Houston Christian
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.2#358
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#134
Pace72.7#89
Improvement+0.1#161

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#340
First Shot-4.8#309
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#257
Layup/Dunks-6.0#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
Freethrows-0.1#196
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense-8.0#362
First Shot-10.1#364
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#53
Layups/Dunks-2.9#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#327
Freethrows+3.4#30
Improvement+0.2#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 16.0 15.7
.500 or above 1.9% 5.5% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 14.5% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.1% 27.0% 39.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 46 - 137 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 31   @ Texas L 59-90 1%     0 - 1 -15.5 -3.6 -13.2
  Nov 13, 2024 16   @ Creighton L 43-78 1%     0 - 2 -17.7 -20.7 +1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 170   Rice L 67-78 16%    
  Nov 25, 2024 287   Eastern Michigan L 68-73 32%    
  Nov 27, 2024 277   Northern Arizona L 71-76 32%    
  Nov 30, 2024 273   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-85 15%    
  Dec 05, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 07, 2024 316   Northwestern St. L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 17, 2024 323   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-77 24%    
  Dec 20, 2024 24   @ Texas A&M L 58-89 0.3%   
  Dec 22, 2024 84   @ North Texas L 54-78 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 292   @ Lamar L 72-82 17%    
  Jan 06, 2025 202   @ Stephen F. Austin L 61-76 9%    
  Jan 11, 2025 309   Incarnate Word L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 13, 2025 95   McNeese St. L 64-81 7%    
  Jan 18, 2025 190   UT Rio Grande Valley L 76-86 19%    
  Jan 20, 2025 223   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-82 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   @ New Orleans L 77-80 38%    
  Jan 27, 2025 272   @ SE Louisiana L 67-79 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 309   @ Incarnate Word L 72-81 23%    
  Feb 03, 2025 229   @ Nicholls St. L 66-80 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 356   New Orleans W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 10, 2025 272   SE Louisiana L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 190   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-89 9%    
  Feb 17, 2025 223   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-85 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 292   Lamar L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 24, 2025 202   Stephen F. Austin L 64-73 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 316   @ Northwestern St. L 70-79 24%    
  Mar 03, 2025 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.4 1.3 0.2 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.5 1.8 0.1 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.3 5.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 16.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.7 5.0 7.6 5.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 21.8 11th
12th 1.7 5.2 7.7 7.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 26.7 12th
Total 1.7 5.3 9.4 12.4 14.2 14.0 12.4 9.8 7.6 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 60.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 11.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 21.7% 21.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 0.3% 0.3
13-7 0.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
10-10 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-11 5.0% 5.0
8-12 7.6% 7.6
7-13 9.8% 9.8
6-14 12.4% 12.4
5-15 14.0% 14.0
4-16 14.2% 14.2
3-17 12.4% 12.4
2-18 9.4% 9.4
1-19 5.3% 5.3
0-20 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%