Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#307
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#303
Pace68.1#198
Improvement-2.5#293

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#291
First Shot-2.7#251
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#285
Layup/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows-2.4#314
Improvement-4.2#351

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#284
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#353
Layups/Dunks-1.7#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#42
Freethrows-3.4#350
Improvement+1.8#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.6% 26.6% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 14
Quad 47 - 99 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 159   Kent St. L 66-70 29%     0 - 1 -6.5 -1.0 -5.7
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 2 -21.7 -15.5 -5.0
  Nov 19, 2024 192   Rice L 61-83 35%     0 - 3 -26.1 -8.6 -19.4
  Nov 22, 2024 92   Liberty L 69-89 10%     0 - 4 -13.9 +6.2 -21.6
  Nov 23, 2024 119   George Washington L 74-83 16%     0 - 5 -6.3 -0.9 -4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 97   UAB L 86-98 11%     0 - 6 -6.8 +10.8 -17.4
  Nov 30, 2024 205   Nicholls St. L 75-76 38%     0 - 7 -5.9 +5.5 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech L 58-69 22%     0 - 8 -11.1 -11.4 -0.5
  Dec 11, 2024 220   SE Louisiana W 68-61 42%     1 - 8 +1.0 -4.7 +5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 231   Lamar L 45-74 44%     1 - 9 -35.7 -23.3 -16.1
  Dec 18, 2024 123   Appalachian St. W 68-62 22%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +5.9 +2.4 +3.8
  Dec 22, 2024 74   McNeese St. L 56-64 12%     2 - 10 -3.3 -7.6 +3.4
  Jan 02, 2025 292   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-68 37%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -1.8 +1.7 -3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 280   @ Georgia St. L 70-94 35%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -28.2 -7.3 -20.1
  Jan 09, 2025 283   Old Dominion L 60-71 57%     3 - 12 2 - 2 -20.8 -11.7 -10.2
  Jan 11, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 71-68 74%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -11.8 -3.7 -8.0
  Jan 16, 2025 100   @ Arkansas St. L 63-83 8%     4 - 13 3 - 3 -12.5 -5.1 -7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 65-60 54%     5 - 13 4 - 3 -4.3 -6.7 +2.7
  Jan 22, 2025 167   Texas St. L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 167   @ Texas St. L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 126   South Alabama L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 05, 2025 272   @ Georgia Southern L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 12, 2025 117   Troy L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 179   Marshall L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 117   @ Troy L 63-77 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 258   @ Southern Miss L 71-76 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 100   Arkansas St. L 68-78 18%    
  Feb 28, 2025 126   @ South Alabama L 60-73 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.2 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.9 0.9 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 1.8 6.8 3.2 0.1 11.9 8th
9th 0.9 6.9 6.4 0.6 14.8 9th
10th 0.3 5.8 9.6 1.9 0.0 17.7 10th
11th 0.2 4.3 11.0 4.2 0.2 19.9 11th
12th 3.0 9.3 5.9 0.4 18.5 12th
13th 2.2 2.3 0.4 4.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 5.4 16.2 23.9 22.9 16.9 9.2 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 3.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
9-9 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.1
8-10 16.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.9
7-11 22.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.9
6-12 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.9
5-13 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-14 5.4% 5.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%