Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#64
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#35
Pace67.2#250
Improvement-1.5#323

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#78
First Shot+2.4#99
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#114
Layup/Dunks+3.5#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#133
Freethrows+0.3#173
Improvement-1.1#332

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#53
First Shot+2.7#99
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#54
Layups/Dunks+3.8#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#170
Freethrows+1.3#109
Improvement-0.4#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 2.4% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.7% 5.3% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.1% 31.2% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.9% 13.2% 4.4%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 10.3
.500 or above 93.8% 95.5% 83.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 89.8% 80.4%
Conference Champion 27.3% 28.9% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four3.1% 3.4% 1.5%
First Round27.6% 29.6% 15.7%
Second Round12.5% 13.7% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 4.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 313 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 343   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +14.9 +8.0 +6.7
  Nov 09, 2024 74   Northwestern W 71-66 64%     2 - 0 +9.7 +2.4 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2024 246   Ball St. W 77-69 92%     3 - 0 +0.7 -0.4 +1.1
  Nov 20, 2024 153   New Mexico St. W 74-63 86%    
  Nov 25, 2024 7   North Carolina L 73-82 20%    
  Dec 03, 2024 319   Western Michigan W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 07, 2024 283   Lehigh W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 15   Marquette L 70-73 38%    
  Dec 17, 2024 97   UNLV W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 20, 2024 18   Cincinnati L 67-73 31%    
  Dec 31, 2024 120   La Salle W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 143   @ George Washington W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 129   @ Massachusetts W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 15, 2025 96   George Mason W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 105   Loyola Chicago W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 207   @ Duquesne W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 24, 2025 100   Saint Joseph's W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 114   @ St. Bonaventure W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 31, 2025 101   @ Saint Louis W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 130   Davidson W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 07, 2025 50   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 161   @ Fordham W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 207   Duquesne W 75-61 88%    
  Feb 21, 2025 105   @ Loyola Chicago W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 117   @ Rhode Island W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 197   Richmond W 74-61 87%    
  Mar 04, 2025 101   Saint Louis W 78-71 71%    
  Mar 07, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.0 7.7 6.4 3.3 1.0 27.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.2 5.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 5.3 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.8 0.2 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.9 7.3 9.5 11.7 13.2 13.6 12.3 9.9 6.8 3.3 1.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.9% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 94.9% 6.4    5.5 0.9 0.0
15-3 78.5% 7.7    5.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.6% 6.0    2.6 2.4 0.9 0.1
13-5 18.4% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 18.1 6.7 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 94.3% 59.1% 35.2% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 86.2%
17-1 3.3% 90.2% 47.7% 42.5% 5.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 81.2%
16-2 6.8% 76.7% 41.9% 34.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 59.9%
15-3 9.9% 60.0% 35.3% 24.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 0.3 3.9 38.2%
14-4 12.3% 42.5% 28.3% 14.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.1 19.8%
13-5 13.6% 28.6% 22.1% 6.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.2 0.9 0.0 9.7 8.4%
12-6 13.2% 18.7% 16.2% 2.5% 11.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 10.7 2.9%
11-7 11.7% 11.6% 11.1% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.5%
10-8 9.5% 6.9% 6.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.8 0.1%
9-9 7.3% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0%
8-10 4.9% 2.9% 2.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 3.1% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 29.1% 19.5% 9.5% 9.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.8 4.2 9.3 4.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 70.9 11.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 27.6 34.5 27.6 10.3