UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#142
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#132
Pace67.5#221
Improvement+0.5#148

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#135
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#81
Layup/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#342
Freethrows+4.6#8
Improvement-1.2#284

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#184
First Shot+0.8#152
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#284
Layups/Dunks+0.8#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement+1.7#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 15.4% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 93.4% 96.2% 87.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 87.9% 81.3%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.8% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.0% 15.4% 11.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 46 - 6
Quad 414 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 92-84 77%     1 - 0 +1.1 +7.8 -7.5
  Nov 15, 2024 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 79%     2 - 0 -3.4 +3.0 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 10   @ Kansas L 66-84 5%     2 - 1 +2.4 +3.7 -1.3
  Nov 27, 2024 224   Colgate L 59-72 76%     2 - 2 -19.3 -7.4 -14.1
  Nov 29, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 58%     3 - 2 +8.0 -0.3 +9.1
  Nov 30, 2024 171   Appalachian St. W 76-61 68%     4 - 2 +11.3 +16.0 -2.5
  Dec 03, 2024 164   @ East Carolina W 67-53 44%     5 - 2 +16.5 -2.0 +19.0
  Dec 07, 2024 186   Marshall W 78-69 69%     6 - 2 +4.7 +0.4 +3.9
  Dec 14, 2024 254   @ Howard L 83-88 62%     6 - 3 -7.2 +4.7 -11.8
  Dec 18, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 21, 2024 182   UNC Asheville W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 209   Towson W 68-62 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 269   Campbell W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 09, 2025 273   @ Monmouth W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 158   Northeastern W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 20, 2025 225   William & Mary W 83-76 75%    
  Jan 23, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 270   Hampton W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 30, 2025 313   @ N.C. A&T W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 309   Stony Brook W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 06, 2025 207   @ Delaware W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 122   College of Charleston W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 149   Elon W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 225   @ William & Mary W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 270   @ Hampton W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 269   @ Campbell W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 207   Delaware W 80-74 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.6 5.6 3.4 1.2 0.2 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.2 3.9 1.0 0.1 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 5.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.6 1.5 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.5 9.3 12.5 14.2 15.1 13.1 10.1 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.8% 3.4    3.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 84.3% 5.6    4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.5% 5.6    2.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.4% 2.9    0.7 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 11.6 5.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 48.2% 48.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 38.3% 38.3% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.5% 33.8% 33.8% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3
15-3 6.6% 30.2% 30.2% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.6
14-4 10.1% 23.5% 23.5% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 7.8
13-5 13.1% 20.2% 20.2% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.5
12-6 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 12.8
11-7 14.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 12.8
10-8 12.5% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.6
9-9 9.3% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.9
8-10 6.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4
7-11 3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.9 5.0 1.8 0.2 86.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 3.0 3.0 6.1 18.2 42.4 27.3