Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#23
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#16
Pace68.7#178
Improvement+1.0#143

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#19
First Shot+5.9#43
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#24
Layup/Dunks+3.8#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-0.4#202
Improvement+0.3#160

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#41
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#121
Layups/Dunks+8.8#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#263
Freethrows+0.8#124
Improvement+0.7#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.6% 5.4% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 10.5% 19.6% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 47.8% 64.2% 41.9%
Top 6 Seed 79.8% 91.1% 75.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.8% 99.6% 97.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 99.6% 97.0%
Average Seed 4.8 4.0 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 88.6% 68.2%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.3% 0.2% 1.7%
First Round97.1% 99.5% 96.2%
Second Round76.0% 83.4% 73.3%
Sweet Sixteen38.7% 45.8% 36.1%
Elite Eight14.6% 17.6% 13.4%
Final Four5.8% 7.2% 5.2%
Championship Game2.1% 2.6% 1.8%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.7%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 8
Quad 25 - 215 - 10
Quad 32 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 349   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +19.7 +10.8 +7.5
  Nov 08, 2024 280   Georgia St. W 101-66 98%     2 - 0 +25.3 +16.9 +6.2
  Nov 12, 2024 220   SE Louisiana W 80-59 96%     3 - 0 +15.0 +3.3 +11.0
  Nov 17, 2024 69   Utah W 78-73 75%     4 - 0 +13.1 +7.3 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 37   @ SMU W 84-79 50%     5 - 0 +20.0 +16.1 +3.9
  Nov 28, 2024 99   UNLV W 80-58 83%     6 - 0 +26.9 +13.4 +14.8
  Nov 29, 2024 84   Butler L 77-87 79%     6 - 1 -3.3 +3.7 -6.7
  Dec 04, 2024 40   Pittsburgh W 90-57 72%     7 - 1 +42.0 +23.1 +20.1
  Dec 08, 2024 330   Prairie View W 91-84 99%     8 - 1 -6.4 +13.0 -19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 74   McNeese St. W 66-63 77%     9 - 1 +10.5 +2.7 +8.0
  Dec 17, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 83-59 95%     10 - 1 +20.3 +18.1 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2024 43   @ Memphis W 79-66 53%     11 - 1 +27.3 +11.1 +15.8
  Dec 30, 2024 255   Bethune-Cookman W 87-73 97%     12 - 1 +5.9 +14.6 -8.6
  Jan 04, 2025 82   South Carolina W 85-50 85%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +39.1 +17.4 +22.4
  Jan 07, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt W 76-64 56%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +25.5 +11.6 +14.3
  Jan 11, 2025 15   Kentucky L 90-95 55%     14 - 2 2 - 1 +8.8 +14.2 -5.1
  Jan 14, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 66-88 16%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +3.8 +1.5 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 19   Mississippi W 84-81 OT 59%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +15.8 +13.1 +2.6
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 67-73 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 82   @ South Carolina W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 7   Alabama L 83-85 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 29   Missouri W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   @ Georgia L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Florida L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 19   @ Mississippi L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 21   Texas A&M W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 45   @ Oklahoma W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 81-88 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 63   LSU W 79-70 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 38   Texas W 77-71 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 46   @ Arkansas W 75-74 54%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.3 2.3 0.2 7.9 3rd
4th 0.3 4.4 4.1 0.4 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 6.2 1.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 1.1 6.8 3.6 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.3 4.3 6.5 0.8 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 7.0 2.6 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.7 4.7 0.3 10.2 9th
10th 0.1 2.5 4.5 0.8 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.6 1.4 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.1 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 8.4 12.9 18.0 19.5 16.3 11.3 5.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 61.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.6% 0.7    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 1.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.3% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 1.8 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.8% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.4 0.8 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.3% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 3.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 2.6 0.5 100.0%
11-7 16.3% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 3.7 0.2 1.3 5.5 6.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 19.5% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 4.4 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.8 6.6 2.5 0.2 100.0%
9-9 18.0% 100.0% 1.3% 98.7% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 6.8 5.1 1.7 0.2 100.0%
8-10 12.9% 99.8% 0.9% 98.8% 6.4 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.2 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.8%
7-11 8.4% 95.6% 0.5% 95.1% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 95.6%
6-12 3.5% 78.0% 0.3% 77.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.8 78.0%
5-13 1.3% 40.9% 0.8% 40.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.8 40.5%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.8% 3.3% 94.5% 4.8 2.6 7.9 17.4 19.9 18.9 13.0 7.2 4.9 3.0 1.6 1.2 0.1 2.3 97.7%