East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#154
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#210
Pace65.8#248
Improvement-0.6#211

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#164
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks-2.6#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#40
Freethrows-3.2#346
Improvement-1.9#294

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot-0.1#181
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#167
Layups/Dunks-2.6#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#82
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement+1.3#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.4% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 82.0% 90.1% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 96.8% 84.0%
Conference Champion 5.7% 8.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.6% 14.4% 9.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 86 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 75%     0 - 1 -10.5 +4.2 -14.9
  Nov 16, 2024 123   @ Davidson L 70-76 35%     0 - 2 -1.3 +4.9 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 345   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.7 +0.4 -4.9
  Nov 24, 2024 220   Queens W 82-67 73%     2 - 2 +9.3 +6.9 +2.7
  Nov 27, 2024 215   @ Charlotte W 75-55 54%     3 - 2 +19.7 +6.5 +14.4
  Nov 30, 2024 293   Austin Peay W 79-57 84%     4 - 2 +12.1 +8.2 +5.3
  Dec 03, 2024 142   @ James Madison L 61-71 38%     4 - 3 -6.2 -6.9 +0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 137   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 37%     4 - 4 -4.9 +8.4 -12.5
  Dec 14, 2024 173   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 45%     4 - 5 -5.9 -16.9 +10.8
  Dec 18, 2024 183   Elon W 84-58 66%     5 - 5 +22.5 +14.6 +9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ UMKC L 66-73 58%     5 - 6 -8.3 +6.0 -15.5
  Jan 01, 2025 305   VMI W 84-69 86%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +4.3 +13.1 -7.5
  Jan 04, 2025 162   Wofford L 78-81 62%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -5.4 +4.7 -10.2
  Jan 08, 2025 222   @ Mercer W 70-68 56%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +1.3 +0.4 +0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 355   The Citadel W 70-52 93%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +1.8 -0.2 +4.4
  Jan 15, 2025 163   @ Furman L 70-73 43%     8 - 8 3 - 2 -0.4 +2.2 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 110   @ Samford W 65-60 30%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +11.1 -5.4 +16.6
  Jan 22, 2025 349   Western Carolina W 85-58 92%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +11.9 +13.7 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 143   Chattanooga L 63-71 58%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -9.3 -12.6 +3.2
  Jan 29, 2025 147   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-70 39%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -1.4 +9.9 -12.5
  Feb 02, 2025 163   Furman W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 305   @ VMI W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 110   Samford L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 349   @ Western Carolina W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 143   @ Chattanooga L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 147   UNC Greensboro W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   @ Wofford L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 222   Mercer W 76-70 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 355   @ The Citadel W 73-61 85%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.4 5.7 1st
2nd 0.8 6.7 4.5 0.3 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 8.1 9.3 0.7 18.5 3rd
4th 0.3 6.0 13.5 1.8 0.0 21.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 12.1 3.6 19.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 8.2 4.4 0.1 15.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.7 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 6.1 14.0 23.0 26.0 18.6 8.7 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 82.4% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1
13-5 39.4% 3.4    0.5 1.6 1.2 0.2
12-6 4.6% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.7% 30.0% 30.0% 12.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2
13-5 8.7% 25.7% 25.7% 13.5 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 6.5
12-6 18.6% 15.8% 15.8% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 15.7
11-7 26.0% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.0 23.0
10-8 23.0% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.5 1.8 0.1 20.6
9-9 14.0% 7.6% 7.6% 15.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 12.9
8-10 6.1% 5.5% 5.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 5.7
7-11 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.3 2.4 4.8 4.6 0.5 87.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.6 41.2 54.9 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%