Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#29
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#22
Pace72.4#94
Improvement-0.5#238

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#36
First Shot+5.1#53
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#100
Layup/Dunks+3.6#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows-0.9#231
Improvement-1.3#339

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#27
First Shot+5.4#44
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#118
Layups/Dunks+7.0#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#85
Freethrows-0.9#232
Improvement+0.8#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.2% 4.6% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 8.5% 11.5% 4.8%
Top 4 Seed 25.5% 32.6% 16.4%
Top 6 Seed 43.7% 52.5% 32.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.3% 81.3% 63.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.1% 80.2% 62.0%
Average Seed 5.9 5.6 6.5
.500 or above 88.5% 94.2% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.2% 68.0% 54.6%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.6% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.5% 5.1%
First Four4.6% 4.2% 5.1%
First Round71.1% 79.2% 60.7%
Second Round48.7% 56.1% 39.2%
Sweet Sixteen23.7% 28.7% 17.4%
Elite Eight10.2% 12.5% 7.4%
Final Four4.4% 5.4% 3.0%
Championship Game1.8% 2.3% 1.1%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 353   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +18.8 +9.7 +7.6
  Nov 08, 2024 223   Georgia St. W 101-66 95%     2 - 0 +28.9 +18.7 +7.9
  Nov 12, 2024 271   SE Louisiana W 80-59 97%     3 - 0 +12.3 +1.0 +10.7
  Nov 17, 2024 54   Utah W 78-73 64%     4 - 0 +14.3 +7.2 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 68   @ SMU W 80-78 56%    
  Nov 28, 2024 97   UNLV W 77-69 76%    
  Dec 04, 2024 25   Pittsburgh W 75-73 59%    
  Dec 08, 2024 348   Prairie View W 92-63 99.5%   
  Dec 14, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 75-68 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 202   Central Michigan W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 21, 2024 33   @ Memphis L 78-80 42%    
  Dec 30, 2024 286   Bethune-Cookman W 84-62 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 72   South Carolina W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 07, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 10   Kentucky L 81-82 46%    
  Jan 14, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 73-83 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 47   Mississippi W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 9   Alabama L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 61   Missouri W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 55   @ Georgia W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 21   Florida W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 47   @ Mississippi W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 18, 2025 23   Texas A&M W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 78-85 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   LSU W 79-73 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 31   Texas W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 27   @ Arkansas L 74-77 38%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.5 3.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 4.6 1.2 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.2 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.2 9.4 11.5 12.6 12.9 11.6 9.8 7.1 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 66.3% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.5% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 9.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 25.8% 74.3% 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 1.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.4% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 2.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.1% 100.0% 12.0% 87.9% 3.3 0.4 1.3 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.8% 99.8% 8.5% 91.3% 4.2 0.2 0.6 2.3 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 11.6% 99.6% 4.9% 94.7% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
10-8 12.9% 97.3% 2.5% 94.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 97.2%
9-9 12.6% 90.8% 1.4% 89.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.2 90.7%
8-10 11.5% 70.1% 1.1% 69.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 69.8%
7-11 9.4% 38.7% 0.6% 38.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.7 38.3%
6-12 7.2% 13.2% 0.1% 13.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 6.3 13.1%
5-13 4.8% 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7 2.5%
4-14 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.2%
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 73.3% 4.6% 68.8% 5.9 3.2 5.3 8.1 8.9 9.2 9.0 8.1 6.4 5.5 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 26.7 72.1%