Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#28
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#17
Pace68.0#211
Improvement-1.6#286

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#18
First Shot+4.3#63
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#14
Layup/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-1.1#275

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#52
First Shot+4.0#67
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#88
Layups/Dunks+8.4#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#289
Freethrows+1.5#77
Improvement-0.5#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.9% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.2% 10.9% 4.3%
Top 4 Seed 28.7% 38.3% 21.4%
Top 6 Seed 52.5% 63.4% 44.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.2% 90.1% 77.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.8% 89.9% 77.6%
Average Seed 5.9 5.3 6.3
.500 or above 95.5% 98.4% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.0% 59.1% 48.3%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 3.7% 5.9%
First Four5.3% 3.8% 6.5%
First Round80.6% 88.1% 74.8%
Second Round56.1% 65.0% 49.3%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 31.8% 21.3%
Elite Eight10.6% 13.6% 8.4%
Final Four4.2% 5.5% 3.2%
Championship Game1.6% 2.1% 1.2%
National Champion0.5% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 213 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 341   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +20.6 +11.4 +7.8
  Nov 08, 2024 263   Georgia St. W 101-66 97%     2 - 0 +26.4 +18.0 +6.2
  Nov 12, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 80-59 96%     3 - 0 +14.4 +4.5 +9.3
  Nov 17, 2024 66   Utah W 78-73 68%     4 - 0 +13.5 +7.4 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 49   @ SMU W 84-79 50%     5 - 0 +18.3 +16.0 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2024 108   UNLV W 80-58 81%     6 - 0 +26.0 +12.9 +14.3
  Nov 29, 2024 74   Butler L 77-87 71%     6 - 1 -2.5 +4.0 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2024 33   Pittsburgh W 90-57 65%     7 - 1 +42.4 +24.6 +19.0
  Dec 08, 2024 337   Prairie View W 91-84 99%     8 - 1 -7.2 +10.0 -17.0
  Dec 14, 2024 92   McNeese St. W 66-63 75%     9 - 1 +9.1 +1.5 +7.8
  Dec 17, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 83-59 93%     10 - 1 +20.7 +18.2 +4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 77-79 43%    
  Dec 30, 2024 262   Bethune-Cookman W 84-62 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 69   South Carolina W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 9   Kentucky L 81-82 47%    
  Jan 14, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-85 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 27   Mississippi W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 8   Alabama L 82-83 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 55   Missouri W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 32   @ Georgia L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 11, 2025 7   Florida L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 27   @ Mississippi L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 79-86 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 56   LSU W 79-72 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 31   Texas W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 75-78 41%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 3.9 0.8 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.9 1.5 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.9 3.2 0.2 9.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 4.7 0.8 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.2 2.3 0.1 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.0 0.4 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 4.6 1.2 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.7 0.2 0.0 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.5 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.0 4.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 3.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.4 14.3 14.7 13.1 10.6 7.3 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 90.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 59.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 30.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 0.8% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.0% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.2% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 2.5 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.3% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 3.2 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.6% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 4.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.1% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 14.7% 99.8% 1.4% 98.4% 5.8 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 14.3% 97.4% 0.6% 96.8% 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.6 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 97.4%
7-11 12.4% 84.7% 0.3% 84.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 0.1 1.9 84.7%
6-12 9.0% 53.1% 0.2% 53.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 0.3 4.2 53.0%
5-13 5.8% 16.2% 16.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 4.9 16.2%
4-14 3.2% 1.2% 1.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.2%
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 83.2% 2.1% 81.1% 5.9 1.8 5.3 9.9 11.6 12.6 11.1 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.3 4.9 0.6 16.8 82.8%