Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 James Madison 21.8%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 12 - 6 +4.1      +1.9 122 +2.2 108 72.7 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 Troy 13.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +2.1      +0.5 157 +1.6 126 72.7 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
134 Arkansas St. 13.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.9      +3.4 88 -1.5 223 69.4 143 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 Appalachian St. 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +1.4      -0.6 193 +2.0 112 67.2 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Louisiana 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +0.3      -0.6 190 +0.9 141 70.4 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Texas St. 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 9 -0.9      -1.6 225 +0.7 144 66.3 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Marshall 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -1.5      -0.8 198 -0.6 188 74.6 44 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Georgia St. 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -2.1      -0.2 172 -1.9 239 69.2 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Georgia Southern 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -2.4      -0.4 184 -2.1 242 71.1 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 South Alabama 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 -3.0      -1.5 222 -1.5 224 69.7 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 Old Dominion 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 8 - 10 -3.2      -2.0 244 -1.3 213 73.5 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Southern Miss 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -3.5      -2.3 252 -1.2 210 69.0 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 Coastal Carolina 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 6 - 12 -6.6      -3.1 273 -3.5 290 72.2 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 Louisiana Monroe 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -6.9      -3.8 293 -3.1 277 67.6 206 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 3.6 31.3 17.9 12.3 9.4 7.2 5.6 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4
Troy 5.0 15.8 13.7 12.2 10.6 9.1 7.8 7.1 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.1 2.7 1.7 0.9
Arkansas St. 4.9 16.8 13.8 11.9 10.4 9.3 8.0 6.8 5.9 4.9 4.1 3.2 2.5 1.6 0.9
Appalachian St. 5.2 15.3 12.7 11.7 10.7 9.2 8.0 7.2 6.0 5.2 4.3 3.7 2.7 2.0 1.3
Louisiana 5.7 12.0 11.8 10.8 9.7 9.2 8.4 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.1 4.5 3.7 2.7 1.9
Texas St. 6.8 7.5 7.7 8.4 8.8 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.6 7.3 6.5 5.6 4.7 3.2
Marshall 7.2 6.3 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.2 8.0 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.1 6.7 5.7 3.8
Georgia St. 7.3 5.6 6.4 7.2 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.2 6.5 5.7 3.9
Georgia Southern 7.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.0 6.3 4.6
South Alabama 8.0 3.9 5.1 6.0 6.3 7.1 7.5 8.1 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.6 6.0
Old Dominion 8.1 3.8 4.8 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.4 8.1 8.3 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 7.9 6.4
Southern Miss 8.4 2.8 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.7 7.1 8.0 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.4 8.5 6.8
Coastal Carolina 10.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.5 9.3 10.6 12.9 15.7 17.6
Louisiana Monroe 10.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.9 6.8 8.6 10.4 12.8 16.3 20.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.1 8.0 10.0 11.8 12.5 12.9 11.5 8.9 5.2 2.0
Troy 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.4 10.7 11.8 11.9 10.9 9.1 6.6 4.2 1.8 0.6
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.5 9.3 11.1 11.9 11.5 10.7 9.2 6.9 4.5 2.2 0.6
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.9 9.7 11.2 11.8 11.4 10.4 8.6 6.3 3.8 1.8 0.5
Louisiana 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.2 9.2 10.0 11.0 11.3 10.6 9.4 7.3 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.4
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 5.9 7.8 9.6 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.5 6.7 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2
Marshall 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 9.4 7.9 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Georgia St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.7 7.0 8.6 10.5 11.3 11.4 10.6 9.6 7.4 5.8 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.4 9.4 10.8 11.6 11.5 10.4 8.9 7.0 5.1 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.3 6.6 8.6 10.1 10.9 11.6 10.9 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Old Dominion 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.6 6.7 8.7 10.3 11.3 11.3 10.7 9.4 7.6 5.9 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1
Southern Miss 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.3 9.4 10.9 11.6 11.7 10.6 9.2 7.3 5.0 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6 - 12 1.4 4.3 7.1 10.4 12.2 12.7 12.3 10.9 8.8 7.1 5.1 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 6 - 12 1.9 5.1 8.4 10.7 12.6 12.7 11.9 10.0 8.4 6.2 4.8 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
James Madison 31.3% 21.5 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Troy 15.8% 9.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 16.8% 10.4 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 15.3% 9.6 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 12.0% 7.1 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 7.5% 4.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marshall 6.3% 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 5.6% 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 4.6% 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 3.9% 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 3.8% 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
James Madison 21.8% 21.2% 0.6% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 6.7 6.1 3.0 1.2 0.2 78.2 0.8%
Troy 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 3.6 4.0 2.8 1.2 0.3 86.4 0.3%
Arkansas St. 13.0% 12.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 87.0 0.4%
Appalachian St. 12.0% 11.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 88.0 0.2%
Louisiana 9.0% 8.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.8 2.0 1.0 0.3 91.0 0.2%
Texas St. 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 93.3 0.1%
Marshall 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 94.5 0.0%
Georgia St. 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.3 95.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 96.0 0.0%
South Alabama 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 96.5 0.0%
Old Dominion 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 96.8 0.0%
Southern Miss 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 97.2 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 21.8% 0.5% 21.6% 5.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 13.6% 0.3% 13.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 13.0% 0.3% 12.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 12.0% 0.3% 11.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 9.0% 0.2% 8.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.7% 0.2% 6.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 5.5% 0.2% 5.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 4.7% 0.2% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.0% 0.1% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 2.8% 0.2% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 97.9 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 17.2% 0.2 82.8 17.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0