Rice
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#178
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#209
Pace65.1#263
Improvement-0.5#211

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#130
First Shot+0.6#149
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks-4.1#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#204
Freethrows+2.8#41
Improvement+4.8#17

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#235
First Shot-4.0#305
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#53
Layups/Dunks+1.9#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#242
Freethrows-2.6#337
Improvement-5.3#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 13.7% 17.6% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 40.3% 30.6% 68.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 411 - 415 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 268   Florida International W 77-70 75%     1 - 0 -1.1 -2.6 +1.0
  Nov 09, 2024 82   Florida St. L 65-73 23%     1 - 1 -1.1 -3.4 +2.5
  Nov 12, 2024 336   Louisiana Monroe W 66-50 89%     2 - 1 +2.0 -8.0 +11.0
  Nov 16, 2024 272   Northwestern St. W 77-75 OT 77%     3 - 1 -6.8 +0.3 -7.1
  Nov 19, 2024 289   @ Louisiana W 83-61 64%     4 - 1 +17.5 +16.4 +3.0
  Nov 22, 2024 295   @ Houston Christian W 61-58 65%     5 - 1 -1.9 -6.3 +4.8
  Nov 29, 2024 227   Hofstra L 63-68 OT 60%     5 - 2 -8.6 -10.8 +2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 97   Arkansas St. W 75-67 28%     6 - 2 +13.0 +6.8 +6.3
  Dec 01, 2024 259   Iona W 70-66 67%     7 - 2 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3
  Dec 08, 2024 202   @ Texas St. L 66-75 45%     7 - 3 -8.7 +1.5 -11.5
  Dec 16, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 77-75 83%     8 - 3 -9.0 -2.3 -6.8
  Dec 22, 2024 356   Prairie View W 64-46 92%     9 - 3 +1.7 -7.6 +11.9
  Jan 01, 2025 246   @ Tulsa W 70-64 55%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +3.8 +3.0 +1.3
  Jan 04, 2025 235   Charlotte W 68-55 71%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +6.5 +6.0 +3.3
  Jan 08, 2025 71   @ North Texas L 59-81 14%     11 - 4 2 - 1 -11.5 +7.4 -24.1
  Jan 11, 2025 155   Temple L 70-73 54%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -5.0 -8.5 +3.6
  Jan 14, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio L 84-90 66%     11 - 6 2 - 3 -11.1 +6.5 -17.5
  Jan 19, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-75 24%     11 - 7 2 - 4 +4.6 +8.0 -3.6
  Jan 25, 2025 144   Tulane L 71-82 52%     11 - 8 2 - 5 -12.5 -2.6 -10.0
  Jan 28, 2025 176   @ South Florida L 64-69 40%     11 - 9 2 - 6 -3.4 -5.9 +2.4
  Feb 02, 2025 47   Memphis L 83-86 19%     11 - 10 2 - 7 +5.6 +12.6 -6.9
  Feb 05, 2025 150   @ East Carolina W 73-60 34%     12 - 10 3 - 7 +16.2 +1.3 +15.0
  Feb 08, 2025 235   @ Charlotte L 75-78 52%     12 - 11 3 - 8 -4.5 +11.5 -16.4
  Feb 11, 2025 71   North Texas L 61-67 27%     12 - 12 3 - 9 -0.6 +7.4 -9.4
  Feb 15, 2025 144   @ Tulane L 78-81 33%     12 - 13 3 - 10 +0.6 +12.2 -11.9
  Feb 19, 2025 104   UAB L 89-90 40%     12 - 14 3 - 11 +0.6 +17.2 -16.7
  Feb 22, 2025 246   Tulsa W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 68-83 8%    
  Mar 02, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-77 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 115   Wichita St. L 72-73 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.5 8th
9th 4.2 0.9 5.1 9th
10th 5.6 11.1 0.2 17.0 10th
11th 1.0 20.5 2.8 24.3 11th
12th 1.9 23.8 13.3 0.1 39.1 12th
13th 5.3 8.5 0.3 14.0 13th
Total 7.2 33.3 39.7 18.2 1.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 18.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 18.1
5-13 39.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.2 0.0 39.5
4-14 33.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 33.2
3-15 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%