Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#254
Pace68.8#164
Improvement+6.5#7

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#232
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#218
Layup/Dunks-4.9#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#140
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement+3.6#34

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#255
First Shot-1.5#223
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#305
Layups/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#172
Freethrows-1.8#303
Improvement+2.9#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 100.0% 57.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 113 - 15
Quad 49 - 612 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 2%     0 - 1 -3.2 -6.5 +4.0
  Nov 08, 2024 155   Temple L 74-103 29%     0 - 2 -28.5 -4.7 -22.3
  Nov 12, 2024 341   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 65%     0 - 3 -22.3 -10.5 -11.6
  Nov 15, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 81-98 7%     0 - 4 -6.1 +12.5 -18.5
  Nov 18, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 16%     0 - 5 +1.4 -3.5 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 186   Youngstown St. L 62-72 36%     0 - 6 -11.5 -13.2 +2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 39%     0 - 7 -7.3 -0.4 -7.1
  Nov 23, 2024 270   Presbyterian L 61-71 52%     0 - 8 -15.7 -9.1 -7.7
  Nov 30, 2024 167   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 24%     1 - 8 +14.2 +4.6 +11.5
  Dec 04, 2024 279   @ Lehigh L 63-90 45%     1 - 9 -31.0 -9.5 -21.8
  Dec 10, 2024 162   @ Princeton L 67-71 23%     1 - 10 -1.5 +0.2 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 328   Fairfield W 88-74 76%     2 - 10 +1.2 +8.6 -7.3
  Dec 30, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 58-87 1%     2 - 11 -2.9 -3.0 -0.5
  Jan 02, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 78-56 74%     3 - 11 1 - 0 +10.1 +9.1 +4.3
  Jan 04, 2025 244   @ Delaware L 64-84 37%     3 - 12 1 - 1 -22.0 -11.1 -11.6
  Jan 09, 2025 116   UNC Wilmington L 55-64 30%     3 - 13 1 - 2 -8.7 -14.9 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 143   College of Charleston W 84-73 36%     4 - 13 2 - 2 +9.5 +9.9 -0.6
  Jan 16, 2025 316   @ N.C. A&T W 72-63 55%     5 - 13 3 - 2 +2.4 -0.6 +3.3
  Jan 18, 2025 183   @ Campbell L 58-81 26%     5 - 14 3 - 3 -21.7 -9.6 -12.9
  Jan 23, 2025 175   @ Elon L 71-83 25%     5 - 15 3 - 4 -10.3 -4.2 -5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 216   @ William & Mary L 73-78 32%     5 - 16 3 - 5 -5.4 -10.2 +5.3
  Jan 30, 2025 195   Drexel W 104-97 2OT 47%     6 - 16 4 - 5 +2.5 +17.0 -15.5
  Feb 01, 2025 244   Delaware W 92-83 57%     7 - 16 5 - 5 +2.0 +12.7 -10.7
  Feb 06, 2025 250   Hampton W 68-63 59%     8 - 16 6 - 5 -2.4 -4.7 +2.5
  Feb 08, 2025 157   Towson L 67-73 38%     8 - 17 6 - 6 -8.1 +2.4 -11.2
  Feb 13, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 79-69 56%     9 - 17 7 - 6 +3.1 +6.3 -2.5
  Feb 15, 2025 157   @ Towson L 54-80 22%     9 - 18 7 - 7 -23.0 -11.6 -13.1
  Feb 20, 2025 227   @ Hofstra W 68-62 34%     10 - 18 8 - 7 +5.0 +9.2 -3.3
  Feb 24, 2025 212   Northeastern L 72-73 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 175   Elon L 70-72 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 195   @ Drexel L 64-70 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.4 2.4 2.8 4th
5th 7.0 3.2 10.1 5th
6th 7.5 20.2 1.3 29.0 6th
7th 1.1 29.4 2.6 33.1 7th
8th 10.6 5.1 15.8 8th
9th 8.8 0.2 9.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 20.9 42.2 30.2 6.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 6.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.6
10-8 30.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 29.6
9-9 42.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.4 41.8
8-10 20.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 13.4%