Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
102 Akron 40.4%   14   19 - 5 13 - 0 23 - 6 17 - 1 +4.3      +2.7 97 +1.6 129 77.7 13 +5.9 87 +12.8 1
137 Kent St. 17.5%   16 - 9 8 - 6 19 - 10 11 - 7 +1.3      -0.6 195 +1.9 119 65.0 265 +1.4 146 -2.9 5
171 Miami (OH) 16.5%   18 - 7 11 - 3 21 - 8 14 - 4 -0.5      +0.6 162 -1.0 200 71.1 98 +3.0 123 +3.6 2
172 Ohio 12.9%   13 - 12 8 - 5 16 - 14 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.8 155 -1.3 211 74.4 44 -2.3 205 -1.0 3
215 Central Michigan 2.7%   7 - 15 4 - 9 10 - 17 7 - 11 -2.7      -1.0 203 -1.7 222 67.5 196 -6.6 282 -9.6 10
221 Toledo 5.9%   15 - 11 9 - 5 17 - 13 11 - 7 -3.2      +2.4 105 -5.6 329 71.3 92 0.0 166 -1.2 4
261 Ball St. 1.9%   10 - 13 6 - 7 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.5      -0.4 186 -5.1 320 66.1 234 -6.5 279 -6.0 8
291 Eastern Michigan 0.9%   12 - 13 6 - 7 14 - 16 8 - 10 -7.1      -2.5 242 -4.6 312 69.2 148 -3.8 226 -4.7 6
301 Bowling Green 0.6%   9 - 16 5 - 9 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7.8      -4.3 292 -3.6 282 71.5 87 -8.4 302 -8.1 9
302 Western Michigan 0.8%   8 - 17 6 - 7 10 - 20 8 - 10 -7.9      -4.0 281 -3.9 293 69.6 133 -8.6 305 -5.5 7
341 Northern Illinois 0.0%   2 - 21 1 - 12 4 - 24 3 - 15 -11.8      -8.1 351 -3.7 284 71.9 77 -16.9 357 -18.4 12
352 Buffalo 0.0%   6 - 18 3 - 10 7 - 22 4 - 14 -13.1      -8.4 354 -4.7 315 75.3 32 -10.2 323 -11.7 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Akron 1.0 99.5 0.6
Kent St. 3.9 0.5 36.7 37.5 20.5 3.6 0.9 0.2
Miami (OH) 2.0 3.6 95.3 1.1 0.1
Ohio 3.6 0.0 5.5 50.8 24.2 15.7 2.8 0.8 0.2
Central Michigan 7.8 0.1 3.1 19.9 21.4 18.8 21.7 14.5 0.5 0.0
Toledo 3.8 2.1 46.9 26.3 23.0 1.6 0.1
Ball St. 6.7 0.0 0.9 3.4 11.5 34.2 23.4 14.7 9.0 3.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7.1 0.7 3.3 8.6 24.7 25.2 18.2 12.3 7.0 0.0
Bowling Green 8.3 0.0 1.8 13.4 16.2 18.0 23.5 26.9 0.2
Western Michigan 7.1 1.1 4.1 8.9 22.6 22.4 19.0 14.0 7.9 0.0
Northern Illinois 11.7 0.2 0.8 29.8 69.2
Buffalo 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 86.7 9.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 17 - 1 0.1 1.8 10.2 29.4 37.8 20.7
Kent St. 11 - 7 0.9 9.2 31.4 44.7 13.7
Miami (OH) 14 - 4 0.3 4.7 24.3 47.1 23.6
Ohio 11 - 7 0.9 8.2 23.3 33.5 25.8 8.4
Central Michigan 7 - 11 0.3 3.4 14.8 32.7 35.0 13.9
Toledo 11 - 7 6.9 29.7 39.3 20.1 4.0
Ball St. 8 - 10 2.7 20.3 35.3 28.9 11.3 1.5
Eastern Michigan 8 - 10 7.4 25.7 36.0 23.3 7.0 0.7
Bowling Green 7 - 11 6.8 23.9 35.9 25.6 7.8
Western Michigan 8 - 10 9.3 27.7 32.0 21.9 8.1 1.0
Northern Illinois 3 - 15 13.7 35.0 33.7 14.1 3.2 0.3
Buffalo 4 - 14 46.1 37.6 13.7 2.4 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 99.5% 96.4 3.0 0.0
Kent St.
Miami (OH) 3.6% 0.6 3.0 0.0
Ohio 0.0% 0.0
Central Michigan
Toledo
Ball St.
Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green
Western Michigan
Northern Illinois
Buffalo


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 40.4% 40.4% 0.0% 14   0.5 11.4 20.2 7.9 0.4 59.6 0.0%
Kent St. 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.6 4.4 8.5 3.9 0.2 82.5 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.7 4.6 7.7 3.4 0.1 83.5 0.0%
Ohio 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.9 2.2 87.1 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 1.7 97.3 0.0%
Toledo 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.4 94.2 0.0%
Ball St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3 1.6 98.2 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.5 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Buffalo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 40.4% 0.0% 40.4% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 17.5% 0.0% 17.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.5% 0.0% 16.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 12.9% 0.4% 12.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.7% 1.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 5.9% 0.8% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 97.7
2nd Round 6.5% 0.1 93.6 6.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0