Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
130 Kent St. 26.0%   14   8 - 4 1 - 1 19 - 9 12 - 6 +2.3      -2.9 244 +5.2 49 64.9 272 +3.9 113 -8.2 8
137 Akron 21.8%   7 - 5 2 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +1.3      +0.4 168 +0.9 148 75.1 42 +0.9 154 +10.2 3
154 Ohio 17.2%   7 - 6 2 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.6 161 -0.2 177 73.7 61 -1.1 182 +11.5 1
174 Miami (OH) 13.9%   8 - 4 2 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 -0.7      0.0 177 -0.6 192 69.9 151 +2.5 130 +10.9 2
209 Toledo 8.5%   7 - 6 2 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -2.3      +1.9 127 -4.2 300 75.0 46 +1.3 149 +8.0 4
229 Ball St. 4.9%   4 - 7 1 - 1 13 - 14 10 - 8 -4.0      -1.5 214 -2.4 243 66.9 236 -6.8 281 +0.8 5
240 Central Michigan 3.9%   2 - 8 0 - 2 11 - 15 9 - 9 -4.5      -4.7 308 +0.3 162 68.2 204 -4.3 240 -15.3 9
272 Bowling Green 2.2%   4 - 8 1 - 1 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.2      -2.6 239 -3.7 284 73.2 71 -7.9 296 -3.3 6
301 Western Michigan 0.7%   2 - 11 0 - 2 8 - 21 6 - 12 -7.9      -3.4 264 -4.5 310 68.8 186 -13.8 342 -22.8 12
303 Eastern Michigan 0.8%   6 - 7 1 - 1 12 - 17 7 - 11 -8.0      -3.1 251 -4.9 323 70.4 133 -3.7 228 -7.4 7
335 Buffalo 0.1%   3 - 9 0 - 2 8 - 20 5 - 13 -10.6      -5.0 315 -5.6 333 73.6 64 -7.7 295 -15.8 10
349 Northern Illinois 0.1%   1 - 10 0 - 2 5 - 22 4 - 14 -12.5      -8.5 355 -4.0 295 72.0 94 -14.4 346 -18.5 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 3.2 25.2 20.5 17.3 13.1 10.0 6.4 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Akron 2.6 36.2 21.9 15.6 10.6 7.2 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 3.2 26.2 20.3 16.5 13.3 9.5 6.7 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 3.2 23.8 20.7 17.3 13.4 10.5 6.9 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Toledo 4.5 10.4 12.1 14.0 14.9 14.9 12.7 9.9 6.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
Ball St. 5.5 4.3 7.5 10.8 13.3 14.6 15.0 13.1 10.4 6.1 3.2 1.4 0.4
Central Michigan 6.5 1.8 3.6 6.5 9.4 12.4 14.7 16.1 14.1 9.9 6.3 3.7 1.6
Bowling Green 6.8 1.3 3.4 5.5 8.1 10.9 14.4 16.4 16.1 11.7 7.4 3.5 1.4
Western Michigan 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 5.2 9.2 14.2 19.9 20.2 15.5 9.9
Eastern Michigan 8.5 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.6 7.2 11.0 15.7 20.0 19.2 12.0 5.1
Buffalo 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.8 8.1 13.4 19.0 26.2 23.5
Northern Illinois 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.6 5.2 9.3 16.3 27.7 36.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.3 6.1 10.1 14.0 17.2 17.7 14.7 9.2 4.1 1.0
Akron 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.9 11.6 16.0 17.5 16.4 13.3 7.8 3.2 0.7
Ohio 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.3 10.0 14.2 16.6 17.1 14.0 9.3 4.9 1.7 0.3
Miami (OH) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.5 6.4 10.8 14.4 16.6 16.8 13.7 9.0 4.4 1.6 0.2
Toledo 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.2 8.6 13.2 15.8 16.7 14.4 10.9 6.6 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
Ball St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 5.0 8.9 12.5 15.5 16.3 14.9 11.2 6.8 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
Central Michigan 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.8 12.7 15.5 16.0 14.1 10.9 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Bowling Green 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 6.2 10.2 14.4 16.4 16.1 13.2 9.2 5.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 0.3 1.1 3.9 8.0 13.3 16.3 17.7 15.4 11.2 6.8 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.4 2.1 5.9 10.7 15.2 17.3 16.3 13.1 9.0 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 5 - 13 1.4 5.3 10.5 15.1 17.8 16.7 13.1 9.6 5.6 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 4 - 14 2.6 8.9 15.3 18.8 19.4 15.0 9.5 5.8 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 25.2% 14.8 7.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 36.2% 23.5 9.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 26.2% 16.0 7.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 23.8% 13.7 7.3 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Toledo 10.4% 5.2 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 4.3% 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 1.8% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 1.3% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 26.0% 26.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.4 3.7 9.5 9.3 2.9 0.2 74.0 0.0%
Akron 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.7 8.6 5.0 0.8 78.2 0.0%
Ohio 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.5 6.7 5.0 1.2 82.8 0.0%
Miami (OH) 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.1 3.5 0.5 86.1 0.0%
Toledo 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.6 1.1 91.6 0.0%
Ball St. 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.3 95.1 0.0%
Central Michigan 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.6 96.1 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 97.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%
Buffalo 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 26.0% 0.0% 26.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 21.8% 0.1% 21.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 17.2% 0.3% 17.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 13.9% 0.1% 13.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 8.5% 0.3% 8.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.9% 1.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 3.9% 1.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.6% 1.0 2.4 97.6
2nd Round 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0