Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#98
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#140
Pace64.4#295
Improvement+3.8#18

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#69
First Shot+6.1#38
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#286
Layup/Dunks+1.1#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#81
Freethrows-1.0#248
Improvement+2.8#23

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#131
First Shot+0.7#147
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#137
Layups/Dunks+3.4#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#193
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement+1.0#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 19.9% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 91.2% 95.8% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 93.3% 89.4%
Conference Champion 19.4% 23.4% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round17.1% 19.8% 15.0%
Second Round3.7% 4.6% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Neutral) - 44.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 63 - 7
Quad 38 - 411 - 12
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 76%     1 - 0 +17.2 +14.0 +3.8
  Nov 10, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 60-80 47%     1 - 1 -13.8 -5.7 -8.3
  Nov 14, 2024 110   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 45%     1 - 2 +0.7 +5.1 -4.5
  Nov 19, 2024 331   Western Illinois W 82-56 95%     2 - 2 +13.0 +12.4 +3.7
  Nov 28, 2024 80   North Texas L 48-68 44%     2 - 3 -13.0 -14.6 -0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure L 56-68 47%     2 - 4 -5.6 -5.1 -1.9
  Dec 04, 2024 199   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-56 66%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +28.4 +22.3 +9.7
  Dec 07, 2024 346   Northern Illinois W 101-57 96%     4 - 4 +29.0 +27.3 +3.9
  Dec 13, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha W 78-58 92%     5 - 4 +9.8 +5.6 +5.6
  Dec 16, 2024 215   Montana W 104-76 85%     6 - 4 +22.5 +31.1 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 77   Washington St. L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 29, 2024 168   Southern Illinois W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 01, 2025 133   Belmont W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 08, 2025 124   Murray St. W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 14, 2025 290   Evansville W 78-63 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 67   @ Drake L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 79   Bradley W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 16, 2025 124   @ Murray St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 133   @ Belmont W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 23, 2025 67   Drake L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 78-68 82%    
  Mar 02, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 3.5 5.4 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.8 7.1 4.0 1.1 0.1 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.5 5.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.8 3.4 0.7 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.0 10.0 12.6 14.2 14.3 12.7 9.8 6.3 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
18-2 96.6% 2.9    2.6 0.3
17-3 81.5% 5.1    3.7 1.3 0.0
16-4 55.0% 5.4    3.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.2% 3.5    1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.8% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 12.1 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 66.7% 51.9% 14.8% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.8%
19-1 1.1% 44.0% 39.1% 4.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 8.1%
18-2 3.0% 39.1% 38.1% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.8 1.5%
17-3 6.3% 35.6% 35.5% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.1 4.0 0.2%
16-4 9.8% 27.2% 27.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.1 0.1%
15-5 12.7% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.7 0.0%
14-6 14.3% 18.2% 18.2% 12.3 0.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.7
13-7 14.2% 15.3% 15.3% 12.5 0.0 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.0
12-8 12.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.2
11-9 10.0% 7.8% 7.8% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.2
10-10 7.0% 5.2% 5.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.7
9-11 4.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
8-12 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-13 1.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6 9.8 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 82.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.0 17.5 15.0 37.5 20.0 5.0 2.5 2.5