Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Arkansas St. 0.0%   21 - 9 13 - 5 21 - 9 13 - 5 +5.8      +1.8 121 +3.9 76 72.7 60 +3.6 113 +2.4 3
112 Troy 34.4%   18 - 10 13 - 5 18 - 10 13 - 5 +3.1      -0.5 190 +3.5 80 65.8 242 +1.9 136 +3.2 1
129 South Alabama 0.0%   19 - 10 13 - 5 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.9      -0.2 178 +2.1 113 60.4 351 +1.2 148 +2.5 2
157 James Madison 50.3%   15   18 - 11 13 - 5 18 - 11 13 - 5 +0.3      +2.6 102 -2.3 239 63.4 308 +1.8 139 +2.4 4
168 Marshall 0.0%   17 - 12 12 - 6 17 - 12 12 - 6 -0.4      -0.4 186 -0.1 173 71.1 100 -0.9 175 +0.9 5
169 Appalachian St. 7.9%   15 - 13 10 - 8 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.5      -4.1 278 +3.6 78 60.6 350 -1.4 182 -2.9 7
198 Texas St. 3.7%   14 - 15 9 - 9 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.0      +2.3 109 -4.3 300 65.4 256 -2.3 200 -2.8 6
245 Georgia Southern 0.0%   15 - 15 8 - 10 15 - 15 8 - 10 -4.8      -2.3 235 -2.5 246 72.8 59 -3.4 223 -5.2 11
256 Georgia St. 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 10 12 - 18 8 - 10 -5.2      +0.3 167 -5.5 328 71.6 83 -5.7 259 -4.5 9
286 Southern Miss 0.0%   8 - 21 5 - 13 9 - 21 5 - 13 -7.1      -6.1 332 -1.0 203 75.5 27 -8.3 303 -8.9 12
296 Old Dominion 2.1%   10 - 19 8 - 10 10 - 19 8 - 10 -7.5      -3.9 273 -3.6 280 66.2 229 -7.3 284 -4.8 10
297 Louisiana 1.4%   10 - 20 8 - 10 11 - 20 8 - 10 -7.5      -5.9 324 -1.6 219 67.0 210 -6.2 266 -4.1 8
316 Coastal Carolina 0.0%   8 - 21 3 - 15 8 - 22 3 - 15 -9.1      -3.6 264 -5.5 327 60.7 347 -9.9 320 -13.2 14
341 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   5 - 24 3 - 15 5 - 25 3 - 15 -12.0      -6.9 338 -5.2 321 69.1 144 -12.9 343 -12.1 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 1.0 100.0
Troy 1.0 100.0
South Alabama 1.0 100.0
James Madison 1.0 100.0
Marshall 5.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 6.0 100.0
Texas St. 7.0 100.0
Georgia Southern 8.0 100.0
Georgia St. 8.0 100.0
Southern Miss 12.0 100.0
Old Dominion 8.0 100.0
Louisiana 8.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 13.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 100.0
Troy 13 - 5 100.0
South Alabama 13 - 5 100.0
James Madison 13 - 5 100.0
Marshall 12 - 6 100.0
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 100.0
Texas St. 9 - 9 100.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 100.0
Georgia St. 8 - 10 100.0
Southern Miss 5 - 13 100.0
Old Dominion 8 - 10 100.0
Louisiana 8 - 10 100.0
Coastal Carolina 3 - 15 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 100.0% 100.0
Troy 100.0% 100.0
South Alabama 100.0% 100.0
James Madison 100.0% 100.0
Marshall
Appalachian St.
Texas St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
Southern Miss
Old Dominion
Louisiana
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Troy 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 2.6 17.0 13.8 1.0 65.6 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
James Madison 50.3% 50.3% 0.0% 15   0.0 2.9 25.0 21.7 0.8 49.7 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Appalachian St. 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.3 3.6 3.7 0.2 92.1 0.0%
Texas St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.2 3.1 0.5 96.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Louisiana 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 34.4% 0.0% 34.4% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 50.3% 0.0% 50.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 98.1
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0