IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.5	#190
Expected Predictive Rating	-19.1	#355

Pace	67.4	#243
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.2	#176

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.7%	15.4%	8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.5	14.1	14.8

.500 or above	55.3%	74.9%	48.0%
.500 or above in Conference	67.9%	78.5%	64.0%
Conference Champion	13.0%	19.8%	10.6%
Last Place in Conference	2.7%	1.2%	3.3%

First Four	1.6%	1.3%	1.7%
First Round	10.0%	14.9%	8.2%
Second Round	0.8%	1.6%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 6	4 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 5	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	225	Eastern Kentucky	L	78-82	67%	0 - 1			-10.2	+3.9	-14.3
Nov 16, 2024	130	@ Davidson	L	67-73	27%
Nov 22, 2024	316	South Carolina Upstate	W	78-68	82%
Nov 24, 2024	297	Queens	W	80-72	79%
Nov 27, 2024	133	@ Charlotte	L	64-70	28%
Nov 30, 2024	215	Austin Peay	W	70-66	66%
Dec 03, 2024	126	@ James Madison	L	71-78	26%
Dec 07, 2024	86	@ Wichita St.	L	67-78	16%
Dec 14, 2024	232	@ Jacksonville	L	68-69	46%
Dec 18, 2024	272	Elon	W	75-68	74%
Dec 21, 2024	205	@ UMKC	L	69-71	43%
Jan 01, 2025	357	VMI	W	86-70	91%
Jan 04, 2025	178	Wofford	W	71-69	58%
Jan 08, 2025	249	@ Mercer	L	71-72	50%
Jan 11, 2025	292	The Citadel	W	71-63	77%
Jan 15, 2025	148	@ Furman	L	70-76	31%
Jan 18, 2025	141	@ Samford	L	75-81	32%
Jan 22, 2025	263	Western Carolina	W	72-65	72%
Jan 25, 2025	179	Chattanooga	W	73-71	58%
Jan 29, 2025	174	@ UNC Greensboro	L	66-70	38%
Feb 01, 2025	148	Furman	W	74-73	51%
Feb 05, 2025	357	@ VMI	W	83-73	79%
Feb 08, 2025	141	Samford	W	79-78	51%
Feb 12, 2025	263	@ Western Carolina	W	69-68	52%
Feb 15, 2025	179	@ Chattanooga	L	70-74	38%
Feb 19, 2025	174	UNC Greensboro	W	69-67	57%
Feb 22, 2025	178	@ Wofford	L	68-72	38%
Feb 26, 2025	249	Mercer	W	75-69	69%
Mar 01, 2025	292	@ The Citadel	W	68-66	58%
Projected Record						15 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.7	2.2	3.7	3.3	2.1	0.9	0.2		13.0	1st
2nd											0.1	1.2	4.0	4.7	2.5	0.7	0.1				13.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.6	4.8	4.8	1.8	0.2	0.0					13.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.6	4.9	4.5	1.1	0.1							12.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.6	4.7	4.5	1.0	0.0								12.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.8	4.6	4.2	0.8	0.0									11.7	6th
7th					0.0	0.3	1.7	3.8	3.1	0.7	0.0										9.6	7th
8th				0.1	0.5	1.9	3.1	2.1	0.5	0.0											8.1	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0												5.2	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0														1.4	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.2	4.1	6.1	8.0	9.9	11.3	12.0	11.6	10.7	8.8	6.3	4.0	2.1	0.9	0.2			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
16-2	97.6%	2.1		1.8	0.2
15-3	82.9%	3.3		2.5	0.8	0.0
14-4	57.9%	3.7		2.0	1.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	24.9%	2.2		0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1
12-6	6.3%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.0%	13.0		8.1	3.7	1.0	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		59.2%	59.2%		11.7										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
17-1	0.9%		50.7%	50.7%		12.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.5
16-2	2.1%		39.7%	39.7%		13.1												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.3
15-3	4.0%		33.3%	33.3%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	2.7
14-4	6.3%		27.4%	27.4%		14.1													0.0	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	4.6
13-5	8.8%		18.9%	18.9%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	7.1
12-6	10.7%		14.0%	14.0%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	9.2
11-7	11.6%		9.3%	9.3%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	10.5
10-8	12.0%		6.9%	6.9%		15.6															0.1	0.2	0.6	11.2
9-9	11.3%		5.4%	5.4%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.5	10.7
8-10	9.9%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.6
7-11	8.0%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.1	7.9
6-12	6.1%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.0
5-13	4.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.1
4-14	2.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
3-15	1.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	14.5									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	2.6	2.8	3.0	89.3		0.0%