Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Arkansas St. 23.5%   12   3 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +4.0      +1.3 134 +2.7 95 69.8 162 +11.7 37 0.0 1
113 James Madison 22.7%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 5 +3.7      +3.1 97 +0.6 147 72.7 85 +0.6 183 0.0 1
122 Troy 17.3%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +2.8      -0.4 186 +3.2 83 72.7 88 +6.3 87 0.0 1
179 Texas St. 6.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -0.9      -2.4 247 +1.5 126 66.3 270 -6.0 266 0.0 1
191 Marshall 6.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -1.5      -0.9 199 -0.5 186 74.6 60 -4.1 239 0.0 1
195 South Alabama 5.4%   2 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1.7      -1.8 225 +0.1 161 69.5 175 -0.9 209 0.0 1
198 Appalachian St. 5.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -1.9      -3.5 275 +1.6 125 67.2 249 -8.3 292 0.0 1
220 Georgia Southern 3.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.8      -0.6 192 -2.2 243 84.9 3 -0.2 193 0.0 1
227 Georgia St. 3.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.1      -1.7 221 -1.4 216 70.2 149 -3.5 230 0.0 1
247 Louisiana 2.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -4.3      -2.6 252 -1.7 231 70.4 146 -13.8 331 0.0 1
255 Southern Miss 1.9%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -4.8      -3.2 268 -1.6 225 84.2 4 -3.8 235 0.0 1
296 Coastal Carolina 0.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -7.1      -4.2 294 -2.9 271 61.8 346 -9.0 297 0.0 1
305 Old Dominion 0.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 18 6 - 12 -8.0      -3.5 277 -4.4 317 73.5 73 -15.4 347 0.0 1
323 Louisiana Monroe 0.3%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -9.0      -6.4 341 -2.6 260 68.6 206 -15.5 348 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 3.1 32.8 20.8 14.2 10.1 7.1 4.9 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
James Madison 3.1 34.2 20.9 13.6 9.3 6.5 5.0 3.6 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Troy 4.0 20.3 17.8 14.8 12.1 9.5 7.3 5.6 4.1 3.1 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2
Texas St. 6.1 7.8 8.7 9.6 10.5 10.2 9.7 9.3 7.8 7.1 6.3 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.3
Marshall 6.5 7.1 8.3 9.2 9.8 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 7.8 6.6 5.6 5.0 3.3 1.9
South Alabama 6.6 5.7 7.1 9.1 9.9 9.8 9.5 10.1 8.6 8.0 7.4 5.7 4.3 3.3 1.7
Appalachian St. 6.4 6.6 8.3 9.3 9.9 9.9 9.4 9.3 8.2 7.3 7.0 5.2 4.4 3.3 2.1
Georgia Southern 6.9 4.5 6.0 8.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 10.2 9.3 8.5 7.2 6.4 5.1 3.5 1.9
Georgia St. 7.2 3.8 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.2 9.8 9.4 8.7 8.6 8.4 7.2 5.9 4.7 2.5
Louisiana 8.2 2.3 3.8 5.4 6.4 7.3 7.5 9.0 9.1 9.7 9.9 9.5 8.3 6.7 5.1
Southern Miss 8.7 1.6 2.9 3.8 5.0 6.4 6.8 9.0 8.4 10.0 11.0 10.7 9.7 8.1 6.5
Coastal Carolina 10.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.8 6.4 7.5 9.7 10.4 11.6 13.5 14.4 11.9
Old Dominion 10.5 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.1 4.0 5.1 6.8 8.1 9.3 11.8 13.8 15.9 17.0
Louisiana Monroe 11.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.2 5.0 6.4 7.9 10.8 14.3 19.3 27.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.8 10.1 13.5 15.2 14.7 13.2 8.9 4.5 1.6
James Madison 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.8 5.1 7.5 10.0 12.7 14.2 14.8 12.8 10.4 5.0 1.7
Troy 12 - 6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.5 5.0 7.6 10.8 13.2 14.4 13.5 12.7 8.7 4.8 2.1 0.5
Texas St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.5 4.1 6.3 8.7 10.7 11.8 13.2 12.2 10.7 7.6 5.1 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
Marshall 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 3.2 4.7 7.2 8.8 11.3 11.6 12.1 11.8 9.5 7.2 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.8 7.3 9.7 11.1 13.4 12.8 11.5 10.0 6.6 4.4 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.3 9.2 11.3 11.7 13.3 11.5 9.3 7.4 5.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 5.5 7.7 10.0 12.5 13.2 12.7 11.6 8.7 6.0 3.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.3 8.8 10.9 12.1 12.6 12.7 10.6 7.5 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.2
Louisiana 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.8 4.0 5.9 8.8 11.0 12.9 12.2 12.1 10.0 7.8 5.7 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.0 4.1 7.5 10.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 11.3 8.7 6.5 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6 - 12 0.6 2.4 4.5 8.1 11.9 13.7 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.7 5.3 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 6 - 12 1.0 3.1 7.0 10.5 12.6 14.5 13.5 11.3 9.7 6.6 4.6 3.2 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 13 2.3 5.9 10.7 14.2 14.9 14.6 12.3 9.3 6.5 4.7 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 32.8% 22.1 7.8 2.2 0.6 0.1
James Madison 34.2% 22.9 8.4 2.3 0.5 0.1
Troy 20.3% 12.2 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
Texas St. 7.8% 4.1 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
Marshall 7.1% 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
South Alabama 5.7% 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1
Appalachian St. 6.6% 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
Georgia Southern 4.5% 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 3.8% 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Louisiana 2.3% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 1.6% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 23.5% 23.3% 0.2% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.2 9.2 7.3 3.0 0.7 0.1 76.5 0.3%
James Madison 22.7% 22.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.7 7.7 7.6 3.5 1.4 0.2 77.3 0.1%
Troy 17.3% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.2 6.5 3.6 0.8 0.1 82.7 0.1%
Texas St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 0.6 93.4 0.0%
Marshall 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.3 93.6 0.0%
South Alabama 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.4 94.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 94.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.3 96.4 0.0%
Georgia St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.5 96.5 0.0%
Louisiana 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 97.6 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 98.1 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 23.5% 0.2% 23.4% 4.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 22.7% 0.1% 22.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 17.3% 0.1% 17.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.6% 0.4% 6.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 6.4% 0.1% 6.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 5.4% 0.1% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.7% 0.4% 5.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 2.4% 0.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.6 0.3
2nd Round 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.9 3.2
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0