Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#194
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Pace65.0#266
Improvement+2.2#97

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#252
First Shot-7.4#349
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#10
Layup/Dunks-2.9#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#296
Freethrows-3.5#352
Improvement+1.1#127

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#143
First Shot+0.9#146
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks+0.8#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#75
Freethrows-2.2#322
Improvement+1.1#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 13.8% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 97.8% 100.0% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round11.6% 13.7% 8.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 34 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 4%     0 - 1 -7.5 +7.6 -14.3
  Nov 17, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 52%     0 - 2 -15.4 +0.2 -16.2
  Nov 22, 2024 102   @ Akron L 72-79 20%     0 - 3 -0.1 -2.9 +3.3
  Nov 23, 2024 311   Alabama St. L 75-77 74%     0 - 4 -10.7 +0.0 -10.8
  Nov 24, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 49%     0 - 5 -7.6 -13.1 +5.1
  Dec 05, 2024 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 41%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +4.4 -4.5 +9.0
  Dec 07, 2024 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-52 54%     2 - 5 2 - 0 +29.1 +13.7 +16.8
  Dec 14, 2024 289   @ Louisiana W 74-45 60%     3 - 5 +24.5 +10.0 +18.3
  Dec 17, 2024 280   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 58%     4 - 5 -0.1 -1.9 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 10   @ Texas Tech L 57-101 3%     4 - 6 -23.0 -6.4 -17.3
  Jan 04, 2025 295   Houston Christian W 63-61 78%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -8.0 -12.0 +4.1
  Jan 06, 2025 281   Incarnate Word W 72-58 76%     6 - 6 4 - 0 +4.8 -0.8 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin L 63-72 70%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -16.4 -4.2 -12.8
  Jan 13, 2025 353   New Orleans L 62-68 90%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -21.7 -14.4 -7.8
  Jan 18, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 64-75 15%     6 - 9 4 - 3 -1.8 +2.1 -5.1
  Jan 20, 2025 192   @ Nicholls St. W 78-74 40%     7 - 9 5 - 3 +4.7 +5.7 -1.0
  Jan 25, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 61-58 OT 87%     8 - 9 6 - 3 -11.0 -19.1 +7.9
  Jan 27, 2025 272   Northwestern St. W 69-59 75%     9 - 9 7 - 3 +1.2 +3.1 -0.5
  Feb 01, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 52%     10 - 9 8 - 3 +2.7 -0.1 +3.0
  Feb 03, 2025 213   @ SE Louisiana L 79-81 43%     10 - 10 8 - 4 -2.1 +9.0 -11.2
  Feb 08, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-68 72%     11 - 10 9 - 4 -6.0 -3.4 -2.5
  Feb 10, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-56 61%     12 - 10 10 - 4 +6.3 -0.6 +8.0
  Feb 15, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 65-55 75%     13 - 10 11 - 4 +1.0 -7.1 +8.6
  Feb 17, 2025 272   @ Northwestern St. W 75-65 57%     14 - 10 12 - 4 +6.2 +14.3 -6.4
  Feb 22, 2025 295   @ Houston Christian W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 24, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 86   McNeese St. L 64-70 31%    
  Mar 03, 2025 192   Nicholls St. W 71-68 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 8.8 32.6 26.9 7.1 75.5 2nd
3rd 1.4 11.7 4.5 17.7 3rd
4th 3.4 2.4 5.8 4th
5th 0.6 0.6 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.5 23.0 37.1 26.9 7.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 4.9% 0.4    0.0 0.3
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.5% 18.8% 18.8% 13.9 0.3 0.9 0.2 6.1
15-5 26.9% 15.8% 15.8% 14.7 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.3 22.7
14-6 37.1% 12.5% 12.5% 15.1 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.1 32.5
13-7 23.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 21.7
12-8 5.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.4
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.4 3.0 6.4 2.0 88.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 13.9 20.6 64.5 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 2.2%