Preseason Rankings
Texas
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#17
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.9% 5.9% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 12.7% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 20.7% 28.0% 11.8%
Top 6 Seed 32.9% 42.6% 21.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.7% 73.0% 50.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.0% 70.4% 48.1%
Average Seed 6.1 5.7 6.8
.500 or above 87.0% 93.7% 78.9%
.500 or above in Conference 63.8% 71.2% 54.8%
Conference Champion 9.1% 12.0% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 2.8% 6.3%
First Four3.5% 3.2% 3.9%
First Round61.0% 71.5% 48.3%
Second Round42.6% 52.1% 31.3%
Sweet Sixteen21.9% 28.1% 14.5%
Elite Eight11.0% 14.5% 6.8%
Final Four5.2% 7.0% 3.0%
Championship Game2.4% 3.3% 1.3%
National Champion1.1% 1.5% 0.6%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Neutral) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 24 - 211 - 11
Quad 32 - 013 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 31   Ohio St. W 71-70 55%    
  Nov 08, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 91-61 99.7%   
  Nov 12, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 80-54 99%    
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-47 99.9%   
  Nov 21, 2024 56   Syracuse W 78-74 63%    
  Nov 29, 2024 340   Delaware St. W 84-57 99%    
  Dec 04, 2024 49   @ North Carolina St. W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 08, 2024 1   Connecticut L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 12, 2024 161   New Mexico St. W 77-61 91%    
  Dec 15, 2024 358   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 91-61 99.5%   
  Dec 19, 2024 346   New Orleans W 90-62 99%    
  Dec 29, 2024 333   Northwestern St. W 84-58 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 07, 2025 10   Auburn L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 14   Tennessee W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 55   @ Oklahoma W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 25   @ Florida L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 21, 2025 58   Missouri W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 19   Texas A&M W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 40   @ Mississippi L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   @ LSU W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 15   Arkansas W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 89   @ Vanderbilt W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Alabama L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 16   Kentucky W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 15   @ Arkansas L 73-77 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 61   Georgia W 76-69 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 08, 2025 55   Oklahoma W 74-67 71%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.3 9.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.6 1.0 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.0 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.1 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.0 0.2 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.5 9.8 10.7 11.1 10.6 9.6 8.0 6.0 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
16-2 90.5% 2.0    1.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 65.3% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.5% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.3% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.1% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.3 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.0% 99.8% 14.8% 85.1% 4.4 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 9.6% 98.9% 9.6% 89.2% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
11-7 10.6% 95.0% 5.9% 89.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.7%
10-8 11.1% 83.9% 2.9% 81.0% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.8 83.4%
9-9 10.7% 67.4% 1.6% 65.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.5 66.9%
8-10 9.8% 35.9% 0.8% 35.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.2 6.3 35.4%
7-11 8.5% 13.2% 0.5% 12.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.4 12.8%
6-12 6.6% 3.3% 0.2% 3.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4 3.1%
5-13 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.2%
4-14 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0%
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 62.7% 6.8% 55.9% 6.1 3.9 4.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.0 7.2 7.2 5.9 5.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 37.3 60.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.4 24.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0