Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.1 269
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 283
Pace 73.3 61
Improvement -3.5 319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #180 C+ D+ C- D+ B-
Defense D #325 D- C- C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 42 59% 143 +3.7 63
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 236 37% 197 -1.3 252
Three Pointers 38% 232 34% 181 -1.3 229
1st FG Attempt 1.04 139 +1.1 138
Second Chance 27.4% 268 1.02 191 0.28 255
Turnovers 17.6% 222
Freethrows 0.29 248 68% 308 0.19 274
Total Offense -0.7 180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 63% 307 -5.9 350
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 213 48% 364 -1.6 299
Three Pointers 36% 321 36% 255 +1.7 112
1st FG Attempt 1.13 342 -5.8 342
Second Chance 33.5% 300 0.99 125 0.33 238
Turnovers 17.6% 131
Freethrows 0.34 290 74% 281 0.25 299
Total Defense -5.4 325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 77 +0.6 283
Shot Type Accuracy +0.2 164 +5.0 345
Possession Length 16.7 114 16.6 67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 81 0.18 197
Improvement +3.2 #44 -6.7 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 50% 32% 60%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 94 - 14
Quad 45 - 89 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 275 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 63% +2  65% 0 - 1 D -10 F -13 F D F B- +3 B- D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 209 @Colgate W 68 - 65 27% -1  33% 1 - 1 C+ +3 D -5 D F A A- +8 B B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 153 @Harvard W 77 - 60 19% +9  73% 2 - 1 A +20 B +7 C C+ A A+ +14 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 224 Vermont L 74 - 85 51% -0  60% 2 - 2 F+ -17 D -5 D A F F -12 F B- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 221 @Princeton L 57 - 70 28% -10  0% 2 - 3 D- -13 F -15 F D F C+ +1 A- F A
 Sat, Nov 22 108 Duquesne W 93 - 86 17% +3  90% 3 - 3 B +11 C+ +3 A+ D- F B+ +7 D- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 63 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 6% -7  2% 3 - 4 C -2 C- -1 A+ F F C -0 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 321 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 54% -13  0% 3 - 5 F -24 F -17 F D+ F D- -8 F B D+
 Sun, Dec 7 294 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 67% +14  95% 4 - 5 B- +6 D- -7 C- C- D A+ +14 A+ A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 67 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 6% -7  11% 4 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 A B+ C+ F+ -10 F C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 116 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 13% -6  5% 4 - 7 C- -2 A +12 A+ D- B- F -15 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 215 @Elon L 91 - 103 28% -5  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 A- +10 A+ D D- F -21 F F B
 Wed, Dec 31 286 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 43% +4  90% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +7 A +13 B+ B- B D -6 C- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 192 @Campbell L 82 - 97 25% -8  3% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 C+ +3 C+ D+ B F -16 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 113 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 27% -1  36% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D -9 C- -1 B- D+ A D- -7 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 172 Towson L 78 - 87 41% -6  30% 5 - 11 1 - 4 D- -13 B- +5 B D A F -17 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 215 Elon W 85 - 78 50% +4  75% 6 - 11 2 - 4 C +1 D+ -3 D+ A+ C+ B- +4 D B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 208 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 27% -1  49% 6 - 12 2 - 5 D- -13 D- -7 C F F D -6 D- D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 213 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 49% -9  0% 6 - 13 2 - 6 F -21 C +1 D A+ A F -22 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 217 @Drexel L 78 - 83 28% -6  7% 6 - 14 2 - 7 D+ -5 B +6 B- B A F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 156 College of Charleston L 84 - 89 39% +2  66% 6 - 15 2 - 8 D -8 B+ +9 A C- A+ F -17 F+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 117 @Hofstra L 63 - 80 13% -10  0% 6 - 16 2 - 9 D -11 D- -7 A- F F+ D+ -5 D+ C- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 213 @Stony Brook L 55 - 69 28% -10  18% 6 - 17 2 - 10 D- -14 F -17 F B+ D B- +3 D B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 145 William & Mary L 85 - 89 34%
 Thu, Feb 19 217 Drexel L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 117 Hofstra L 74 - 80 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 145 @William & Mary L 82 - 92 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 248 @Hampton L 72 - 76 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 208 Monmouth L 75 - 76 49%
Totals 8 - 21 4 - 14 -6 C -1 C+ D+ C- D -5 D- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C- C C 44% 18% 38% B- C+ D+ C D+ C- C- D D+ D D F D+ D- 45% 19% 36% D+ D- D+ C+ C- C+ D+ D+ D
1.08 59% 37% 34% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .28 18% .29 68% .19 1.16 63% 48% 36% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.0 .33 18% .34 74% .21
Nov
3		 Boston University F D D F F 54% 15% 31% A- F C F+ D F A+ D A B- F+ F A+ B 38% 14% 48% D+ B- F+ B D+ B+ D- C D
1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29 1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24
Nov
7		 Colgate D B F F F+ 51% 12% 37% A- D D+ F F A A C A A- C+ F A+ B 41% 24% 35% D+ B D+ A+ B+ C D+ F D-
1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30 0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23
Nov
