Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#149
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#125
Pace66.1#260
Improvement+0.4#155

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#159
First Shot-1.7#219
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#68
Layup/Dunks-2.1#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement-2.0#319

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#168
First Shot+4.5#52
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#363
Layups/Dunks+6.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#313
Freethrows+2.6#40
Improvement+2.4#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 15.5% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 87.5% 94.6% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 88.5% 81.2%
Conference Champion 18.6% 23.5% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.5% 15.5% 10.6%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 38.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 56 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 18   @ North Carolina L 76-90 6%     0 - 1 +3.7 +6.1 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 240   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 56%     0 - 2 -2.1 +10.0 -12.1
  Nov 20, 2024 344   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 80%     1 - 2 +18.6 +2.2 +17.5
  Nov 22, 2024 81   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 19%     2 - 2 +16.8 +23.3 -5.8
  Nov 29, 2024 213   Maine L 56-69 62%     2 - 3 -15.5 -10.9 -5.8
  Nov 30, 2024 301   Navy W 69-63 78%     3 - 3 -1.5 -6.8 +5.5
  Dec 01, 2024 284   @ Penn W 68-53 65%     4 - 3 +11.4 +3.6 +10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 163   Wofford W 79-56 65%     5 - 3 +19.6 +7.4 +13.7
  Dec 18, 2024 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 21, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 28, 2024 186   Marshall W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 313   @ N.C. A&T W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 270   Hampton W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 225   @ William & Mary W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 269   Campbell W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Delaware L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 273   Monmouth W 75-66 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 122   College of Charleston W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 156   Hofstra W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 158   Northeastern W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 269   @ Campbell W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 209   Towson W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 225   William & Mary W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 273   @ Monmouth W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   @ Stony Brook W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.3 5.3 3.1 1.2 0.2 18.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 6.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.6 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 7.1 9.7 12.6 14.2 14.2 12.5 9.8 6.4 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.1% 3.1    2.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 83.7% 5.3    3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.1% 5.3    2.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.2% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 11.1 5.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 44.9% 44.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 38.7% 38.7% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.2% 32.6% 32.6% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.2
15-3 6.4% 29.2% 29.2% 12.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.5
14-4 9.8% 22.6% 22.6% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 7.6
13-5 12.5% 17.6% 17.6% 13.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.3
12-6 14.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.3
11-7 14.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 12.9
10-8 12.6% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 11.9
9-9 9.7% 3.7% 3.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.3
8-10 7.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9
7-11 4.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.5 4.0 1.5 0.2 87.5 0.0%