North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#71
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#71
Pace55.8#362
Improvement-1.1#239

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#120
First Shot-0.6#195
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#54
Layup/Dunks-3.2#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#192
Freethrows+3.6#23
Improvement+0.5#162

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#38
First Shot+4.1#63
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#34
Layups/Dunks+6.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
Freethrows-2.0#311
Improvement-1.5#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 25.8% 21.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 19.4% 24.9% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
First Round24.2% 25.4% 21.1%
Second Round5.3% 5.7% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 24 - 34 - 6
Quad 311 - 115 - 7
Quad 47 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 237   Evansville W 80-63 91%     1 - 0 +10.4 +13.6 -1.7
  Nov 13, 2024 76   @ Minnesota W 54-51 42%     2 - 0 +12.9 -1.5 +15.1
  Nov 18, 2024 86   @ McNeese St. L 61-68 45%     2 - 1 +2.2 -2.1 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 87   Oregon St. W 58-55 65%     3 - 1 +6.9 -4.3 +11.7
  Nov 28, 2024 100   Northern Iowa W 68-48 63%     4 - 1 +24.6 +2.9 +23.4
  Nov 29, 2024 45   Utah St. L 57-61 37%     4 - 2 +7.3 -7.6 +14.5
  Dec 06, 2024 96   @ High Point L 71-76 51%     4 - 3 +2.6 -2.7 +5.2
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-42 99.8%    5 - 3 +10.1 +9.6 +7.2
  Dec 20, 2024 141   Appalachian St. W 68-64 81%     6 - 3 +2.6 +14.5 -11.0
  Dec 22, 2024 295   Houston Christian W 62-46 94%     7 - 3 +6.0 -0.3 +10.4
  Dec 31, 2024 104   UAB W 78-75 73%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +4.6 +8.4 -3.5
  Jan 05, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 64-68 29%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +9.7 +3.7 +5.7
  Jan 08, 2025 178   Rice W 81-59 86%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +18.5 +23.5 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2025 150   @ East Carolina W 69-60 68%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +12.2 +8.1 +5.5
  Jan 18, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-57 77%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +15.0 +11.1 +6.6
  Jan 22, 2025 155   Temple W 76-67 83%     12 - 4 5 - 1 +7.0 +4.6 +2.9
  Jan 26, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic W 77-64 73%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +14.5 +14.4 +2.1
  Jan 29, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. W 58-54 60%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +9.4 +0.2 +10.0
  Feb 01, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio L 50-54 88%     14 - 5 7 - 2 -9.1 -17.5 +7.7
  Feb 03, 2025 104   @ UAB L 61-64 55%     14 - 6 7 - 3 +3.7 -7.8 +11.2
  Feb 08, 2025 144   Tulane W 76-66 81%     15 - 6 8 - 3 +8.5 +21.2 -10.3
  Feb 11, 2025 178   @ Rice W 67-61 73%     16 - 6 9 - 3 +7.6 +8.8 +0.2
  Feb 19, 2025 246   Tulsa W 63-44 92%     17 - 6 10 - 3 +11.7 -4.1 +18.2
  Feb 23, 2025 176   @ South Florida W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 03, 2025 115   Wichita St. W 67-59 77%    
  Mar 06, 2025 235   Charlotte W 68-54 92%    
  Mar 09, 2025 155   @ Temple W 69-64 66%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 6.9 12.0 19.4 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 21.9 29.4 7.7 62.6 2nd
3rd 0.9 6.9 7.1 0.8 15.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 2.1 11.3 29.6 37.1 19.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 60.9% 12.0    3.4 7.9 0.6
14-4 18.6% 6.9    0.8 4.2 1.8 0.1
13-5 1.8% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 19.4% 19.4 4.2 12.3 2.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 19.7% 32.4% 30.9% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.3 4.2 1.9 0.0 13.3 2.2%
14-4 37.1% 25.5% 25.1% 0.4% 11.7 3.0 6.3 0.2 27.6 0.5%
13-5 29.6% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 12.0 0.9 5.0 0.5 0.0 23.2 0.0%
12-6 11.3% 17.0% 17.0% 12.1 0.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.4
11-7 2.1% 13.3% 13.3% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
10-8 0.2% 0.0 0.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.5% 24.0% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.3 8.3 14.8 1.1 0.0 75.5 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.1% 100.0% 11.3 0.2 4.4 65.8 29.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.6% 3.8% 11.2 0.2 2.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.2% 1.4% 11.3 1.0 0.5