Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#293
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#254
Pace70.0#159
Improvement+1.0#70

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#295
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#268
Layup/Dunks-3.1#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#47
Freethrows-1.4#253
Improvement+0.7#86

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#261
First Shot-3.2#283
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#148
Layups/Dunks-3.4#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#118
Freethrows-1.0#241
Improvement+0.4#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 16.9% 23.5% 8.5%
.500 or above in Conference 31.9% 37.4% 25.0%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 11.4% 18.7%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 214   @ Georgia Southern L 65-80 24%     0 - 1 -14.6 -12.2 -1.5
  Nov 12, 2024 261   Monmouth W 79-66 55%     1 - 1 +4.9 -0.1 +4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 93   @ Bradley L 60-76 8%     1 - 2 -7.4 -5.9 -2.3
  Nov 20, 2024 263   Elon W 74-73 55%    
  Nov 23, 2024 111   @ DePaul L 66-80 10%    
  Nov 27, 2024 276   @ Valparaiso L 70-74 36%    
  Nov 29, 2024 315   @ Eastern Illinois L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 07, 2024 118   @ Northern Iowa L 65-78 11%    
  Dec 18, 2024 172   @ Illinois St. L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 301   @ Eastern Michigan L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 07, 2025 123   Kent St. L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 156   @ Ohio L 70-80 18%    
  Jan 14, 2025 228   Miami (OH) L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 202   Central Michigan L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 21, 2025 319   @ Western Michigan L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 246   Ball St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 28, 2025 139   Akron L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 138   @ Toledo L 70-81 16%    
  Feb 04, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 330   Buffalo W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 246   @ Ball St. L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 18, 2025 139   @ Akron L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 301   Eastern Michigan W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) L 68-75 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 319   Western Michigan W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 264   Bowling Green W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 07, 2025 202   @ Central Michigan L 65-73 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.9 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 3.8 0.9 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 8.9 12th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.9 8.4 11.5 12.8 12.8 12.0 10.5 8.1 5.7 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 87.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 70.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 17.4% 17.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 24.0% 24.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 11.8% 11.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.1% 8.8% 8.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-6 3.8% 8.1% 8.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.5
11-7 5.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.4
10-8 8.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.8
9-9 10.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.3
8-10 12.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-11 12.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-12 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-13 11.5% 11.5
4-14 8.4% 8.4
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 3.2% 3.2
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%