Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#283
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#265
Pace72.4#91
Improvement+0.0#180

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#320
First Shot-3.6#286
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#275
Layup/Dunks-1.2#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows-1.1#252
Improvement-0.9#255

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#215
First Shot+0.0#170
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#295
Layups/Dunks-2.6#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#114
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement+0.8#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 5.0% 8.6% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 20.7% 31.7% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.1% 8.9% 22.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 77-68 58%     1 - 0 +0.3 -5.7 +5.5
  Nov 07, 2024 129   @ UAB L 84-98 14%     1 - 1 -9.1 +0.4 -7.8
  Nov 20, 2024 123   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 13%     1 - 2 -19.5 -7.6 -7.5
  Nov 24, 2024 141   @ Montana St. L 59-79 16%     1 - 3 -16.1 -15.3 -0.1
  Nov 25, 2024 207   Abilene Christian L 74-82 33%     1 - 4 -10.1 +4.6 -15.1
  Nov 30, 2024 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 32%     2 - 4 -0.8 -3.3 +2.6
  Dec 05, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 81-64 63%     3 - 4 +6.8 -2.5 +8.4
  Dec 10, 2024 203   @ Tulane L 58-86 23%     3 - 5 -27.0 -14.7 -12.1
  Dec 14, 2024 27   Mississippi L 46-77 4%     3 - 6 -17.7 -17.0 -3.7
  Dec 17, 2024 175   Lamar L 65-69 39%     3 - 7 -7.9 -6.7 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 190   Marshall L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 02, 2025 115   @ James Madison L 66-79 11%    
  Jan 04, 2025 315   @ Old Dominion L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 139   Texas St. L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 202   @ South Alabama L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 139   @ Texas St. L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 23, 2025 125   @ Troy L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 291   @ Louisiana L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 109   Arkansas St. L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 234   Georgia Southern W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 173   @ Appalachian St. L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 12, 2025 109   @ Arkansas St. L 66-80 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 20, 2025 268   Coastal Carolina W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   Louisiana W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 202   South Alabama L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 28, 2025 125   Troy L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.2 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.7 1.1 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.3 2.1 0.1 12.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 13.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.2 13th
14th 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.6 14th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.8 11.3 14.2 15.4 14.9 12.1 9.1 5.7 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 77.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 59.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 9.0% 9.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
11-7 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
10-8 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.5 0.1 0.0 5.6
9-9 9.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
8-10 12.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
7-11 14.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.9
6-12 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
5-13 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-14 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
3-15 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-16 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%