St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#91
Pace61.8#341
Improvement-5.2#345

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#160
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#109
Layup/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#288
Freethrows-0.3#195
Improvement-2.1#285

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#80
First Shot+4.4#60
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#273
Layups/Dunks+3.7#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#271
Freethrows+2.5#35
Improvement-3.1#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 2.9% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 51.6% 9.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.6% 2.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 54 - 7
Quad 37 - 312 - 10
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 114   Cal St. Northridge W 70-56 64%     1 - 0 +14.3 -8.1 +21.2
  Nov 09, 2024 354   @ Canisius W 87-78 91%     2 - 0 -2.0 +16.3 -17.2
  Nov 13, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 60%     3 - 0 +10.5 +1.9 +8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 357   Le Moyne W 71-52 96%     4 - 0 +2.6 -5.7 +10.0
  Nov 24, 2024 161   Bryant W 85-70 74%     5 - 0 +12.5 +10.8 +1.6
  Nov 28, 2024 45   Utah St. L 67-72 24%     5 - 1 +6.3 -2.1 +8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 100   Northern Iowa W 68-56 48%     6 - 1 +16.6 +5.4 +12.7
  Dec 04, 2024 232   @ Bucknell W 64-47 70%     7 - 1 +15.7 -2.7 +19.7
  Dec 07, 2024 352   Buffalo W 65-55 96%     8 - 1 -5.7 -7.5 +2.8
  Dec 14, 2024 79   Providence W 74-70 38%     9 - 1 +11.3 +13.0 -1.2
  Dec 17, 2024 228   @ Siena W 65-48 69%     10 - 1 +15.9 -4.5 +21.3
  Dec 21, 2024 319   Niagara W 71-52 92%     11 - 1 +7.2 -2.0 +11.0
  Dec 31, 2024 34   Virginia Commonwealth W 77-75 26%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +12.6 +19.8 -6.9
  Jan 04, 2025 204   @ Fordham W 86-66 65%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +20.2 +17.3 +4.0
  Jan 08, 2025 109   @ Saint Louis L 68-73 43%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +0.9 +2.4 -1.7
  Jan 11, 2025 236   La Salle L 82-83 OT 84%     13 - 3 2 - 2 -7.6 +7.0 -14.6
  Jan 15, 2025 218   Richmond W 63-49 82%     14 - 3 3 - 2 +8.3 +2.7 +9.0
  Jan 18, 2025 132   @ Duquesne L 57-75 50%     14 - 4 3 - 3 -13.8 -5.0 -11.0
  Jan 21, 2025 75   George Mason L 62-75 46%     14 - 5 3 - 4 -7.9 +0.8 -9.7
  Jan 24, 2025 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-75 14%     14 - 6 3 - 5 +1.7 -0.4 +1.4
  Jan 28, 2025 83   Dayton W 75-53 49%     15 - 6 4 - 5 +26.2 +19.5 +12.0
  Feb 01, 2025 204   Fordham W 74-72 80%     16 - 6 5 - 5 -2.9 +7.2 -9.8
  Feb 04, 2025 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-77 43%     16 - 7 5 - 6 -18.1 -13.0 -6.2
  Feb 09, 2025 117   George Washington L 52-62 64%     16 - 8 5 - 7 -9.8 -15.0 +4.3
  Feb 12, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 64-68 47%     16 - 9 5 - 8 +0.8 -0.3 +0.8
  Feb 15, 2025 168   @ Massachusetts W 73-59 57%     17 - 9 6 - 8 +16.2 +1.9 +14.0
  Feb 22, 2025 132   Duquesne W 66-61 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 78   @ Saint Joseph's L 64-70 28%    
  Mar 05, 2025 168   Massachusetts W 72-65 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 129   @ Davidson L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 1.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.9 3.6 4.5 5th
6th 0.4 11.7 3.0 15.1 6th
7th 7.1 14.7 0.5 22.2 7th
8th 0.3 15.9 3.0 19.2 8th
9th 2.8 12.0 0.1 14.9 9th
10th 7.5 2.7 10.2 10th
11th 0.5 7.3 0.2 8.0 11th
12th 2.5 1.8 4.4 12th
13th 0.3 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 14th
15th 15th
Total 3.4 19.7 38.3 30.4 8.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 8.3% 5.6% 5.4% 0.1% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 0.1%
9-9 30.4% 3.2% 3.2% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 29.4
8-10 38.3% 2.1% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 37.4
7-11 19.7% 1.4% 1.4% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.4
6-12 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 3.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.6 40.0 57.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 0.8% 11.0 0.8
Lose Out 1.1%