Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#83
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#76
Pace64.6#276
Improvement-5.6#348

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#47
First Shot+5.5#51
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#145
Layup/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows+1.6#81
Improvement-3.2#319

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#155
First Shot+0.4#168
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#153
Layups/Dunks+3.4#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#167
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement-2.5#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 10.4% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 100.0% 97.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round8.5% 10.1% 6.5%
Second Round1.8% 2.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 3
Quad 23 - 65 - 9
Quad 38 - 213 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 331   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 96%     1 - 0 +16.9 +6.3 +10.3
  Nov 09, 2024 58   Northwestern W 71-66 46%     2 - 0 +12.7 +3.6 +9.2
  Nov 13, 2024 261   Ball St. W 77-69 91%     3 - 0 +0.0 -2.8 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2024 146   New Mexico St. W 74-53 79%     4 - 0 +19.3 +14.8 +7.7
  Nov 25, 2024 40   North Carolina L 90-92 30%     4 - 1 +10.1 +13.3 -3.0
  Nov 26, 2024 9   Iowa St. L 84-89 14%     4 - 2 +13.7 +23.1 -9.5
  Nov 27, 2024 32   Connecticut W 85-67 24%     5 - 2 +32.1 +23.5 +10.1
  Dec 03, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 77-69 94%     6 - 2 -2.4 +12.8 -13.8
  Dec 07, 2024 279   Lehigh W 86-62 92%     7 - 2 +14.9 +19.8 -2.2
  Dec 14, 2024 29   Marquette W 71-63 30%     8 - 2 +20.2 +13.7 +7.5
  Dec 17, 2024 98   UNLV W 66-65 67%     9 - 2 +3.4 +7.3 -3.7
  Dec 20, 2024 46   Cincinnati L 59-66 33%     9 - 3 +4.3 -0.1 +3.7
  Dec 31, 2024 236   La Salle W 84-70 89%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +7.4 +0.1 +5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 117   @ George Washington L 62-82 56%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -14.7 -4.9 -10.5
  Jan 08, 2025 168   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 67%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -1.8 +2.5 -4.4
  Jan 15, 2025 75   George Mason L 59-67 57%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -2.9 +4.7 -9.1
  Jan 18, 2025 110   Loyola Chicago W 83-81 OT 72%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +2.8 +7.1 -4.5
  Jan 21, 2025 132   @ Duquesne W 82-62 60%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +24.2 +19.1 +6.5
  Jan 24, 2025 78   Saint Joseph's W 77-72 58%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +9.8 +12.0 -1.9
  Jan 28, 2025 106   @ St. Bonaventure L 53-75 51%     13 - 7 4 - 4 -15.4 -2.5 -18.2
  Jan 31, 2025 109   @ Saint Louis W 71-63 53%     14 - 7 5 - 4 +13.9 +4.4 +9.9
  Feb 04, 2025 129   Davidson W 69-63 77%     15 - 7 6 - 4 +5.2 +0.7 +5.1
  Feb 07, 2025 34   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 36%     15 - 8 6 - 5 +5.6 +1.6 +4.0
  Feb 12, 2025 204   @ Fordham W 93-76 74%     16 - 8 7 - 5 +17.2 +28.2 -9.4
  Feb 15, 2025 132   Duquesne W 77-76 77%     17 - 8 8 - 5 +0.1 +10.7 -10.6
  Feb 21, 2025 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 53%     17 - 9 8 - 6 +1.9 +3.0 -1.1
  Feb 26, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island W 77-75 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 218   Richmond W 75-63 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 109   Saint Louis W 76-70 73%    
  Mar 07, 2025 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-76 19%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.8 5.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 7.0 19.9 2.6 29.6 4th
5th 1.5 25.1 11.1 0.3 37.9 5th
6th 0.1 7.8 6.8 0.1 14.8 6th
7th 0.4 3.6 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.5 0.6 1.1 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 1.3 13.6 39.3 37.8 8.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.0% 16.2% 15.2% 1.0% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 6.7 1.2%
11-7 37.8% 10.7% 10.4% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 2.4 1.6 0.0 33.7 0.4%
10-8 39.3% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 11.5 1.3 1.4 0.0 36.7 0.0%
9-9 13.6% 4.6% 4.6% 11.7 0.2 0.4 13.0
8-10 1.3% 7.5% 7.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.7% 8.5% 0.2% 11.4 0.1 0.3 4.8 3.5 0.0 91.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 10.8 3.3 19.0 71.1 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 2.6% 11.0 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7% 1.1% 11.7 0.4 0.7
Lose Out 0.4%