Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#11
Expected Predictive Rating+19.5#6
Pace64.9#302
Improvement+3.2#3

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#5
First Shot+10.0#9
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#139
Layup/Dunks+1.1#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#45
Freethrows+1.2#125
Improvement+1.6#20

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#36
First Shot+5.7#37
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#170
Layups/Dunks+6.4#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#226
Freethrows+5.1#7
Improvement+1.5#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.5% 4.6% 1.9%
#1 Seed 15.0% 19.1% 9.3%
Top 2 Seed 31.6% 38.7% 21.8%
Top 4 Seed 59.8% 68.3% 48.0%
Top 6 Seed 75.3% 83.0% 64.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.4% 94.7% 84.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.2% 93.9% 82.9%
Average Seed 4.1 3.6 4.7
.500 or above 93.5% 97.0% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 88.4% 79.8%
Conference Champion 13.7% 16.3% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four3.8% 2.5% 5.5%
First Round88.8% 93.7% 82.0%
Second Round74.8% 81.1% 66.2%
Sweet Sixteen46.8% 52.8% 38.4%
Elite Eight25.2% 29.6% 19.2%
Final Four13.1% 15.6% 9.6%
Championship Game6.6% 8.1% 4.6%
National Champion3.3% 4.1% 2.1%

Next Game: St. John's (Neutral) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 21%     0 - 1 -13.1 -1.5 -11.4
  Nov 09, 2024 27   Arkansas W 72-67 62%     1 - 1 +18.4 +12.1 +6.7
  Nov 12, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 92%     2 - 1 +37.5 +25.6 +10.3
  Nov 17, 2024 317   Tarleton St. W 104-41 99%     3 - 1 +51.5 +26.0 +24.9
  Nov 21, 2024 16   St. John's W 75-73 58%    
  Nov 27, 2024 358   New Orleans W 92-58 99.9%   
  Dec 04, 2024 2   @ Connecticut L 67-74 27%    
  Dec 09, 2024 209   Abilene Christian W 82-60 98%    
  Dec 11, 2024 206   Norfolk St. W 82-60 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 54   Utah W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 07, 2025 18   Cincinnati W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 19, 2025 60   TCU W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 22, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 54   @ Utah W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 34   @ BYU W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 6   Kansas W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 71   Central Florida W 78-66 84%    
  Feb 10, 2025 4   @ Houston L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 76   West Virginia W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 17, 2025 13   Arizona W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 70   @ Colorado W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 81-68 87%    
  Mar 04, 2025 60   @ TCU W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 4   Houston W 67-66 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 4.1 2.7 1.1 0.3 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.8 4.1 1.4 0.2 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.3 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.1 8.2 10.4 12.1 12.9 12.3 10.6 8.6 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 94.1% 2.7    2.3 0.4 0.0
17-3 74.2% 4.1    2.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 42.3% 3.6    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.9% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 8.0 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.2 0.9 0.2 100.0%
18-2 2.9% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.4 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.6% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.7 3.8 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.6% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 2.2 2.6 4.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.3% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.8 1.3 3.5 4.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.9% 100.0% 8.5% 91.4% 3.6 0.4 1.9 4.0 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.1% 99.9% 5.8% 94.1% 4.5 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.4 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 10.4% 99.3% 3.4% 95.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.3%
10-10 8.2% 94.7% 2.0% 92.7% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 94.6%
9-11 6.1% 72.4% 2.0% 70.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.7 71.9%
8-12 4.1% 36.4% 0.7% 35.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.6 36.0%
7-13 2.5% 9.9% 0.4% 9.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 9.5%
6-14 1.4% 2.2% 0.4% 1.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.8%
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 90.4% 11.5% 78.9% 4.1 15.0 16.6 15.5 12.7 9.3 6.3 3.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 9.6 89.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0