Rice
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#171
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#111
Pace65.3#295
Improvement+1.3#56

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#184
First Shot-2.2#245
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#80
Layup/Dunks-6.1#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#123
Freethrows+1.0#139
Improvement+1.2#37

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#182
First Shot-1.8#242
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#92
Layups/Dunks-0.3#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#163
Freethrows-1.7#272
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 50.9% 55.1% 28.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 29.8% 18.0%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.5% 13.2% 21.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 66 - 14
Quad 410 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 273   Florida International W 77-70 78%     1 - 0 -1.8 -4.4 +2.1
  Nov 09, 2024 79   Florida St. L 65-73 23%     1 - 1 -0.8 -3.9 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2024 324   Louisiana Monroe W 66-50 85%     2 - 1 +4.0 -6.9 +11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 316   Northwestern St. W 77-75 OT 84%     3 - 1 -9.5 -2.5 -7.0
  Nov 19, 2024 244   @ Louisiana W 83-61 52%     4 - 1 +20.8 +17.1 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian W 78-67 84%    
  Nov 29, 2024 131   Hofstra L 66-69 41%    
  Nov 30, 2024 112   Arkansas St. L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 01, 2024 217   Iona W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 08, 2024 166   @ Texas St. L 65-68 38%    
  Dec 16, 2024 350   Alcorn St. W 75-60 92%    
  Dec 22, 2024 348   Prairie View W 81-66 91%    
  Jan 01, 2025 147   @ Tulsa L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 142   Charlotte W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 08, 2025 83   @ North Texas L 56-67 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 113   Temple L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 14, 2025 278   Texas San Antonio W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 19, 2025 75   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-81 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 146   Tulane W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 28, 2025 121   @ South Florida L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 02, 2025 33   Memphis L 70-80 20%    
  Feb 05, 2025 145   @ East Carolina L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 142   @ Charlotte L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 83   North Texas L 59-64 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 103   UAB L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 147   Tulsa W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 67-83 9%    
  Mar 02, 2025 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.8 1.1 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.5 2.1 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 12.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.7 12th
13th 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.6 13th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.2 9.4 12.1 13.6 13.8 12.3 10.4 7.4 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 92.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 67.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 30.0% 17.5% 12.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.2%
15-3 0.3% 12.0% 11.1% 0.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0%
14-4 0.7% 8.7% 8.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.5% 9.6% 9.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-6 2.9% 6.0% 6.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-7 4.7% 3.2% 3.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5
10-8 7.4% 2.1% 2.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.2
9-9 10.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3
8-10 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-11 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
5-13 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 12.1
4-14 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 6.2% 6.2
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%