Rice
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#192
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#170
Pace64.4#291
Improvement-2.4#291

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#194
First Shot-1.0#206
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#218
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement+1.4#92

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#198
First Shot-2.7#260
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#45
Layups/Dunks+2.3#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#229
Freethrows-2.2#324
Improvement-3.9#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 59.5% 73.1% 44.5%
.500 or above in Conference 14.6% 21.9% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 5.9% 16.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 412 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 243   Florida International W 77-70 71%     1 - 0 -0.1 -2.5 +1.8
  Nov 09, 2024 58   Florida St. L 65-73 15%     1 - 1 +1.5 -3.7 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2024 347   Louisiana Monroe W 66-50 89%     2 - 1 +1.3 -8.7 +10.9
  Nov 16, 2024 284   Northwestern St. W 77-75 OT 79%     3 - 1 -7.8 -1.8 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2024 306   @ Louisiana W 83-61 65%     4 - 1 +16.6 +14.9 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 308   @ Houston Christian W 61-58 66%     5 - 1 -2.5 -5.8 +3.7
  Nov 29, 2024 175   Hofstra L 63-68 OT 47%     5 - 2 -5.7 -8.0 +2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 100   Arkansas St. W 75-67 28%     6 - 2 +12.8 +5.5 +7.3
  Dec 01, 2024 253   Iona W 70-66 65%     7 - 2 -1.3 -1.4 +0.1
  Dec 08, 2024 167   @ Texas St. L 66-75 35%     7 - 3 -6.5 +2.5 -10.4
  Dec 16, 2024 328   Alcorn St. W 77-75 86%     8 - 3 -11.0 -3.3 -7.8
  Dec 22, 2024 334   Prairie View W 64-46 88%     9 - 3 +3.9 -7.3 +13.8
  Jan 01, 2025 251   @ Tulsa W 70-64 54%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +3.6 +3.1 +1.0
  Jan 04, 2025 224   Charlotte W 68-55 69%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +6.6 +6.2 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2025 65   @ North Texas L 59-81 12%     11 - 4 2 - 1 -10.8 +7.0 -22.9
  Jan 11, 2025 110   Temple L 70-73 43%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -2.5 -5.8 +3.4
  Jan 14, 2025 229   Texas San Antonio L 84-90 69%     11 - 6 2 - 3 -12.6 +4.4 -16.9
  Jan 19, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-75 24%     11 - 7 2 - 4 +4.2 +8.4 -4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 148   Tulane W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 154   @ South Florida L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 02, 2025 42   Memphis L 69-79 18%    
  Feb 05, 2025 164   @ East Carolina L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 224   @ Charlotte L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 65   North Texas L 59-66 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 148   @ Tulane L 68-73 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 97   UAB L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Tulsa W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 66-82 7%    
  Mar 02, 2025 229   @ Texas San Antonio L 75-76 48%    
  Mar 06, 2025 138   Wichita St. L 72-73 51%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.7 3.1 0.3 10.1 7th
8th 0.9 6.3 5.7 0.9 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.4 5.3 8.7 2.1 0.1 16.6 9th
10th 0.2 3.8 9.3 3.9 0.3 17.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.4 8.0 4.6 0.3 15.4 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.2 12th
13th 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.5 13th
Total 0.5 3.1 9.0 16.5 20.6 20.3 15.4 9.1 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 13.5 0.1 0.1 3.7
9-9 9.1% 1.7% 1.7% 13.5 0.1 0.1 8.9
8-10 15.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 15.3
7-11 20.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.2
6-12 20.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.6
5-13 16.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 16.5
4-14 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%