Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
96 Arkansas St. 33.3%   13   16 - 5 8 - 2 23 - 7 14 - 4 +5.6      +2.2 113 +3.3 88 71.4 97 +7.2 78 +6.4 1
113 Troy 17.1%   11 - 7 6 - 3 18 - 10 12 - 6 +3.1      +0.1 176 +3.0 95 66.4 234 +2.1 136 +2.7 2
134 James Madison 11.6%   10 - 9 5 - 4 17 - 12 12 - 6 +1.6      +1.5 140 +0.2 168 66.6 229 +1.8 140 +0.7 5
136 Appalachian St. 12.4%   10 - 9 6 - 4 16 - 12 12 - 6 +1.6      -2.3 236 +4.0 73 62.1 338 -0.2 173 -0.4 7
145 South Alabama 10.6%   12 - 7 6 - 3 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.2      -0.9 199 +2.1 112 62.1 339 +0.2 166 +1.5 3
167 Texas St. 6.5%   10 - 9 5 - 4 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.1      +2.2 115 -2.3 243 66.3 238 +0.1 168 +0.1 6
173 Marshall 6.8%   11 - 9 6 - 3 16 - 13 11 - 7 -0.4      -0.4 186 +0.1 173 70.6 121 -1.1 186 +1.3 4
251 Southern Miss 0.5%   7 - 13 4 - 6 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.1      -4.4 295 -0.6 193 72.9 67 -4.7 238 -3.2 9
255 Georgia Southern 0.6%   10 - 10 4 - 5 14 - 16 8 - 10 -5.4      -3.5 260 -2.0 232 74.5 43 -3.1 217 -5.6 10
270 Old Dominion 0.4%   8 - 12 6 - 4 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.1      -3.2 255 -2.9 260 66.4 235 -5.6 260 -0.7 8
292 Georgia St. 0.2%   6 - 14 3 - 6 10 - 20 6 - 12 -7.3      -2.3 231 -5.1 322 71.1 103 -8.0 295 -7.4 12
311 Louisiana 0.1%   5 - 15 4 - 5 7 - 23 6 - 12 -8.8      -4.8 300 -4.0 288 68.1 190 -9.4 309 -6.8 11
313 Coastal Carolina 0.0%   6 - 13 1 - 8 9 - 20 3 - 15 -9.1      -4.0 281 -5.1 323 61.2 345 -9.7 315 -17.4 14
330 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   3 - 17 1 - 8 4 - 25 2 - 16 -10.7      -6.8 342 -3.8 285 68.4 182 -15.0 348 -16.3 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 1.3 80.5 10.6 4.9 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Troy 3.0 17.2 29.0 19.6 14.5 10.0 5.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
James Madison 4.0 6.3 21.3 18.6 16.8 15.5 10.7 6.6 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 3.8 6.6 22.9 20.2 16.5 13.7 10.8 5.7 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
South Alabama 3.7 12.4 22.0 18.1 15.7 12.6 9.5 6.5 2.3 0.7 0.2
Texas St. 5.5 2.8 7.7 9.6 11.4 14.1 16.5 21.0 11.3 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
Marshall 4.4 7.8 15.1 15.4 14.5 15.0 15.2 10.0 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 9.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 8.8 19.5 28.3 24.5 9.4 3.9 0.4 0.0
Georgia Southern 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.9 8.4 18.1 24.7 23.2 12.6 5.5 0.3 0.0
Old Dominion 7.4 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.3 7.5 11.7 19.2 27.1 16.4 7.5 2.4 0.5
Georgia St. 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 6.3 11.5 20.2 32.3 21.3 4.7 0.6
Louisiana 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.6 9.1 16.3 30.8 34.7 3.7 0.2
Coastal Carolina 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 6.3 13.6 57.1 20.7
Louisiana Monroe 13.5 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.4 35.8 56.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.0 16.4 30.2 31.1 14.5
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.2 16.0 28.4 28.8 15.4 3.5
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.9 12.4 23.2 28.4 22.0 7.5
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 0.1 1.2 4.5 11.0 22.6 28.8 23.6 8.2
South Alabama 12 - 6 0.1 1.0 4.1 10.9 21.3 26.4 22.4 11.6 2.2
Texas St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.4 16.3 24.0 24.2 17.1 7.1 1.6
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.4 2.3 8.0 16.7 24.9 24.7 15.6 6.3 1.0
Southern Miss 8 - 10 0.7 4.5 14.1 24.8 28.4 18.3 7.7 1.4 0.1
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 1.0 5.7 15.6 25.0 25.4 16.8 7.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
Old Dominion 9 - 9 2.5 10.9 22.3 26.3 21.1 12.0 4.1 0.7 0.1
Georgia St. 6 - 12 2.2 10.9 21.5 27.2 21.0 11.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 16.3 29.0 26.9 17.5 7.3 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3 - 15 7.3 20.8 29.7 23.6 12.5 5.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 2 - 16 20.8 34.3 27.3 12.7 4.0 0.8 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 80.5% 60.3 14.1 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Troy 17.2% 5.9 7.0 3.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
James Madison 6.3% 1.1 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 6.6% 1.0 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 12.4% 4.2 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 2.8% 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 7.8% 2.3 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 13   0.0 2.8 19.2 10.1 1.0 0.0 66.8 0.0%
Troy 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 7.5 5.8 1.1 0.1 82.9 0.0%
James Madison 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 4.3 4.6 1.3 0.1 88.4 0.0%
Appalachian St. 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 3.7 5.6 2.2 0.2 87.6 0.0%
South Alabama 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.7 1.5 0.0 89.4 0.0%
Texas St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.9 0.2 93.5 0.0%
Marshall 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 2.5 3.0 0.5 93.2 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 4.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 17.1% 0.0% 17.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 11.6% 0.0% 11.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 12.4% 0.0% 12.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 10.6% 0.0% 10.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0