Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.0#346
Expected Predictive Rating-12.5#334
Pace71.6#105
Improvement-2.0#302

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#351
First Shot-2.2#239
After Offensive Rebound-5.3#362
Layup/Dunks-8.5#361
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#49
Freethrows+2.4#59
Improvement-1.3#285

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#314
First Shot-2.9#279
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#299
Layups/Dunks-1.8#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows-2.7#330
Improvement-0.7#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 13.5% 3.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.5% 23.4% 51.4%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 28.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 106 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 234   @ Georgia Southern L 65-80 15%     0 - 1 -15.8 -11.1 -3.8
  Nov 12, 2024 272   Monmouth W 79-66 38%     1 - 1 +4.0 +0.4 +3.4
  Nov 16, 2024 79   @ Bradley L 60-76 3%     1 - 2 -5.9 -6.5 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 179   Elon L 48-75 22%     1 - 3 -30.9 -25.0 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2024 103   @ DePaul L 52-98 4%     1 - 4 -38.0 -19.9 -15.9
  Nov 27, 2024 226   @ Valparaiso L 82-87 14%     1 - 5 -5.5 +2.6 -7.7
  Nov 29, 2024 327   @ Eastern Illinois L 59-72 30%     1 - 6 -19.4 -15.9 -3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 98   @ Northern Iowa L 57-101 4%     1 - 7 -35.5 -10.2 -27.5
  Dec 18, 2024 153   @ Illinois St. L 60-81 9%     1 - 8 -17.8 -13.0 -4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan L 69-75 28%    
  Jan 07, 2025 113   Kent St. L 60-72 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 69-84 8%    
  Jan 14, 2025 209   Miami (OH) L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 225   Central Michigan L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 21, 2025 296   @ Western Michigan L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 288   Ball St. L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 28, 2025 163   Akron L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 211   @ Toledo L 72-85 13%    
  Feb 04, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 11, 2025 330   Buffalo W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   @ Ball St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 18, 2025 163   @ Akron L 69-84 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 25, 2025 209   @ Miami (OH) L 65-78 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 296   Western Michigan L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 04, 2025 267   Bowling Green L 73-76 38%    
  Mar 07, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 65-77 15%    
Projected Record 6 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 3.1 0.3 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 16.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 5.5 8.6 5.4 1.0 0.1 22.6 11th
12th 1.6 5.3 9.2 8.8 4.6 1.0 0.0 30.6 12th
Total 1.6 5.5 11.1 14.9 16.9 15.7 12.7 9.4 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 25.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.3
8-10 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.9
7-11 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
6-12 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-13 15.7% 15.7
4-14 16.9% 16.9
3-15 14.9% 14.9
2-16 11.1% 11.1
1-17 5.5% 5.5
0-18 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%