Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
112 Kent St. 29.8%   13   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 5 +3.3      -1.0 196 +4.3 69 62.0 343 +9.2 70 0.0 1
142 Akron 19.4%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +1.2      +1.9 125 -0.6 194 73.0 83 +1.0 149 0.0 1
154 Ohio 14.8%   3 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.3      +2.6 104 -2.2 249 71.3 118 -3.1 222 0.0 1
194 Central Michigan 10.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 11 - 7 -1.5      -2.7 245 +1.2 130 69.8 163 +2.0 137 0.0 1
197 Miami (OH) 9.3%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -1.6      -1.6 214 -0.1 175 69.4 174 +3.8 115 0.0 1
209 Toledo 8.0%   5 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -2.0      +2.1 118 -4.1 304 72.3 96 +2.1 136 0.0 1
265 Bowling Green 2.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.8      -2.6 242 -3.2 280 70.1 156 -7.9 291 0.0 1
268 Ball St. 2.6%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -5.9      -4.1 281 -1.8 227 66.5 251 -11.7 333 0.0 1
297 Eastern Michigan 1.3%   4 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -7.1      -3.6 269 -3.5 292 66.2 261 -3.0 219 0.0 1
302 Western Michigan 1.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.4      -3.7 271 -3.7 294 70.3 150 -9.9 317 0.0 1
330 Buffalo 0.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9.6      -4.1 280 -5.5 338 71.5 116 -4.0 232 0.0 1
337 Northern Illinois 0.3%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -10.5      -6.8 348 -3.8 296 70.8 128 -11.8 335 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 2.5 42.1 21.3 13.3 8.6 5.8 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0
Akron 3.4 26.5 19.4 14.9 11.6 9.3 6.9 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2
Ohio 4.1 16.1 17.0 15.0 13.3 11.3 9.1 7.1 4.9 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.2
Central Michigan 4.4 14.1 15.2 14.8 13.3 11.3 9.4 7.7 5.4 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.7
Miami (OH) 4.5 12.2 13.8 15.1 14.3 12.7 10.2 7.7 5.9 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.5
Toledo 5.1 8.5 11.3 12.4 13.2 12.3 11.7 10.2 7.8 5.7 3.6 2.5 0.8
Bowling Green 6.8 2.6 4.5 6.5 8.7 10.4 11.9 13.2 12.0 10.3 9.3 6.3 4.3
Ball St. 7.1 2.1 4.2 6.0 7.3 9.2 10.8 12.2 13.4 12.3 9.9 7.8 4.8
Eastern Michigan 8.3 0.8 2.0 3.3 4.5 5.9 8.0 10.4 12.4 14.9 14.5 13.4 9.9
Western Michigan 8.1 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.3 11.1 12.3 14.3 14.4 12.4 9.1
Buffalo 9.5 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.8 7.2 9.2 12.1 15.9 20.4 22.8
Northern Illinois 9.7 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.8 12.3 16.2 21.1 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 2.3 4.1 6.4 9.7 12.6 15.3 15.7 14.3 10.6 5.5 1.7
Akron 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 5.0 7.5 10.1 12.7 13.7 14.1 12.6 9.7 5.9 2.6 0.6
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.5 7.4 9.9 13.0 14.0 14.0 12.4 9.8 6.0 2.8 1.1 0.2
Central Michigan 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.7 8.0 10.5 12.8 13.7 13.2 11.3 8.3 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.3
Miami (OH) 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.4 11.4 14.0 14.5 13.5 10.7 8.0 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.1
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.8 5.3 7.8 11.0 13.2 13.6 13.3 11.6 9.0 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
Bowling Green 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 7.7 10.7 12.7 14.0 13.2 11.5 9.0 5.8 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.2 8.6 11.4 13.8 13.9 12.8 10.1 7.5 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.5 9.9 13.0 14.5 13.8 12.1 9.5 6.7 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 2.9 5.9 9.6 12.3 14.3 13.9 12.3 10.2 7.5 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Buffalo 5 - 13 1.1 4.3 8.3 12.3 14.6 14.9 13.3 11.1 8.0 5.3 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 1.3 4.8 9.0 13.2 15.5 15.5 13.5 10.7 6.8 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 42.1% 30.2 9.0 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Akron 26.5% 17.1 7.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Ohio 16.1% 9.4 4.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 14.1% 8.0 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 12.2% 6.6 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Toledo 8.5% 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 9.5 11.1 6.3 1.7 0.1 70.2 0.0%
Akron 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.1 5.4 3.4 0.8 80.6 0.0%
Ohio 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.8 4.1 1.3 85.2 0.0%
Central Michigan 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.0 2.4 0.8 89.5 0.0%
Miami (OH) 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.9 2.3 0.6 90.7 0.0%
Toledo 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.8 0.6 92.0 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 97.7 0.0%
Ball St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 97.4 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 98.7 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 98.6 0.0%
Buffalo 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 29.8% 0.0% 29.8% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 19.4% 0.2% 19.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 14.8% 0.5% 14.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 10.5% 0.4% 10.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 9.3% 0.1% 9.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 8.0% 0.2% 7.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 2.6% 1.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.9% 1.0 2.1 97.9 0.0
2nd Round 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0