Tulane
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#144
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#170
Pace67.2#204
Improvement+2.8#74

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#158
First Shot+1.5#122
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#236
Layup/Dunks-0.9#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#142
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement+2.4#73

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#166
First Shot-0.9#206
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks+3.0#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#334
Freethrows-2.5#334
Improvement+0.4#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.5% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 86.4% 97.6% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 2.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 4.5% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 35 - 65 - 12
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 336   Louisiana Monroe W 80-64 91%     1 - 0 +2.0 -1.8 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 84-51 87%     2 - 0 +22.0 +14.1 +10.8
  Nov 15, 2024 159   @ Furman L 67-75 43%     2 - 1 -5.3 -1.4 -4.4
  Nov 19, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 72-57 84%     3 - 1 +5.1 -2.9 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 353   New Orleans L 87-93 OT 93%     3 - 2 -21.7 -8.5 -12.3
  Nov 26, 2024 166   Wyoming L 63-64 55%     3 - 3 -1.3 -4.9 +3.6
  Nov 27, 2024 140   Belmont L 66-89 49%     3 - 4 -21.9 -9.3 -13.0
  Dec 02, 2024 213   SE Louisiana L 67-71 72%     3 - 5 -9.2 -4.1 -5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 64-76 19%     3 - 6 -1.9 +5.3 -7.9
  Dec 10, 2024 280   Southern Miss W 86-58 83%     4 - 6 +18.9 +10.8 +8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 82   Florida St. L 64-77 29%     4 - 7 -6.1 -2.4 -3.8
  Dec 31, 2024 235   @ Charlotte W 83-68 59%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +13.5 +2.5 +9.9
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio W 92-63 72%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +23.9 +10.4 +11.9
  Jan 07, 2025 104   @ UAB L 69-81 29%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -5.3 -6.2 +0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 176   South Florida W 73-70 67%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -0.5 +8.7 -8.8
  Jan 15, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic W 80-65 48%     8 - 8 4 - 1 +16.5 +6.6 +10.1
  Jan 19, 2025 155   @ Temple L 77-80 42%     8 - 9 4 - 2 +0.0 +9.2 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 178   @ Rice W 82-71 48%     9 - 9 5 - 2 +12.6 +8.5 +4.1
  Jan 30, 2025 47   Memphis L 56-68 23%     9 - 10 5 - 3 -3.4 -7.9 +3.6
  Feb 02, 2025 246   Tulsa W 59-56 79%     10 - 10 6 - 3 -4.3 -11.1 +7.1
  Feb 05, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 61-60 54%     11 - 10 7 - 3 +1.0 -7.9 +9.0
  Feb 08, 2025 71   @ North Texas L 66-76 19%     11 - 11 7 - 4 +0.5 +17.3 -19.3
  Feb 15, 2025 178   Rice W 81-78 67%     12 - 11 8 - 4 -0.5 +10.4 -10.7
  Feb 19, 2025 150   East Carolina W 86-81 61%     13 - 11 9 - 4 +3.1 +10.4 -7.3
  Feb 23, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. L 70-74 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 235   Charlotte W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 246   @ Tulsa W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 70-72 40%    
  Mar 09, 2025 104   UAB L 79-80 50%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 6.6 2.6 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 15.6 9.3 0.6 28.7 3rd
4th 0.1 5.9 24.7 14.5 1.0 46.2 4th
5th 0.7 6.8 3.2 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 1.1 0.7 1.8 6th
7th 0.4 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.3 13.4 31.1 32.3 17.0 3.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 15.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.8% 5.0% 5.0% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
13-5 17.0% 4.9% 4.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 16.2
12-6 32.3% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 31.0
11-7 31.1% 2.5% 2.5% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 30.4
10-8 13.4% 2.2% 2.2% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.1
9-9 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 2.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.0 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 1.0%