Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#118
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#194
Pace66.4#268
Improvement+0.4#130

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#106
First Shot+6.5#32
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#350
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#92
Freethrows-1.6#261
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot+0.3#171
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#158
Layups/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#78
Freethrows+0.9#135
Improvement+0.6#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 15.2% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 12.8
.500 or above 75.2% 86.6% 68.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 80.9% 70.1%
Conference Champion 13.2% 17.4% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.9% 2.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round11.7% 15.1% 9.7%
Second Round2.1% 3.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Neutral) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 12
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 210   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 80%     1 - 0 +13.6 +11.9 +2.2
  Nov 10, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 60-80 39%     1 - 1 -13.9 -7.0 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 31%     1 - 2 +2.5 +5.2 -2.8
  Nov 19, 2024 325   Western Illinois W 82-56 92%     2 - 2 +13.9 +13.8 +3.1
  Nov 28, 2024 83   North Texas L 61-65 37%    
  Dec 04, 2024 157   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 07, 2024 293   Northern Illinois W 78-65 89%    
  Dec 13, 2024 262   Nebraska Omaha W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 16, 2024 211   Montana W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 80   Washington St. L 72-76 36%    
  Dec 29, 2024 132   Southern Illinois W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 01, 2025 141   Belmont W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 08, 2025 109   Murray St. W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 172   @ Illinois St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 14, 2025 300   Evansville W 80-66 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 162   Missouri St. W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 180   @ Indiana St. W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 107   @ Drake L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 02, 2025 93   Bradley W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 172   Illinois St. W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 11, 2025 180   Indiana St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 16, 2025 109   @ Murray St. L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 107   Drake W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 79-73 70%    
  Mar 02, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 68-73 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 3.5 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.3 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.8 6.7 8.4 10.7 12.0 11.8 11.3 9.7 7.8 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 98.8% 1.6    1.5 0.1
17-3 87.7% 2.9    2.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 68.1% 3.5    2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 38.1% 3.0    1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 13.0% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.3 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 77.1% 60.4% 16.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.1%
19-1 0.6% 55.3% 43.9% 11.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 20.3%
18-2 1.7% 45.7% 43.4% 2.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0%
17-3 3.3% 34.6% 33.7% 0.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.3%
16-4 5.2% 27.3% 27.1% 0.1% 12.1 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.2%
15-5 7.8% 23.7% 23.6% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.0%
14-6 9.7% 17.9% 17.9% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.0
13-7 11.3% 14.3% 14.3% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.7
12-8 11.8% 10.1% 10.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 10.6
11-9 12.0% 6.3% 6.3% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.2
10-10 10.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.2
9-11 8.4% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2
8-12 6.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
7-13 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.7
6-14 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.7% 11.6% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 4.6 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.2 88.3 0.2%