Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#100
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#50
Pace73.9#66
Improvement-3.9#351

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#119
First Shot+5.2#50
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#330
Layup/Dunks+7.7#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#308
Freethrows+3.4#32
Improvement-1.9#311

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#98
First Shot+6.8#19
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#357
Layups/Dunks+1.1#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows+4.1#7
Improvement-2.1#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 97.4% 98.0% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 84.6% 75.3%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.6% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 1.4%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round9.3% 9.7% 5.4%
Second Round2.2% 2.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 38 - 312 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 106   @ Western Kentucky W 91-84 41%     1 - 0 +14.3 +10.2 +3.0
  Nov 09, 2024 139   Montana St. W 89-69 75%     2 - 0 +18.1 +15.9 +2.5
  Nov 14, 2024 99   Northern Iowa W 79-73 61%     3 - 0 +8.3 +6.9 +1.4
  Nov 18, 2024 273   Monmouth W 70-66 90%     4 - 0 -4.9 -7.3 +2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 135   Saint Louis W 88-63 64%     5 - 0 +26.4 +3.4 +20.4
  Nov 28, 2024 114   Minnesota W 68-66 OT 57%     6 - 0 +5.3 -3.6 +8.9
  Nov 29, 2024 8   Florida L 51-88 12%     6 - 1 -19.1 -14.0 -5.8
  Dec 04, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 78-54 95%     7 - 1 +9.7 -2.2 +11.9
  Dec 07, 2024 147   East Tennessee St. W 96-87 76%     8 - 1 +6.6 +13.8 -8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 88   @ DePaul L 72-91 35%     8 - 2 -9.9 +1.5 -10.9
  Dec 17, 2024 271   UMKC W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 64   Kansas St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 03, 2025 118   @ Temple L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 06, 2025 145   South Florida W 79-72 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 234   @ Texas San Antonio W 83-77 71%    
  Jan 14, 2025 170   Charlotte W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 164   East Carolina W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 34   @ Memphis L 75-85 17%    
  Jan 26, 2025 247   @ Tulsa W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 29, 2025 72   North Texas W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 170   @ Charlotte W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 09, 2025 145   @ South Florida W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 234   Texas San Antonio W 86-74 86%    
  Feb 16, 2025 34   Memphis L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 84   @ Florida Atlantic L 79-84 34%    
  Feb 23, 2025 203   Tulane W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 137   UAB W 84-77 73%    
  Mar 03, 2025 72   @ North Texas L 62-68 31%    
  Mar 06, 2025 197   @ Rice W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 09, 2025 247   Tulsa W 81-68 87%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.8 4.9 1.7 0.2 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.5 4.9 1.1 0.1 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 6.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.6 7.6 10.9 13.9 15.5 15.0 12.4 8.5 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 91.3% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 64.0% 3.1    1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.6% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 8.2% 1.0    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 88.5% 40.4% 48.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.6%
17-1 0.6% 59.6% 32.6% 27.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 40.0%
16-2 2.0% 41.0% 28.1% 12.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.2 17.9%
15-3 4.8% 28.0% 23.6% 4.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 3.5 5.7%
14-4 8.5% 18.6% 17.3% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.0 6.9 1.7%
13-5 12.4% 14.2% 14.0% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 10.6 0.3%
12-6 15.0% 10.2% 10.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.5 0.1%
11-7 15.5% 7.1% 7.1% 12.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 14.4
10-8 13.9% 4.0% 4.0% 12.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.4
9-9 10.9% 2.9% 2.9% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6
8-10 7.6% 1.7% 1.7% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
7-11 4.6% 1.7% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 8.9% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.5 4.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.3 0.9%