Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#149
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#148
Pace67.6#232
Improvement+2.0#22

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#152
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#282
Layup/Dunks+11.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#256
Freethrows-3.7#331
Improvement+0.4#118

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#211
Layups/Dunks+1.8#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement+1.6#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.7% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 77.2% 82.8% 62.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.2% 79.3% 67.8%
Conference Champion 12.1% 13.7% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.2% 2.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round10.4% 11.7% 7.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Neutral) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 67 - 10
Quad 413 - 319 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 286   @ Boston University W 80-72 65%     1 - 0 +4.6 +12.0 -6.8
  Nov 10, 2024 109   Princeton L 76-79 49%     1 - 1 -2.0 +0.8 -2.8
  Nov 13, 2024 244   Harvard W 78-56 77%     2 - 1 +14.9 +2.0 +12.7
  Nov 16, 2024 254   Central Connecticut St. W 80-62 70%     3 - 1 +13.2 +7.5 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 275   Florida International W 78-72 73%    
  Nov 23, 2024 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 67-66 51%    
  Nov 24, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-67 66%    
  Nov 30, 2024 151   @ Vermont L 63-66 40%    
  Dec 03, 2024 121   La Salle W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 08, 2024 189   Colgate W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 15, 2024 303   @ Old Dominion W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 18, 2024 128   @ Massachusetts L 70-75 33%    
  Dec 29, 2024 74   @ Northwestern L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 02, 2025 216   Delaware W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 134   Hofstra W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 129   @ Towson L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 302   @ Stony Brook W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 16, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 112   @ College of Charleston L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 23, 2025 144   Drexel W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 27, 2025 129   Towson W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 307   @ Hampton W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   @ Elon L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 134   @ Hofstra L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 307   Hampton W 74-62 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 257   Campbell W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 302   Stony Brook W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 20, 2025 112   College of Charleston L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 265   @ Monmouth W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 285   N.C. A&T W 82-72 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 210   @ William & Mary L 77-78 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.9 4.0 0.7 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.3 0.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.5 1.5 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.3 6.4 8.9 11.3 12.7 13.4 12.6 10.4 7.9 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 95.3% 2.1    1.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 77.2% 3.6    2.3 1.1 0.2
14-4 45.2% 3.6    1.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.8 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 59.4% 53.6% 5.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12.5%
17-1 0.8% 43.6% 43.3% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5%
16-2 2.2% 34.7% 34.7% 12.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
15-3 4.6% 29.0% 29.0% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-4 7.9% 22.3% 22.3% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 6.1
13-5 10.4% 19.2% 19.2% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.4
12-6 12.6% 13.5% 13.5% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.9
11-7 13.4% 8.5% 8.5% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.2
10-8 12.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.0
9-9 11.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0
8-10 8.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7
7-11 6.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
6-12 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.5% 10.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.6 2.9 1.3 0.2 89.5 0.0%