 15.2% 15.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 7.5
12-6 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 10.6
11-7 13.7% 8.6% 8.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 12.5
10-8 14.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 13.8
9-9 13.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 12.5
8-10 10.8% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.5
7-11 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.6
6-12 4.8% 4.8
5-13 2.7% 2.7
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.0 1.1 92.0 0.0%