Houston Christian
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.0#348
Expected Predictive Rating-13.8#343
Pace64.3#297
Improvement+0.9#127

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#315
First Shot-3.1#267
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#296
Layup/Dunks+1.0#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#233
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement+0.3#147

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#353
First Shot-7.5#357
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#134
Layups/Dunks-11.1#364
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#56
Freethrows-0.3#211
Improvement+0.6#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.8% 11.6% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.7% 15.9% 28.9%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 46 - 127 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 33   @ Texas L 59-90 1%     0 - 1 -15.4 -3.0 -13.8
  Nov 13, 2024 46   @ Creighton L 43-78 2%     0 - 2 -21.2 -21.9 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2024 192   Rice L 58-61 24%     0 - 3 -7.6 -8.0 +0.0
  Nov 25, 2024 304   Eastern Michigan L 73-74 46%     0 - 4 -11.9 -2.0 -9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 266   Northern Arizona L 71-74 37%     0 - 5 -11.6 -1.7 -10.1
  Nov 30, 2024 225   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-78 14%     0 - 6 -7.5 +1.1 -9.1
  Dec 05, 2024 356   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-79 65%     1 - 6 1 - 0 -12.0 +4.2 -16.1
  Dec 07, 2024 291   Northwestern St. L 57-64 42%     1 - 7 1 - 1 -16.9 -11.3 -6.8
  Dec 17, 2024 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-68 33%     2 - 7 -1.5 -1.4 -0.1
  Dec 20, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 45-77 1%     2 - 8 -15.0 -11.9 -7.4
  Dec 22, 2024 81   @ North Texas L 51-73 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 194   @ Lamar L 62-75 11%    
  Jan 06, 2025 213   @ Stephen F. Austin L 58-70 13%    
  Jan 11, 2025 300   Incarnate Word L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 13, 2025 91   McNeese St. L 61-76 8%    
  Jan 18, 2025 229   UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 20, 2025 187   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 346   @ New Orleans L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 27, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana L 62-73 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 300   @ Incarnate Word L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 03, 2025 242   @ Nicholls St. L 65-76 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 346   New Orleans W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 10, 2025 227   SE Louisiana L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 229   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-81 15%    
  Feb 17, 2025 187   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-79 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   Lamar L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 24, 2025 213   Stephen F. Austin L 61-67 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 291   @ Northwestern St. L 64-72 24%    
  Mar 03, 2025 356   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 1.6 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 7.1 8.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 22.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.6 8.5 8.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 25.5 11th
12th 1.5 4.4 6.2 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 18.0 12th
Total 1.5 5.2 11.0 15.6 17.4 15.9 12.9 8.9 5.7 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 11.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
10-10 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
9-11 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
8-12 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 12.9% 12.9
6-14 15.9% 15.9
5-15 17.4% 17.4
4-16 15.6% 15.6
3-17 11.0% 11.0
2-18 5.2% 5.2
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%