Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Arkansas St. 27.6%   12   9 - 3 1 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +4.4      +1.5 132 +2.9 97 73.5 70 +7.8 76 +5.8 7
117 Troy 18.5%   6 - 4 1 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +2.8      +0.3 159 +2.4 110 68.3 201 +1.7 143 +6.2 6
125 Texas St. 16.1%   6 - 4 1 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +2.1      +1.9 124 +0.2 158 64.2 301 +3.4 116 +7.7 4
135 James Madison 12.8%   5 - 6 0 - 1 16 - 12 11 - 7 +1.4      +1.7 128 -0.3 177 66.6 239 +0.3 163 -12.0 11
150 South Alabama 9.3%   7 - 4 1 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +0.2      -0.7 192 +0.9 141 62.6 332 -0.5 172 +13.6 1
175 Appalachian St. 6.7%   4 - 6 0 - 1 14 - 13 10 - 8 -0.8      -2.8 249 +2.0 114 63.5 316 -2.9 211 -18.9 13
201 Marshall 4.4%   5 - 6 0 - 1 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.9      -1.0 203 -0.8 197 73.9 63 -4.4 239 -18.8 12
243 Georgia Southern 1.6%   6 - 6 0 - 1 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4.5      -3.3 270 -1.2 205 77.7 18 -0.6 174 -10.1 10
272 Georgia St. 0.8%   3 - 8 0 - 1 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.0      -3.5 276 -2.5 248 71.6 101 -7.1 286 -9.4 9
278 Coastal Carolina 0.7%   5 - 6 0 - 1 12 - 16 7 - 11 -6.4      -3.2 265 -3.2 276 61.2 347 -5.4 261 -7.8 8
282 Southern Miss 0.6%   4 - 7 1 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6.6      -4.4 297 -2.2 236 69.2 173 -4.5 243 +10.3 3
286 Louisiana 0.5%   2 - 10 1 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 11 -6.7      -3.3 268 -3.4 284 68.7 190 -9.9 322 +11.4 2
307 Old Dominion 0.3%   3 - 8 1 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -8.1      -3.9 283 -4.2 303 71.2 111 -10.0 323 +7.7 5
334 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   2 - 10 0 - 1 6 - 23 4 - 14 -10.5      -6.8 342 -3.7 291 67.6 220 -16.0 352 -26.3 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.5 41.9 21.3 13.4 9.1 5.8 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 3.4 24.8 19.6 15.3 12.2 9.4 7.0 4.7 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 3.6 22.1 18.9 15.3 12.7 10.1 7.5 5.2 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
James Madison 4.2 14.0 17.1 16.0 13.7 11.4 8.7 6.5 4.7 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1
South Alabama 4.4 14.0 14.9 14.7 13.9 12.4 9.6 7.2 5.2 3.3 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
Appalachian St. 5.7 5.9 9.6 11.3 12.2 12.5 11.7 10.2 8.3 6.5 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.5
Marshall 6.9 3.0 5.5 7.5 9.1 10.4 11.4 11.4 10.5 9.2 7.7 6.0 4.5 2.9 1.0
Georgia Southern 7.9 1.0 2.8 4.7 6.5 8.2 9.9 11.3 11.7 11.2 10.1 8.3 6.9 5.3 2.2
Georgia St. 9.4 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.8 6.7 8.5 10.0 11.4 12.2 12.2 11.9 10.2 5.6
Coastal Carolina 9.3 0.3 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.8 8.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 11.8 11.6 10.1 5.5
Southern Miss 9.4 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.0 6.1 8.0 10.5 12.1 13.3 13.5 12.3 9.2 5.1
Louisiana 9.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.5 8.5 11.1 12.3 13.0 12.3 11.5 8.7 4.5
Old Dominion 9.9 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.1 6.7 8.5 10.4 12.0 13.2 14.3 14.9 6.5
Louisiana Monroe 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.9 7.4 12.4 21.1 47.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.6 9.2 13.8 16.8 18.0 15.7 10.1 4.8 1.1
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 6.4 9.7 13.9 15.8 16.3 14.1 9.9 5.2 2.1 0.3
Texas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.2 7.3 10.8 14.1 16.0 15.8 13.1 8.7 4.7 1.7 0.3
James Madison 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.8 9.0 12.6 15.3 16.5 14.5 10.9 6.2 2.6 0.6
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.5 9.9 13.7 15.9 15.5 13.5 9.6 5.6 2.6 0.7 0.1
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 7.3 10.8 13.6 15.3 14.8 12.9 8.9 5.3 2.3 0.7 0.1
Marshall 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 7.7 11.1 13.6 15.1 14.5 12.0 8.3 5.4 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.2 7.3 10.9 14.0 15.6 14.8 12.2 8.6 5.4 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 8.3 12.4 15.2 15.7 14.3 11.1 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.7 8.3 12.0 15.0 15.5 14.0 11.3 7.9 4.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.2 1.4 4.3 8.5 13.1 16.6 16.8 14.5 10.9 7.0 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.9 7.5 12.6 15.7 16.7 14.8 11.5 7.8 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 6 - 12 0.6 2.9 6.8 11.2 14.9 16.4 15.1 12.2 8.8 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4 - 14 3.4 10.4 17.0 20.0 17.5 13.8 9.0 4.9 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 41.9% 28.8 9.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Troy 24.8% 15.4 6.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 22.1% 13.4 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
James Madison 14.0% 7.2 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 14.0% 7.7 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 5.9% 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marshall 3.0% 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 14.6 8.8 1.5 0.1 72.4 0.0%
Troy 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.2 7.5 5.0 1.3 0.1 81.5 0.0%
Texas St. 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 83.9 0.0%
James Madison 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 4.0 1.2 0.1 87.2 0.0%
South Alabama 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.7 1.8 0.2 90.7 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.9 0.4 93.3 0.0%
Marshall 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.6 95.6 0.0%
Georgia Southern 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 98.4 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%
Louisiana 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 27.6% 0.0% 27.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 18.5% 0.0% 18.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 16.1% 0.0% 16.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 12.8% 0.0% 12.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.7% 0.1% 6.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 4.4% 0.2% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 11.3% 0.1 88.7 11.3
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0