Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#37
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#59
Pace68.0#205
Improvement+1.3#114

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#41
First Shot+8.3#17
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#304
Layup/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#60
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement+1.3#107

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+4.3#59
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#52
Layups/Dunks+2.8#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#211
Freethrows+2.5#38
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 4.5% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 11.3% 19.2% 6.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.9% 68.3% 42.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.6% 68.0% 42.5%
Average Seed 8.2 7.8 8.5
.500 or above 87.3% 95.4% 82.8%
.500 or above in Conference 30.0% 45.3% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 3.1% 10.1%
First Four8.3% 8.4% 8.2%
First Round48.2% 64.6% 39.0%
Second Round26.3% 37.0% 20.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 11.8% 6.5%
Elite Eight3.0% 4.2% 2.4%
Final Four1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 12
Quad 24 - 210 - 14
Quad 32 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 31   Ohio St. L 72-80 47%     0 - 1 +4.9 +4.6 +0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 325   Houston Christian W 90-59 98%     1 - 1 +18.2 +14.1 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +30.0 +17.6 +8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.8%    3 - 1 +18.4 +12.7 +9.9
  Nov 21, 2024 107   Syracuse W 70-66 79%     4 - 1 +7.7 +1.4 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 75%     5 - 1 +14.1 -0.4 +14.7
  Nov 29, 2024 327   Delaware St. W 90-68 98%     6 - 1 +9.1 +5.9 +1.8
  Dec 04, 2024 84   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 60%     7 - 1 +13.5 +5.4 +8.9
  Dec 08, 2024 17   Connecticut L 65-76 47%     7 - 2 +1.9 +0.6 +0.1
  Dec 12, 2024 153   New Mexico St. W 91-67 91%     8 - 2 +21.3 +18.2 +3.3
  Dec 15, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 121-57 99%     9 - 2 +43.4 +24.1 +14.0
  Dec 19, 2024 352   New Orleans W 98-62 99%     10 - 2 +20.0 +17.1 +3.1
  Dec 29, 2024 294   Northwestern St. W 77-53 97%     11 - 2 +13.7 +13.8 +4.5
  Jan 04, 2025 20   @ Texas A&M L 60-80 26%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -1.2 -1.6 -0.1
  Jan 07, 2025 2   Auburn L 82-87 21%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +15.7 +13.4 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 8   Tennessee L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 43   @ Oklahoma L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 5   @ Florida L 72-83 14%    
  Jan 21, 2025 45   Missouri W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 20   Texas A&M L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 25   @ Mississippi L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 64   @ LSU W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 35   Arkansas W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 49   @ Vanderbilt L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 11, 2025 7   Alabama L 80-84 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 18   Kentucky L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 83   @ South Carolina W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 35   @ Arkansas L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 38   Georgia W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 16   @ Mississippi St. L 69-76 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 43   Oklahoma W 76-72 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.1 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 4.7 1.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.4 2.5 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.5 4.7 0.5 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 2.4 6.2 1.6 0.0 10.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 5.7 3.3 0.3 10.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.1 0.7 0.0 10.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.4 1.2 0.0 9.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.9 7.2 11.0 15.0 16.1 15.1 12.4 8.8 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 18.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.3% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 2.6% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.1% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
10-8 8.8% 98.5% 0.8% 97.7% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 98.4%
9-9 12.4% 95.4% 0.8% 94.6% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 3.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.6 95.4%
8-10 15.1% 80.4% 0.3% 80.2% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.3 4.2 1.6 3.0 80.4%
7-11 16.1% 49.8% 0.5% 49.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.1 0.2 8.1 49.6%
6-12 15.0% 15.0% 0.1% 14.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.3 12.7 14.9%
5-13 11.0% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.8 1.9%
4-14 7.2% 7.2
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 51.9% 0.6% 51.3% 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.6 8.0 8.8 7.7 8.1 7.5 0.5 48.1 51.6%