Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#344
Expected Predictive Rating-11.9#333
Pace71.0#120
Improvement-1.9#296

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#349
First Shot-1.9#229
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#362
Layup/Dunks-7.6#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#38
Freethrows+3.0#44
Improvement-0.5#225

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#310
First Shot-3.6#297
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows-4.1#356
Improvement-1.3#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.7% 12.9% 7.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 41.6% 29.7% 42.7%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 96 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 235   @ Georgia Southern L 65-80 16%     0 - 1 -15.9 -10.9 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 273   Monmouth W 79-66 40%     1 - 1 +4.1 +0.4 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 76   @ Bradley L 60-76 3%     1 - 2 -5.9 -7.6 +1.0
  Nov 20, 2024 149   Elon L 48-75 20%     1 - 3 -29.5 -24.3 -6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 88   @ DePaul L 52-98 4%     1 - 4 -36.9 -19.3 -15.3
  Nov 27, 2024 227   @ Valparaiso L 82-87 15%     1 - 5 -5.5 +2.4 -7.5
  Nov 29, 2024 322   @ Eastern Illinois L 59-72 31%     1 - 6 -19.1 -14.7 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa L 57-101 4%     1 - 7 -35.7 -10.3 -27.6
  Dec 18, 2024 160   @ Illinois St. L 64-78 9%    
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 07, 2025 115   Kent St. L 60-72 14%    
  Jan 11, 2025 161   @ Ohio L 69-83 10%    
  Jan 14, 2025 195   Miami (OH) L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 219   Central Michigan L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 21, 2025 295   @ Western Michigan L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 285   Ball St. L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 28, 2025 146   Akron L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   @ Toledo L 72-84 14%    
  Feb 04, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 11, 2025 324   Buffalo W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 285   @ Ball St. L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 146   @ Akron L 70-85 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 25, 2025 195   @ Miami (OH) L 64-77 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 295   Western Michigan L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 04, 2025 265   Bowling Green L 73-76 41%    
  Mar 07, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan L 66-78 15%    
Projected Record 6 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.9 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.9 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 3.1 0.3 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 15.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 5.4 8.2 5.3 1.1 0.0 21.6 11th
12th 1.4 5.0 8.5 8.6 4.5 1.0 0.1 29.1 12th
Total 1.4 5.2 10.0 14.5 16.3 15.6 13.1 9.8 6.4 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 16.0% 16.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-8 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.2
9-9 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-10 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-11 9.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
6-12 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 15.6% 15.6
4-14 16.3% 16.3
3-15 14.5% 14.5
2-16 10.0% 10.0
1-17 5.2% 5.2
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%