Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#160
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#149
Pace70.5#136
Improvement-3.6#347

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#229
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#137
Layup/Dunks+7.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#343
Freethrows-2.2#302
Improvement-3.7#359

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#119
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-0.6#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#96
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 14.2% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 90.2% 97.6% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 86.4% 78.4%
Conference Champion 12.2% 16.8% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.3% 14.2% 9.8%
Second Round0.7% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 76 - 9
Quad 414 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 256   @ Boston University W 80-72 58%     1 - 0 +5.8 +12.6 -6.2
  Nov 10, 2024 117   Princeton L 76-79 50%     1 - 1 -3.2 +0.3 -3.5
  Nov 13, 2024 231   Harvard W 78-56 73%     2 - 1 +15.3 +3.1 +12.0
  Nov 16, 2024 221   Central Connecticut St. W 80-62 61%     3 - 1 +15.0 +9.8 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 248   Florida International W 60-58 67%     4 - 1 -2.8 -8.0 +5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 59-55 43%     5 - 1 +5.7 -6.5 +12.6
  Nov 24, 2024 229   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-68 63%     5 - 2 -11.6 -7.7 -4.8
  Nov 30, 2024 184   @ Vermont L 64-68 42%     5 - 3 -2.2 -2.7 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2024 164   La Salle W 82-68 62%     6 - 3 +10.6 -0.7 +9.8
  Dec 08, 2024 223   Colgate W 78-75 72%     7 - 3 -3.2 +1.5 -4.7
  Dec 15, 2024 315   @ Old Dominion W 75-71 70%     8 - 3 -1.7 -1.8 +0.1
  Dec 18, 2024 191   @ Massachusetts L 72-77 43%     8 - 4 -3.3 -7.2 +4.3
  Dec 29, 2024 61   @ Northwestern L 60-72 12%    
  Jan 02, 2025 219   Delaware W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 151   Hofstra W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 09, 2025 213   @ Towson L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 307   @ Stony Brook W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 16, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 121   @ College of Charleston L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 23, 2025 146   Drexel W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 27, 2025 213   Towson W 66-61 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 266   @ Hampton W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 179   @ Elon L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 151   @ Hofstra L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 266   Hampton W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 13, 2025 295   Campbell W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 307   Stony Brook W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 20, 2025 121   College of Charleston W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   @ Monmouth W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 321   N.C. A&T W 83-71 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 222   @ William & Mary L 79-80 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 5.0 1.1 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.9 9.0 12.5 14.2 15.1 13.5 10.8 7.3 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.1% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.1% 1.6    1.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 83.7% 3.2    2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 56.0% 4.1    1.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.0% 2.3    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.7 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 37.5% 37.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 39.1% 39.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 29.7% 29.7% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-3 3.8% 25.6% 25.6% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8
14-4 7.3% 21.7% 21.7% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 5.7
13-5 10.8% 18.6% 18.6% 13.7 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.8
12-6 13.5% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 11.6
11-7 15.1% 9.8% 9.8% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 13.6
10-8 14.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.4
9-9 12.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.0
8-10 9.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.7
7-11 5.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.1 0.0 5.7
6-12 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.1 2.3 0.3 89.7 0.0%