11		 Harvard B C F A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% C- C C B C+ A A+ F B+ A+ C- A+ B A+ 36% 19% 45% B- A D+ A B- A+ F C- F
1.16 57% 10% 45% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 12% .39 61% .24 0.90 60% 13% 32% -6 0 0.90 28% 0.8 .22 27% .49 83% .41
Nov
15		 Vermont D D+ F A+ D- 46% 27% 27% C D B- A+ A F B+ B- B+ F C+ B+ F F 55% 6% 39% F F B- B+ B- B+ B+ F B-
1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29 1.22 57% 33% 60% +15 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18
Nov
20		 Princeton F D F F F 52% 14% 34% B+ F B F D F B- F C- C+ A+ A- D+ A- 35% 27% 38% B+ A- F F F A F C- F
0.85 54% 29% 12% -15 +2 0.76 33% 0.8 .26 19% .33 61% .20 1.04 38% 30% 36% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.5 .50 22% .71 76% .54
Nov
22		 Duquesne C+ A+ A+ F A+ 53% 16% 31% A A+ C+ F D- F A+ A A+ B+ C F F D+ 71% 7% 22% F D- A+ C+ A+ A D+ B C
1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38 1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26
Nov
28		 Wake Forest C- C- D+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% B+ A+ F+ F F F C- C- C- C F F C- F 45% 14% 41% D- F F A D+ A+ D C+ D
1.00 55% 33% 56% +10 +2 1.26 21% 0.7 .14 30% .29 73% .21 1.17 82% 57% 35% +14 +1 1.33 43% 1.0 .43 23% .36 75% .27
Dec
3		 Holy Cross F D F F+ F 43% 8% 49% B+ F C- D D+ F F F F D- D- F D+ F 38% 34% 28% C+ F C- A+ B D+ B F C+
0.89 55% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.88 27% 1.0 .27 20% .15 38% .06 1.14 63% 65% 36% +12 -2 1.22 22% 0.7 .15 15% .23 85% .19
Dec
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- C C C- D+ 44% 10% 46% B- C- F A+ C- D C- A- C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% F A+ B+ A+ A F+ D+ A+ B
1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21 0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17
Dec
20		 Syracuse A D+ A+ C A- 51% 11% 38% A A A+ D- B+ C+ B+ F C+ F+ A F F F 53% 29% 18% B- F F A+ C- C F D- F
1.19 50% 83% 33% +1 +2 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 19% .35 65% .23 1.31 50% 91% 43% +14 0 1.29 53% 0.7 .35 16% .82 71% .58
Dec
22		 Rhode Island A C- F A+ A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ C+ F D- B- A+ B+ A+ F C- F D+ F 36% 24% 40% A- F F D+ F D B+ B B+
1.19 55% 0% 50% +9 +3 1.27 32% 0.7 .21 20% .48 76% .37 1.31 61% 83% 35% +13 -1 1.26 47% 1.0 .47 17% .30 69% .20
Dec
29		 Elon A- C F+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% B- A+ D- C D D- C F+ D+ F F F F F 49% 6% 45% D F F F F B F D- F
1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19 1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33
Dec
31		 N.C. A&T A C A+ A+ A- 48% 24% 28% C B+ C+ B B- B A+ F+ A D D- F A+ D+ 33% 28% 40% C C- F B- D D F B- F
1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29 1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42
Jan
3		 Campbell C+ C+ B A- B- 39% 25% 36% D+ C+ F A+ D+ B F A+ D- F F F B- F 55% 14% 31% D F C A+ A- F F F+ F
1.14 64% 43% 40% +7 -1 1.14 14% 2.3 .32 15% .20 92% .18 1.34 79% 57% 31% +13 +2 1.31 33% 0.8 .26 12% .49 77% .38
Jan
8		 UNC Wilmington C- B- F C- C+ 51% 15% 35% A+ B- D C+ D+ A A+ F B- D- A A+ F+ B+ 50% 13% 38% F C+ D+ C C- B+ F F F
1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21 1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50
Jan
10		 Towson B- B- B C+ B 39% 17% 44% B- B D- C D A A- A+ A+ F F F F F 52% 30% 18% F+ F F F F A+ D- D+ F+
1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30 1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25
Jan
15		 Elon D+ C A- D D+ 39% 19% 42% C+ D+ D A+ A+ C+ F C+ F B- C A+ F D- 44% 8% 48% C- D A C B+ A+ C A+ B
1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12 1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19
Jan
19		 Monmouth D- A+ A+ F C 47% 15% 38% B C C+ F F F C- C- C- D B- F D D- 36% 19% 46% D D- D D D- F A+ A+ A+
0.95 72% 50% 20% +1 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19 1.13 52% 45% 37% +2 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11
Jan
22		 Stony Brook C A F F D- 39% 18% 44% C+ D D A+ A+ A C F F F D- C F F 33% 10% 57% D+ F F B D+ B+ F D F
1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13 1.33 63% 40% 57% +22 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27
Jan
24		 Drexel B F A+ A- B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D A+ B A C- F D F F F C F 35% 31% 35% A- F B A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.12 43% 54% 38% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.4 .38 12% .29 67% .20 1.20 71% 60% 35% +12 -2 1.22 26% 0.4 .12 10% .45 68% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 College of Charleston B+ A C A+ A 40% 23% 37% B- A B- D- C- A+ F F F F D F A+ D 58% 13% 28% F F+ B- F+ C- F D D+ D-
1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03 1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31
Feb
5		 Hofstra D- C A+ B- A 27% 27% 46% D+ A- F D+ F F+ D- F F+ D+ F D- B D 32% 26% 42% C+ D+ D- B- C- D+ C+ D C+
0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17 1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21
Feb
7		 Stony Brook F F F F F 30% 26% 44% D- F D A+ B+ D C+ F C- B- F D+ A D 38% 15% 47% D+ D A+ F B+ B- F D+ F
0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20 1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 1.1 3.7 1.0 5.8 11th
12th 1.5 11.6 24.9 20.3 6.3 0.2 64.9 12th
13th 7.2 12.1 6.7 1.3 0.0 27.2 13th
Total 8.7 23.7 31.6 22.7 10.5 2.6 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.3% 0.3
7-11 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 10.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.4
5-13 22.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.6
4-14 31.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 31.5
3-15 23.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.7
2-16 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%