East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#146
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#167
Pace64.0#292
Improvement-0.5#217

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#188
First Shot-1.4#217
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#126
Layup/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#50
Freethrows-3.3#348
Improvement-3.1#321

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#135
First Shot+0.9#151
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks-2.2#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#72
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement+2.6#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 25.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.3% 25.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 197   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 70%     0 - 1 -8.7 +4.5 -13.4
  Nov 16, 2024 132   @ Davidson L 70-76 37%     0 - 2 -1.7 +5.6 -8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 344   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.9 +0.0 -4.6
  Nov 24, 2024 214   Queens W 82-67 73%     2 - 2 +9.4 +6.8 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2024 236   @ Charlotte W 75-55 59%     3 - 2 +18.4 +5.0 +14.6
  Nov 30, 2024 279   Austin Peay W 79-57 83%     4 - 2 +12.8 +6.1 +8.0
  Dec 03, 2024 157   @ James Madison L 61-71 42%     4 - 3 -7.0 -8.8 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2024 117   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 32%     4 - 4 -3.4 +9.8 -12.4
  Dec 14, 2024 189   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 49%     4 - 5 -7.0 -16.6 +9.5
  Dec 18, 2024 199   Elon W 84-58 70%     5 - 5 +21.3 +14.2 +8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 235   @ UMKC L 66-73 59%     5 - 6 -8.5 +6.3 -16.0
  Jan 01, 2025 308   VMI W 84-69 87%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +3.7 +13.6 -8.6
  Jan 04, 2025 143   Wofford L 78-81 60%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -4.7 +5.6 -10.5
  Jan 08, 2025 258   @ Mercer W 70-68 63%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -0.5 +0.5 -1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 357   The Citadel W 70-52 94%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +0.8 -1.6 +4.9
  Jan 15, 2025 148   @ Furman L 70-73 40%     8 - 8 3 - 2 +0.3 +2.8 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 113   @ Samford W 65-60 32%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +10.7 -5.6 +16.5
  Jan 22, 2025 339   Western Carolina W 85-58 92%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +12.6 +12.7 +1.9
  Jan 25, 2025 115   Chattanooga L 63-71 52%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -7.7 -14.1 +6.4
  Jan 29, 2025 144   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-70 39%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -1.4 +10.0 -12.6
  Feb 02, 2025 148   Furman W 72-69 61%     11 - 10 6 - 4 +0.9 +7.2 -5.9
  Feb 05, 2025 308   @ VMI W 62-55 74%     12 - 10 7 - 4 +1.1 -11.0 +12.3
  Feb 08, 2025 113   Samford W 66-59 52%     13 - 10 8 - 4 +7.3 -6.3 +13.8
  Feb 12, 2025 339   @ Western Carolina L 67-76 82%     13 - 11 8 - 5 -18.0 -7.2 -11.0
  Feb 15, 2025 115   @ Chattanooga L 71-78 32%     13 - 12 8 - 6 -1.3 +10.3 -12.9
  Feb 19, 2025 144   UNC Greensboro W 65-49 60%     14 - 12 9 - 6 +14.2 +2.1 +14.8
  Feb 22, 2025 143   @ Wofford W 73-68 39%     15 - 12 10 - 6 +8.7 +8.9 +0.4
  Feb 26, 2025 258   Mercer W 59-58 80%     16 - 12 11 - 6 -7.0 -14.6 +7.7
  Mar 01, 2025 357   @ The Citadel W 81-66 88%     17 - 12 12 - 6 +3.3 +14.5 -9.1
  Mar 08, 2025 143   Wofford L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 12.3% 12.3% 13.9 0.1 2.9 7.1 2.3 0.0 87.7
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 2.9 7.1 2.3 0.0 87.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.3% 100.0% 13.9 0.5 23.3 57.8 18.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.8%
Lose Out 50.8%