Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#158
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#126
Pace63.4#312
Improvement-0.7#215

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#149
First Shot-2.8#262
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#15
Layup/Dunks-2.8#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement-0.7#223

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#196
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#351
Layups/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#293
Freethrows+2.1#53
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.6% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 98.4% 99.1% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 96.1% 84.6%
Conference Champion 16.6% 18.9% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.7% 13.6% 8.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 26   @ North Carolina L 76-90 7%     0 - 1 +2.5 +6.9 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 239   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 58%     0 - 2 -2.6 +9.7 -12.3
  Nov 20, 2024 356   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 85%     1 - 2 +16.0 +1.0 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 77   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 18%     2 - 2 +17.0 +21.5 -3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 202   Maine L 56-69 59%     2 - 3 -14.9 -10.1 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2024 291   Navy W 69-63 77%     3 - 3 -1.5 -6.4 +5.0
  Dec 01, 2024 287   @ Penn W 68-53 68%     4 - 3 +10.6 +3.4 +9.7
  Dec 07, 2024 130   Wofford W 79-56 55%     5 - 3 +22.2 +8.3 +15.3
  Dec 18, 2024 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 36%     5 - 4 -22.1 -8.9 -15.1
  Dec 21, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 54%     6 - 4 +3.3 +7.7 -3.9
  Dec 28, 2024 179   Marshall W 73-59 65%     7 - 4 +10.4 +0.3 +10.3
  Jan 02, 2025 323   @ N.C. A&T W 75-67 75%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.4 +7.5 -5.2
  Jan 04, 2025 256   Hampton W 70-62 79%     9 - 4 2 - 0 -0.1 -0.8 +1.2
  Jan 09, 2025 189   @ William & Mary L 65-78 46%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -11.5 -1.6 -11.7
  Jan 13, 2025 252   Campbell W 81-68 78%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +5.2 +13.1 -6.8
  Jan 16, 2025 193   @ Drexel W 65-54 46%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +12.4 +8.3 +6.4
  Jan 18, 2025 196   @ Delaware L 77-79 47%     11 - 6 4 - 2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.6
  Jan 23, 2025 267   Monmouth W 74-65 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 127   College of Charleston W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 30, 2025 174   Hofstra W 65-61 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 200   Northeastern W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 252   @ Campbell W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 323   N.C. A&T W 80-68 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 176   Towson W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 189   William & Mary W 79-75 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 267   @ Monmouth W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 4.9 7.0 3.2 0.7 16.6 1st
2nd 0.6 5.7 8.2 2.8 0.2 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.9 9.1 3.1 0.2 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.8 4.8 0.5 14.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 5.8 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.4 1.4 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.4 3.5 2.5 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.3 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.0 8.4 14.2 19.6 21.1 16.7 9.9 3.4 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-3 93.5% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 70.2% 7.0    3.4 3.0 0.5 0.1
13-5 29.3% 4.9    1.0 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 7.7 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 33.3% 33.3% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 3.4% 27.4% 27.4% 12.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 2.5
14-4 9.9% 23.8% 23.8% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 7.6
13-5 16.7% 18.1% 18.1% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.2 13.7
12-6 21.1% 13.9% 13.9% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 18.1
11-7 19.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 17.7
10-8 14.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.4
9-9 8.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.1
8-10 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 3.9
7-11 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 1.2 4.0 5.7 1.7 0.1 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.0 13.0 73.9 8.7 4.3