Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#267
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#291
Pace67.6#212
Improvement+4.9#17

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#267
First Shot-2.9#265
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#235
Layup/Dunks-5.0#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement+0.8#130

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#249
First Shot-1.0#210
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#299
Layups/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#167
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement+4.1#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 47.9% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 47 - 810 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 2%     0 - 1 -4.1 -7.5 +4.1
  Nov 08, 2024 110   Temple L 74-103 19%     0 - 2 -25.8 -1.9 -22.5
  Nov 12, 2024 356   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 69%     0 - 3 -24.0 -12.3 -11.5
  Nov 15, 2024 66   @ Rutgers L 81-98 6%     0 - 4 -5.8 +13.1 -18.9
  Nov 18, 2024 138   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 17%     0 - 5 +0.4 -5.2 +5.6
  Nov 21, 2024 208   Youngstown St. L 62-72 36%     0 - 6 -12.3 -11.9 +0.0
  Nov 22, 2024 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 36%     0 - 7 -7.2 +1.1 -8.4
  Nov 23, 2024 273   Presbyterian L 61-71 52%     0 - 8 -16.4 -9.3 -8.2
  Nov 30, 2024 132   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 16%     1 - 8 +16.6 +4.3 +14.2
  Dec 04, 2024 296   @ Lehigh L 63-90 46%     1 - 9 -31.9 -10.8 -21.4
  Dec 10, 2024 122   @ Princeton L 67-71 14%     1 - 10 +1.4 +0.1 +1.0
  Dec 21, 2024 318   Fairfield W 88-74 71%     2 - 10 +2.2 +7.9 -5.6
  Dec 30, 2024 2   @ Auburn L 58-87 1%     2 - 11 -3.2 -4.5 +0.8
  Jan 02, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 78-56 72%     3 - 11 1 - 0 +10.0 +10.4 +3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 196   @ Delaware L 64-84 25%     3 - 12 1 - 1 -18.8 -9.2 -10.4
  Jan 09, 2025 141   UNC Wilmington L 55-64 32%     3 - 13 1 - 2 -10.2 -15.1 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 127   College of Charleston W 84-73 29%     4 - 13 2 - 2 +10.6 +10.6 -0.1
  Jan 16, 2025 323   @ N.C. A&T W 72-63 52%     5 - 13 3 - 2 +2.4 -1.8 +4.5
  Jan 18, 2025 252   @ Campbell L 58-81 36%     5 - 14 3 - 3 -25.4 -11.8 -14.4
  Jan 23, 2025 158   @ Elon L 65-74 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 189   @ William & Mary L 74-81 24%    
  Jan 30, 2025 193   Drexel L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 196   Delaware L 76-78 45%    
  Feb 06, 2025 256   Hampton W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 176   Towson L 63-66 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 176   @ Towson L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 59-67 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 200   Northeastern L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 158   Elon L 67-71 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 193   @ Drexel L 63-70 24%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.0 0.2 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.4 1.3 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.2 4.5 0.2 10.4 8th
9th 0.4 3.8 7.9 1.3 13.3 9th
10th 0.2 3.4 8.8 4.2 0.1 16.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.9 8.4 6.0 0.8 0.0 18.3 11th
12th 0.1 2.6 6.3 5.5 1.0 0.0 15.5 12th
13th 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.2 4.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.8 4.9 11.0 17.8 20.2 19.2 13.9 7.4 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 32.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.1
11-7 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 3.1
10-8 7.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.3
9-9 13.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.7
8-10 19.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.1
7-11 20.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.1
6-12 17.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.8
5-13 11.0% 11.0
4-14 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%