Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#244
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#235
Pace72.9#68
Improvement+2.8#66

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#293
First Shot-4.0#293
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#214
Layup/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows-1.7#286
Improvement-1.0#244

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#188
First Shot+0.0#182
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#232
Layups/Dunks-2.0#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows-0.7#236
Improvement+3.7#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 3.8% 10.0% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 35.1% 60.9% 26.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 49 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 299   Bowling Green W 77-68 70%     1 - 0 -1.4 -5.1 +3.2
  Nov 07, 2024 101   @ UAB L 84-98 14%     1 - 1 -7.2 +0.4 -5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 115   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 17%     1 - 2 -19.5 -7.8 -7.3
  Nov 24, 2024 192   @ Montana St. L 59-79 28%     1 - 3 -18.6 -15.4 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 232   Abilene Christian L 74-82 47%     1 - 4 -12.1 +6.8 -19.3
  Nov 30, 2024 129   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 34%     2 - 4 +0.3 -1.2 +1.6
  Dec 05, 2024 307   Alabama St. W 81-64 73%     3 - 4 +5.8 -2.3 +7.2
  Dec 10, 2024 132   @ Tulane L 58-86 20%     3 - 5 -23.8 -13.3 -10.4
  Dec 14, 2024 23   Mississippi L 46-77 4%     3 - 6 -16.1 -13.7 -5.4
  Dec 17, 2024 229   Lamar L 65-69 55%     3 - 7 -10.3 -7.2 -3.1
  Dec 21, 2024 174   Marshall W 68-66 43%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -0.9 +7.7 -8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 134   @ James Madison L 72-83 20%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -6.9 +3.2 -10.5
  Jan 04, 2025 282   @ Old Dominion L 71-74 47%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -7.1 -1.4 -5.8
  Jan 09, 2025 330   Louisiana Monroe W 84-67 79%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +3.8 -3.6 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 166   Texas St. W 92-88 OT 41%     6 - 9 3 - 2 +1.4 -0.3 +1.0
  Jan 15, 2025 144   @ South Alabama L 62-75 21%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -9.2 -8.0 -1.0
  Jan 18, 2025 166   @ Texas St. L 82-85 OT 24%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -0.5 -1.0 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 309   @ Louisiana W 67-59 55%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +1.8 -5.5 +7.6
  Jan 27, 2025 113   @ Troy L 61-70 16%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -3.3 -10.7 +7.8
  Jan 29, 2025 95   Arkansas St. L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 256   Georgia Southern W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 124   @ Appalachian St. L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   @ Ball St. L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 12, 2025 95   @ Arkansas St. L 67-80 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 330   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 314   Coastal Carolina W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 309   Louisiana W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 144   South Alabama L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 28, 2025 113   Troy L 68-73 32%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.1 0.9 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.8 4.6 0.2 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 11.1 11.2 1.8 26.4 8th
9th 0.9 9.7 11.9 2.7 0.1 25.2 9th
10th 0.3 5.6 9.3 2.2 0.0 17.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.5 4.2 1.3 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.5 3.8 11.6 22.6 26.4 20.7 10.4 3.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 58.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
10-8 10.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.1 0.1 10.3
9-9 20.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 20.5
8-10 26.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 26.3
7-11 22.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.5
6-12 11.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.5
5-13 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%