St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#61
Pace64.5#311
Improvement-0.5#246

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot-0.3#194
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#67
Layup/Dunks+0.7#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#263
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement+0.7#83

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#123
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#245
Layups/Dunks+6.7#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#341
Freethrows+3.0#47
Improvement-1.2#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.0% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.8
.500 or above 83.9% 88.6% 71.0%
.500 or above in Conference 60.8% 64.5% 50.7%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.8% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.4% 6.7%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round5.9% 6.7% 3.9%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 410 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge W 70-56 78%     1 - 0 +9.5 -9.9 +18.2
  Nov 09, 2024 351   @ Canisius W 87-78 89%     2 - 0 -0.9 +18.5 -18.3
  Nov 13, 2024 216   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 63%     3 - 0 +9.3 +3.8 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2024 336   Le Moyne W 71-52 94%     4 - 0 +5.2 -2.2 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 159   Bryant W 79-72 73%    
  Nov 28, 2024 45   Utah St. L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 04, 2024 233   @ Bucknell W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 07, 2024 330   Buffalo W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 77   Providence L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 17, 2024 306   @ Siena W 70-61 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 327   Niagara W 78-62 92%    
  Dec 31, 2024 50   Virginia Commonwealth L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   @ Fordham W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 08, 2025 101   @ Saint Louis L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 120   La Salle W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 15, 2025 197   Richmond W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Duquesne W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 96   George Mason W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 24, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 28, 2025 64   Dayton L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 161   Fordham W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 04, 2025 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 09, 2025 143   George Washington W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 117   @ Rhode Island L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   @ Massachusetts L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 207   Duquesne W 71-62 78%    
  Feb 26, 2025 100   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-73 35%    
  Mar 05, 2025 129   Massachusetts W 73-69 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 130   @ Davidson L 67-68 45%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.5 3.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 4.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.6 2.6 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.3 3.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.4 1.3 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.5 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.0 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.1 4.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.6 9.5 11.8 12.9 12.7 11.1 9.4 6.9 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.2% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 72.6% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.0% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 76.9% 44.2% 32.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 58.6%
16-2 1.0% 50.1% 29.6% 20.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 29.2%
15-3 2.3% 38.3% 25.6% 12.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.4 17.2%
14-4 4.2% 22.0% 17.9% 4.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 5.0%
13-5 6.9% 14.9% 14.0% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 5.8 1.1%
12-6 9.4% 10.3% 10.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.4 0.1%
11-7 11.1% 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.1%
10-8 12.7% 3.5% 3.5% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.3
9-9 12.9% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.6
8-10 11.8% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7
7-11 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
6-12 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.1% 5.3% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.9 0.9%