UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#141
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#132
Pace64.8#275
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#120
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#74
Layup/Dunks-1.1#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#291
Freethrows+3.4#25
Improvement-0.1#188

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#197
First Shot+0.3#170
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#268
Layups/Dunks+1.1#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-1.1#264
Improvement+0.3#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 18.3% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 95.4% 81.8%
Conference Champion 16.4% 20.7% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.6% 18.3% 12.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 37 - 57 - 6
Quad 414 - 421 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 272   Georgia Southern W 92-84 84%     1 - 0 -1.0 +5.9 -7.7
  Nov 15, 2024 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 83%     2 - 0 -4.7 +2.7 -7.8
  Nov 19, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 66-84 4%     2 - 1 +4.3 +6.2 -2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 198   Colgate L 59-72 72%     2 - 2 -17.4 -5.8 -13.7
  Nov 29, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 67%     3 - 2 +5.9 -1.4 +8.0
  Nov 30, 2024 123   Appalachian St. W 76-61 56%     4 - 2 +14.9 +17.8 -0.7
  Dec 03, 2024 164   @ East Carolina W 67-53 45%     5 - 2 +16.9 -1.5 +18.9
  Dec 07, 2024 179   Marshall W 78-69 69%     6 - 2 +5.4 +0.7 +4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 281   @ Howard L 83-88 71%     6 - 3 -9.2 +1.6 -10.7
  Dec 18, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-66 67%     7 - 3 +9.9 +13.4 -2.1
  Dec 21, 2024 187   UNC Asheville W 85-74 70%     8 - 3 +7.1 +13.5 -5.4
  Jan 02, 2025 176   Towson L 61-65 OT 68%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -7.4 -9.3 +1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 252   Campbell W 77-69 81%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +0.2 +9.4 -8.5
  Jan 09, 2025 267   @ Monmouth W 64-55 68%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +5.7 -4.4 +10.9
  Jan 11, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 63-66 47%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -0.7 +5.6 -6.8
  Jan 16, 2025 200   Northeastern W 80-72 72%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +3.4 +10.4 -6.5
  Jan 20, 2025 189   William & Mary W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 23, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 256   Hampton W 73-63 83%    
  Jan 30, 2025 323   @ N.C. A&T W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 77-64 90%    
  Feb 06, 2025 196   @ Delaware W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 193   @ Drexel W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 127   College of Charleston W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 158   Elon W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 20, 2025 189   @ William & Mary W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 256   @ Hampton W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 252   @ Campbell W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 196   Delaware W 81-75 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 4.5 6.9 3.2 0.8 16.4 1st
2nd 0.5 5.1 7.3 2.2 0.1 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 8.5 2.7 0.2 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 7.7 4.2 0.3 13.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.1 5.6 0.6 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 5.7 1.4 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.4 2.5 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.3 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.6 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 5.2 10.1 15.1 18.8 19.3 14.7 9.4 3.3 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.8% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 95.8% 3.2    2.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 73.7% 6.9    3.4 2.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 30.7% 4.5    0.9 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.9    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 7.7 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 39.8% 39.8% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5
15-3 3.3% 32.4% 32.4% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 2.2
14-4 9.4% 30.9% 30.9% 13.3 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.0 6.5
13-5 14.7% 24.8% 24.8% 13.7 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.3 11.1
12-6 19.3% 19.0% 19.0% 13.9 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 15.7
11-7 18.8% 13.4% 13.4% 14.3 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 16.3
10-8 15.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 13.6
9-9 10.1% 5.6% 5.6% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.5
8-10 5.2% 5.8% 5.8% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.9
7-11 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 0.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 1.2 4.3 8.2 2.7 0.2 83.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.0 12.1 75.8 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%