Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#152
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#137
Pace59.5#357
Improvement+3.7#38

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#203
First Shot-7.5#347
After Offensive Rebound+6.4#2
Layup/Dunks-3.4#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#247
Freethrows-2.8#330
Improvement+2.9#35

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#122
First Shot+0.0#179
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#53
Layups/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#262
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+0.8#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 16.8% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 98.1% 99.3% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 62.5% 70.7% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.7% 16.8% 13.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 8%     0 - 1 +9.4 +9.4 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 78   @ South Carolina L 54-80 20%     0 - 2 -16.1 -10.9 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2024 142   James Madison W 67-63 58%     1 - 2 +2.8 -1.9 +5.0
  Nov 20, 2024 205   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 53%     2 - 2 +6.1 +4.1 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2024 332   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 80%     3 - 2 -4.3 -13.0 +8.9
  Nov 28, 2024 132   Kent St. L 54-65 47%     3 - 3 -9.3 -5.0 -6.1
  Nov 29, 2024 166   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 53%     3 - 4 -4.0 -6.4 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 65   UC Irvine L 60-67 23%     3 - 5 +1.6 -1.0 +2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 243   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-84 78%     3 - 6 -20.4 -12.4 -7.4
  Dec 14, 2024 129   Duquesne L 47-65 46%     3 - 7 -16.1 -10.2 -11.0
  Dec 17, 2024 197   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 50%     3 - 8 -0.1 +3.0 -3.2
  Dec 22, 2024 151   Bryant W 70-65 60%     4 - 8 +3.3 -3.1 +6.5
  Jan 02, 2025 114   @ UNC Wilmington W 65-61 OT 32%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +9.7 -3.6 +13.4
  Jan 04, 2025 118   @ College of Charleston L 69-77 34%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -3.0 +0.0 -3.2
  Jan 09, 2025 200   Northeastern W 80-73 69%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +2.7 +16.1 -12.5
  Jan 11, 2025 196   @ Drexel W 93-82 OT 49%     7 - 9 3 - 1 +11.9 +16.9 -5.6
  Jan 16, 2025 156   Hofstra W 65-60 61%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +2.9 +6.5 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 317   Stony Brook W 53-49 88%     9 - 9 5 - 1 -7.9 -17.2 +10.1
  Jan 23, 2025 334   N.C. A&T W 83-67 90%     10 - 9 6 - 1 +2.6 +6.3 -3.0
  Jan 27, 2025 200   @ Northeastern W 75-65 50%     11 - 9 7 - 1 +10.7 +7.9 +3.5
  Jan 30, 2025 227   @ Delaware W 76-66 57%     12 - 9 8 - 1 +8.9 +2.5 +6.8
  Feb 01, 2025 196   Drexel W 64-59 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 317   @ Stony Brook W 69-61 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 263   @ Monmouth W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 227   Delaware W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   Monmouth W 70-61 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 183   @ Elon L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 198   @ Campbell W 63-62 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 218   William & Mary W 75-69 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 282   Hampton W 69-59 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.6 16.4 21.9 14.9 4.3 62.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 9.5 9.0 2.1 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.7 4.5 3.7 0.7 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.1 8.7 17.9 26.0 24.0 14.9 4.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.3    4.3
16-2 100.0% 14.9    13.7 1.2
15-3 91.2% 21.9    14.9 6.7 0.4
14-4 62.9% 16.4    6.7 7.8 1.8 0.1
13-5 25.7% 4.6    0.7 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.5% 62.5 40.4 17.5 3.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.3% 26.5% 26.5% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 3.2
16-2 14.9% 21.3% 21.3% 13.4 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.1 11.8
15-3 24.0% 17.3% 17.3% 13.9 0.0 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 19.9
14-4 26.0% 15.4% 15.4% 14.3 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.0 22.0
13-5 17.9% 12.2% 12.2% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 15.8
12-6 8.7% 10.1% 10.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 7.8
11-7 3.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.0
10-8 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.2% 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.7 4.0 0.5 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 12.7 2.6 36.5 52.2 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%