Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#24
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#32
Pace64.1#290
Improvement+0.2#180

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#12
First Shot+7.1#27
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#24
Layup/Dunks+1.7#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows-2.1#302
Improvement-2.0#284

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#52
First Shot+4.0#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#81
Layups/Dunks+11.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#343
Freethrows+1.0#108
Improvement+2.2#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 7.3% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 27.6% 32.7% 13.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.1% 95.8% 85.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.9% 95.6% 85.3%
Average Seed 7.6 7.3 8.4
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 98.5% 81.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.8% 4.0% 10.8%
First Round91.0% 94.2% 81.8%
Second Round57.3% 61.1% 46.5%
Sweet Sixteen20.4% 22.8% 13.9%
Elite Eight8.4% 9.3% 5.8%
Final Four3.2% 3.6% 2.1%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 102 - 10
Quad 1b5 - 16 - 11
Quad 25 - 112 - 13
Quad 33 - 015 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 30%     0 - 1 -17.1 -2.4 -14.5
  Nov 09, 2024 35   Arkansas W 72-67 60%     1 - 1 +17.8 +13.3 +4.9
  Nov 12, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 94%     2 - 1 +34.6 +24.6 +8.3
  Nov 17, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +54.1 +30.4 +23.2
  Nov 21, 2024 14   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 40%     4 - 1 +18.9 +17.7 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 5   Tennessee L 62-77 33%     4 - 2 +4.9 +10.9 -8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 353   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +15.3 +17.6 +0.3
  Dec 04, 2024 32   @ Connecticut L 72-76 45%     5 - 3 +12.7 +16.4 -4.3
  Dec 09, 2024 211   Abilene Christian W 88-57 96%     6 - 3 +25.8 +22.1 +5.7
  Dec 11, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 94-69 95%     7 - 3 +21.3 +18.4 +2.9
  Dec 31, 2024 68   Utah W 81-56 82%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +30.7 +4.0 +24.5
  Jan 04, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 55-74 29%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +2.2 -2.2 +3.0
  Jan 07, 2025 46   Cincinnati W 68-48 74%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +28.7 +13.0 +19.0
  Jan 11, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 72-66 OT 67%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +16.9 +6.4 +10.5
  Jan 14, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 70-81 29%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +10.3 +11.2 -1.4
  Jan 19, 2025 64   TCU L 71-74 82%     10 - 6 3 - 3 +2.8 +7.2 -4.4
  Jan 22, 2025 56   Kansas St. W 70-62 76%     11 - 6 4 - 3 +16.0 +16.8 +1.0
  Jan 25, 2025 68   @ Utah W 76-61 67%     12 - 6 5 - 3 +25.8 +18.6 +9.2
  Jan 28, 2025 26   @ BYU L 89-93 OT 42%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +13.4 +22.5 -9.1
  Feb 01, 2025 19   Kansas W 81-70 57%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +24.6 +10.7 +13.1
  Feb 04, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech L 59-73 30%     13 - 8 6 - 5 +7.0 -1.4 +7.4
  Feb 08, 2025 81   Central Florida W 91-76 85%     14 - 8 7 - 5 +19.5 +21.4 -1.4
  Feb 10, 2025 3   @ Houston L 65-76 18%     14 - 9 7 - 6 +14.0 +18.4 -6.8
  Feb 15, 2025 41   West Virginia W 74-71 OT 71%     15 - 9 8 - 6 +12.5 +5.6 +6.8
  Feb 17, 2025 8   Arizona L 67-74 47%     15 - 10 8 - 7 +9.2 +4.9 +4.1
  Feb 22, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati W 70-68 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 81-69 88%    
  Mar 04, 2025 64   @ TCU W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   Houston L 64-68 35%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 3.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.2 8.4 22.7 5.4 36.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.8 17.7 6.2 0.1 26.7 6th
7th 0.2 7.6 7.5 0.3 15.5 7th
8th 1.2 6.9 1.2 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 1.9 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 0.2 2.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.5 5.5 19.5 34.8 30.9 8.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 8.9% 99.9% 7.5% 92.4% 4.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 30.9% 99.4% 4.7% 94.7% 6.6 0.0 0.6 1.6 4.1 7.5 9.4 5.7 1.6 0.2 0.2 99.4%
11-9 34.8% 97.4% 3.1% 94.3% 7.9 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.7 9.5 8.1 3.8 0.5 0.9 97.3%
10-10 19.5% 86.2% 1.8% 84.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.9 4.0 5.4 4.0 0.1 2.7 85.9%
9-11 5.5% 51.7% 1.3% 50.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 0.3 2.6 51.1%
8-12 0.5% 17.0% 17.0% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 17.0%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.1% 3.6% 89.5% 7.6 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.8 8.2 13.6 17.9 17.2 14.0 9.8 6.2 0.5 6.9 92.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 2.5 4.5 47.8 38.8 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 3.9 2.6 28.9 48.7 15.8 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4% 100.0% 4.7 0.8 10.9 33.1 36.0 14.2 5.0
Lose Out 0.2% 4.8% 12.0 4.8