Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#295
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#319
Pace67.8#215
Improvement+0.8#131

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#239
First Shot-4.9#312
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#52
Layup/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#345
Freethrows-1.8#282
Improvement+2.1#37

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#309
First Shot-4.9#329
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#154
Layups/Dunks-2.9#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#304
Freethrows+0.6#151
Improvement-1.3#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 5.7% 9.1% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 37.0% 27.3%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 8.9% 14.2%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   @ Coastal Carolina L 56-60 35%     0 - 1 -7.0 -11.9 +4.5
  Nov 11, 2024 74   @ Butler L 65-85 6%     0 - 2 -9.6 -3.7 -5.8
  Nov 15, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville L 60-79 56%     0 - 3 -27.6 -12.9 -15.5
  Nov 17, 2024 352   Canisius W 92-69 80%     1 - 3 +7.3 +11.3 -3.5
  Nov 20, 2024 228   South Dakota L 76-80 48%     1 - 4 -10.6 -7.4 -3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 211   @ Youngstown St. W 73-62 24%     2 - 4 +11.6 +6.5 +5.5
  Dec 03, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 69-77 3%     2 - 5 +6.8 +13.3 -8.0
  Dec 13, 2024 143   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 16%     2 - 6 -2.2 +3.2 -5.8
  Dec 15, 2024 131   @ North Dakota St. L 62-98 14%     2 - 7 -31.2 -9.9 -22.8
  Dec 20, 2024 227   Valparaiso L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 30, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 59-84 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 206   Toledo L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 265   Bowling Green W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 195   @ Miami (OH) L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 14, 2025 115   @ Kent St. L 60-73 11%    
  Jan 18, 2025 324   Buffalo W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 21, 2025 344   Northern Illinois W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan L 69-76 26%    
  Jan 28, 2025 285   @ Ball St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 161   @ Ohio L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 11, 2025 146   @ Akron L 73-84 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 195   Miami (OH) L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 18, 2025 324   @ Buffalo L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   Central Michigan L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 25, 2025 161   Ohio L 75-79 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 344   @ Northern Illinois W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 115   Kent St. L 63-70 26%    
  Mar 07, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green L 73-77 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.7 1.1 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.7 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.1 4.8 0.8 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 4.3 1.0 0.0 12.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.1 7.7 11.2 13.9 14.8 13.7 11.5 8.9 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 48.8% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 11.3% 11.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 12.1% 12.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.6% 9.1% 9.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-6 3.4% 7.3% 7.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.1
11-7 5.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.3
10-8 8.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.6
9-9 11.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.2
8-10 13.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.5
7-11 14.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.7
6-12 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 11.2% 11.2
4-14 7.7% 7.7
3-15 4.1% 4.1
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%