Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#119
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#171
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 22.4% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 2.6% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.2 11.4 12.7
.500 or above 59.2% 79.0% 53.1%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 82.9% 69.0%
Conference Champion 18.5% 27.0% 15.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.9% 4.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
First Round14.9% 21.8% 12.8%
Second Round3.5% 6.3% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 47 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   @ Nevada L 65-73 24%    
  Nov 09, 2024 221   @ Tarleton St. W 71-68 61%    
  Nov 12, 2024 9   @ Baylor L 63-79 7%    
  Nov 17, 2024 283   @ Lamar W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 27, 2024 139   Appalachian St. W 69-68 55%    
  Nov 29, 2024 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-69 49%    
  Nov 30, 2024 171   Colgate W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 03, 2024 20   @ Indiana L 65-78 13%    
  Dec 07, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 75-64 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 64-74 21%    
  Jan 02, 2025 161   @ New Mexico St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 152   @ UTEP L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 110   Liberty W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 275   Florida International W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 16, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 197   Middle Tennessee W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 108   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 06, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 110   @ Liberty L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 197   @ Middle Tennessee W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 108   Louisiana Tech W 69-67 56%    
  Mar 06, 2025 152   UTEP W 73-68 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 161   New Mexico St. W 72-66 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.6 4.8 3.3 1.7 0.4 18.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 4.6 5.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.0 8.5 10.0 10.9 11.2 11.1 9.8 8.0 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 96.1% 3.3    3.0 0.3
15-3 83.6% 4.8    3.6 1.2 0.0
14-4 57.3% 4.6    2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.0% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
12-6 7.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 12.4 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 79.7% 58.8% 20.9% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 50.7%
17-1 1.7% 67.8% 53.7% 14.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 30.4%
16-2 3.4% 51.3% 44.1% 7.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 12.8%
15-3 5.7% 38.5% 35.6% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 4.5%
14-4 8.0% 29.0% 28.3% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.7 1.0%
13-5 9.8% 22.6% 22.5% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.6 0.1%
12-6 11.1% 16.5% 16.4% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.0%
11-7 11.2% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.9 0.0%
10-8 10.9% 8.5% 8.5% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.0
9-9 10.0% 5.8% 5.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.4
8-10 8.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.2
7-11 7.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
6-12 5.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.0
5-13 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.2% 14.4% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.1 4.8 3.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 84.8 1.0%