North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#83
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#60
Pace57.5#362
Improvement-0.7#269

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#137
First Shot-5.4#316
After Offensive Rebound+6.7#3
Layup/Dunks-1.8#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#288
Freethrows+3.3#47
Improvement-0.7#296

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#40
First Shot+4.0#69
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#83
Layups/Dunks+2.2#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#129
Freethrows-3.2#331
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 20.5% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 6.7% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.6 10.4 11.2
.500 or above 90.6% 94.7% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 86.2% 76.2%
Conference Champion 15.8% 18.2% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four2.5% 3.2% 1.2%
First Round16.2% 19.0% 10.6%
Second Round6.0% 7.4% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.4% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 312 - 9
Quad 48 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 300   Evansville W 80-63 94%     1 - 0 +6.6 +8.5 -0.4
  Nov 13, 2024 90   @ Minnesota W 54-51 43%     2 - 0 +11.7 -0.5 +12.9
  Nov 18, 2024 91   @ McNeese St. L 61-68 43%     2 - 1 +1.6 -2.1 +3.1
  Nov 25, 2024 98   Oregon St. W 63-58 67%    
  Nov 28, 2024 118   Northern Iowa W 65-61 63%    
  Dec 06, 2024 125   @ High Point W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 75-44 99.8%   
  Dec 20, 2024 200   Appalachian St. W 66-54 86%    
  Dec 22, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 103   UAB W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 05, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 171   Rice W 67-56 82%    
  Jan 14, 2025 145   @ East Carolina W 62-59 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 113   Temple W 66-60 71%    
  Jan 26, 2025 75   Florida Atlantic W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 278   Texas San Antonio W 75-59 91%    
  Feb 03, 2025 103   @ UAB L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 146   Tulane W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 171   @ Rice W 64-59 65%    
  Feb 19, 2025 147   Tulsa W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 23, 2025 121   @ South Florida W 63-62 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 75   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-71 37%    
  Mar 03, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 66-62 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 142   Charlotte W 64-55 77%    
  Mar 09, 2025 113   @ Temple W 64-63 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 4.6 3.4 1.6 0.4 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.5 5.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.2 3.9 0.7 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 7.0 9.2 11.7 12.9 13.4 12.5 10.2 6.9 4.0 1.7 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.8% 1.6    1.5 0.2
16-2 86.2% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.3% 4.6    2.9 1.6 0.2
14-4 37.7% 3.9    1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.4 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 96.3% 50.0% 46.3% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.5%
17-1 1.7% 87.6% 44.8% 42.8% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 77.6%
16-2 4.0% 66.2% 34.7% 31.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.3 48.2%
15-3 6.9% 45.8% 27.6% 18.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.7 25.1%
14-4 10.2% 29.9% 23.4% 6.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 7.2 8.5%
13-5 12.5% 20.4% 18.4% 1.9% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.0 2.4%
12-6 13.4% 13.6% 13.2% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 11.6 0.5%
11-7 12.9% 9.3% 9.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.7 0.1%
10-8 11.7% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.0%
9-9 9.2% 3.2% 3.2% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.9
8-10 7.0% 1.6% 1.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9
7-11 4.7% 1.7% 1.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 2.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.4% 13.0% 4.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 6.7 5.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.6 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 8.7 10.9 23.9 37.0 4.3 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 95.7% 4.8 21.7 34.8 13.0 17.4 4.3 4.3