Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#160
Pace75.8#33
Improvement-1.6#283

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#118
First Shot+3.8#77
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#278
Layup/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#15
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement+0.0#168

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#217
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#307
Layups/Dunks-3.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement-1.7#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 21.9% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 86.9% 94.3% 82.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 93.2% 87.9%
Conference Champion 24.6% 30.2% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round18.3% 21.8% 16.3%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Neutral) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 414 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 111   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 28%     0 - 1 +1.7 -5.1 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 10%     0 - 2 -4.4 +2.9 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 179   Lamar W 79-72 67%     1 - 2 +3.0 +0.2 +2.3
  Nov 23, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 84%     2 - 2 -2.0 +19.8 -21.2
  Nov 24, 2024 275   Alabama St. W 97-78 82%     3 - 2 +10.0 +13.9 -4.8
  Dec 03, 2024 216   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 73%     4 - 2 +7.3 +15.7 -7.9
  Dec 15, 2024 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 48%     4 - 3 -17.9 -7.3 -7.2
  Dec 20, 2024 105   Yale L 78-82 36%    
  Dec 30, 2024 119   @ Princeton L 76-81 31%    
  Jan 03, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green W 82-79 62%    
  Jan 07, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 81-75 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 81-75 72%    
  Jan 14, 2025 206   Toledo W 87-81 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 161   Ohio W 84-80 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 324   @ Buffalo W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 195   Miami (OH) W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 28, 2025 344   @ Northern Illinois W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 115   @ Kent St. L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 285   Ball St. W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 11, 2025 295   Western Michigan W 84-73 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 344   Northern Illinois W 85-70 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 161   @ Ohio L 81-83 42%    
  Feb 25, 2025 285   @ Ball St. W 79-75 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 115   Kent St. W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 206   @ Toledo L 84-85 50%    
  Mar 07, 2025 324   Buffalo W 86-73 87%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.3 7.3 5.0 2.2 0.5 24.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.2 7.7 5.8 1.7 0.2 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.9 7.5 10.5 13.1 14.6 14.6 12.6 9.0 5.2 2.2 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.0
16-2 95.8% 5.0    4.3 0.7 0.0
15-3 80.9% 7.3    5.1 2.0 0.1
14-4 49.7% 6.3    3.0 2.6 0.7 0.0
13-5 19.7% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.6% 24.6 15.8 6.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 50.2% 50.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.2% 44.0% 44.0% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-2 5.2% 39.2% 39.2% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2
15-3 9.0% 33.2% 33.2% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 6.0
14-4 12.6% 26.2% 26.2% 13.6 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.3
13-5 14.6% 21.3% 21.3% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.0 11.5
12-6 14.6% 16.1% 16.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 12.2
11-7 13.1% 12.6% 12.6% 14.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 11.5
10-8 10.5% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 9.6
9-9 7.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 7.0
8-10 4.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.7
7-11 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.1 6.2 4.1 0.9 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 7.3 2.4 2.4 4.9 4.9 36.6 41.5