Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#100
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#105
Pace64.9#269
Improvement+0.4#168

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#99
First Shot+4.0#75
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#269
Layup/Dunks+1.4#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows-0.6#214
Improvement-2.2#290

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#116
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#97
Layups/Dunks+2.8#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#217
Freethrows+2.3#46
Improvement+2.6#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 20.8% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 22.9% 45.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.6% 20.8% 16.4%
Second Round2.4% 2.7% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 39 - 612 - 11
Quad 49 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 70%     1 - 0 +18.2 +15.5 +3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 85   UC Irvine L 60-80 52%     1 - 1 -15.8 -6.0 -10.0
  Nov 14, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 47%     1 - 2 -0.6 +4.7 -5.4
  Nov 19, 2024 351   Western Illinois W 82-56 96%     2 - 2 +10.5 +10.8 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2024 71   North Texas L 48-68 37%     2 - 3 -12.1 -14.5 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 106   St. Bonaventure L 56-68 52%     2 - 4 -7.9 -6.6 -2.7
  Dec 04, 2024 147   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-56 55%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +30.3 +22.5 +11.5
  Dec 07, 2024 341   Northern Illinois W 101-57 95%     4 - 4 +29.6 +28.3 +3.5
  Dec 13, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha W 78-58 80%     5 - 4 +15.9 +5.7 +11.6
  Dec 16, 2024 182   Montana W 104-76 79%     6 - 4 +24.3 +31.1 -5.7
  Dec 21, 2024 107   Washington St. L 68-76 54%     6 - 5 -4.4 -0.4 -4.5
  Dec 29, 2024 179   Southern Illinois W 78-67 78%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +7.5 +8.7 -0.6
  Jan 01, 2025 140   Belmont W 76-70 72%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +4.6 -4.5 +8.9
  Jan 04, 2025 238   @ Valparaiso L 73-80 73%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -8.6 -0.6 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2025 156   Murray St. L 68-71 74%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -5.1 +4.9 -10.4
  Jan 11, 2025 127   @ Illinois St. W 85-84 51%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +5.3 +17.2 -11.8
  Jan 14, 2025 237   Evansville W 73-56 85%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.4 -2.2 +12.2
  Jan 18, 2025 179   @ Southern Illinois L 49-73 62%     10 - 8 5 - 3 -22.5 -14.5 -11.8
  Jan 21, 2025 219   Missouri St. W 79-68 83%     11 - 8 6 - 3 +5.3 +16.4 -9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 203   @ Indiana St. W 74-56 66%     12 - 8 7 - 3 +18.3 +1.8 +17.1
  Jan 29, 2025 74   @ Drake L 52-66 29%     12 - 9 7 - 4 -3.7 -2.8 -4.6
  Feb 02, 2025 94   Bradley W 83-69 58%     13 - 9 8 - 4 +16.6 +13.8 +3.3
  Feb 05, 2025 219   @ Missouri St. W 66-61 69%     14 - 9 9 - 4 +4.4 -2.1 +6.7
  Feb 08, 2025 127   Illinois St. W 68-65 70%     15 - 9 10 - 4 +2.2 -5.1 +7.5
  Feb 11, 2025 203   Indiana St. W 88-73 81%     16 - 9 11 - 4 +10.2 +14.5 -3.7
  Feb 17, 2025 156   Murray St. W 74-67 66%     17 - 9 12 - 4 +7.5 +3.9 +3.7
  Feb 19, 2025 140   @ Belmont W 82-75 54%     18 - 9 13 - 4 +10.7 +7.2 +3.5
  Feb 23, 2025 74   Drake L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 147   Illinois-Chicago W 76-70 74%    
  Mar 02, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 69-72 37%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 8.3 14.5 22.9 1st
2nd 0.7 18.2 32.2 51.0 2nd
3rd 8.4 17.7 26.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 9.0 36.0 40.5 14.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 14.5    4.5 10.0
15-5 20.5% 8.3    0.5 4.3 3.6
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 22.9% 22.9 4.9 14.3 3.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 14.5% 24.5% 24.5% 11.9 0.5 2.9 0.2 11.0
15-5 40.5% 19.6% 19.6% 12.3 0.3 5.3 2.2 0.1 32.6
14-6 36.0% 16.8% 16.8% 12.6 0.0 2.8 2.7 0.5 29.9
13-7 9.0% 11.2% 11.2% 12.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 8.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 12.3 0.8 11.4 5.6 0.8 81.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.6% 100.0% 11.9 14.1 80.8 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%
Lose Out 3.4%