Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#236
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#156
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#252
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 31.9% 39.5% 16.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 45.0% 28.9%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 9.1% 16.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round2.7% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 49 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 73-69 66%    
  Nov 07, 2024 88   @ UAB L 67-80 10%    
  Nov 20, 2024 178   @ South Dakota St. L 69-75 30%    
  Nov 24, 2024 149   @ Montana St. L 69-76 26%    
  Nov 25, 2024 184   Abilene Christian L 70-73 41%    
  Nov 30, 2024 200   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-75 54%    
  Dec 05, 2024 293   Alabama St. W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 10, 2024 175   @ Tulane L 75-81 30%    
  Dec 14, 2024 40   Mississippi L 65-79 11%    
  Dec 17, 2024 283   Lamar W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 21, 2024 194   Marshall W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 02, 2025 107   @ James Madison L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 04, 2025 227   @ Old Dominion L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 09, 2025 296   Louisiana Monroe W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 185   Texas St. W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 15, 2025 223   @ South Alabama L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 185   @ Texas St. L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 23, 2025 129   @ Troy L 68-77 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   @ Louisiana L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 29, 2025 134   Arkansas St. L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 209   Georgia Southern W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 139   @ Appalachian St. L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 12, 2025 134   @ Arkansas St. L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 20, 2025 291   Coastal Carolina W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 156   Louisiana L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 223   South Alabama W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 129   Troy L 71-74 42%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.1 1.4 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 1.7 0.1 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.5 13th
14th 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.8 14th
Total 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.3 9.4 10.9 11.6 11.7 10.6 9.2 7.3 5.0 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 67.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.2% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 46.0% 26.0% 20.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.0%
17-1 0.2% 37.5% 29.4% 8.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.4%
16-2 0.5% 30.7% 30.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.2% 23.3% 23.1% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3%
14-4 2.1% 15.8% 15.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-5 3.6% 12.7% 12.6% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2 0.0%
12-6 5.0% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6
11-7 7.3% 5.0% 5.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.9
10-8 9.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9
9-9 10.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.4
8-10 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 11.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.6
6-12 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 7.3% 7.3
3-15 5.0% 5.0
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%