Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#273
Expected Predictive Rating-12.1#334
Pace68.8#187
Improvement+2.5#44

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#257
First Shot-3.6#288
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks-5.1#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-0.3#202

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#263
First Shot-1.9#232
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#263
Layups/Dunks-1.7#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
Freethrows-1.7#297
Improvement+2.8#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 1.1% 1.5% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.5% 29.4% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 13.9% 19.7%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 93 - 15
Quad 46 - 99 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 2%     0 - 1 -5.7 -7.9 +3.0
  Nov 08, 2024 118   Temple L 74-103 20%     0 - 2 -26.1 -0.9 -23.8
  Nov 12, 2024 344   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 60%     0 - 3 -21.4 -11.1 -10.1
  Nov 15, 2024 62   @ Rutgers L 81-98 6%     0 - 4 -5.2 +13.7 -18.8
  Nov 18, 2024 100   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 10%     0 - 5 +4.0 -2.5 +6.6
  Nov 21, 2024 211   Youngstown St. L 62-72 37%     0 - 6 -12.4 -12.2 +0.2
  Nov 22, 2024 214   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 27%     0 - 7 -4.7 +1.8 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 250   Presbyterian L 61-71 46%     0 - 8 -14.9 -8.4 -7.6
  Nov 30, 2024 117   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 14%     1 - 8 +18.0 +8.2 +11.7
  Dec 04, 2024 246   @ Lehigh L 63-90 34%     1 - 9 -28.8 -12.6 -16.5
  Dec 10, 2024 119   @ Princeton L 67-71 14%     1 - 10 +1.8 -0.1 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2024 292   Fairfield W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 30, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 61-93 0.2%   
  Jan 02, 2025 309   Stony Brook W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 207   @ Delaware L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 09, 2025 142   UNC Wilmington L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 122   College of Charleston L 73-78 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 313   @ N.C. A&T L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 269   @ Campbell L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 149   @ Elon L 66-75 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 225   @ William & Mary L 76-82 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 153   Drexel L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   Delaware L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 06, 2025 270   Hampton W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 209   Towson L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 309   @ Stony Brook L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 209   @ Towson L 61-68 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   Northeastern L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 149   Elon L 69-72 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 63-72 21%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.7 2.3 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.5 1.5 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 2.8 0.2 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 11.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.9 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 2.7 5.7 9.2 12.6 14.7 14.5 13.0 10.2 7.1 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 83.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 52.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 13.9% 13.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.3% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
12-6 2.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4
11-7 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.2 4.4
10-8 7.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.0
9-9 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 10.1
8-10 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.9
7-11 14.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.4
6-12 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.2
3-15 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.7
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%